Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Holmes]

With so many Democrats and only one Republican, is getting 15-20% and a spot in the runoff (to be killed, I know) too much to ask for?

It is too much to ask for, yes.

[Holmes]

Any results yet?

Not for another 2+ hours.

[Holmes]

This district would have a latino/asian electoral battle.

[Holmes]

current 100 vote margin between the Green party candidate and the republican...
Unfortunately Campoverdi is only doing slightly better than the Candidate from the NPP(?)(whats that?)

No party preference.

[Holmes]

Well yeah. If this were KS-03 then it would be a different story.

[Holmes]

Honestly this is the type of open seat that could cause an upset and be winnable provided the Democrat had longer to campaign, and money was actually being spent on him. Republicans are dirt in the state, the only reason Democrats aren't making the big gains they normally would in any other state is because they're dirt in Kansas too. But in 2018 with an open governor's seat and some other statewide offices, just maybe.

[Holmes]

An overwhelmingly white red state is safe Republican, no different than Kander in Missouri. They always make noises about considering a moderate Democrat, but will come home in the end.

Kander is not a moderate. If he and Hillary had been elected, he would have voted with Hillary 99% of the time.

I guess in the same way that Collins is not a moderate, then.

[Holmes]

If this were an open seat in KS-02, it would be winnable for Democrats. If it were KS-03, it'd probably lean Democrat at this point. But it's neither.

[Holmes]

Either way it's probably why they're running around screaming like the sky is falling.

[Holmes]

Any reports on turnout?

[Holmes]

If the race ends up within single digits, then Thompson will have had crossover appeal, but I don't know how to quantify "lots" in this case.

[Holmes]

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk  
Early returns in Sedgwick County show strongest Trump precincts coming in weaker for Estes. Strongest Clinton stronger for Thompson. #KS04

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk
GO - Trump 68%, Estes 56%
DB42 - Trump 67%, Estes 57%
410 - Trump 67%, Estes 49%
GY01 - Trump 70%, Estes 53%
531 - Trump 67%, Estes 53%

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Some core Dem precincts in Wichita, still very early:
116 - Clinton 89%, Thomp 97%
117 - Clinton 90%, Thomp 98%
118 - Clinton 82%, Thomp 94%

Some precincts voting nearly 100% Thompson. lol

[Holmes]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

Candidate quality matters and you can't win 'em all.

[Holmes]

If Thompson wins here, which is beginning to look more likely with each passing minute, it'll also show the strength of grassroots like Our Revolution. The DCCC didn't enter into this race until the twilight hour.

Might not be a bad strategy in some places. Let the grassroots lay the strategy and the groundwork, and the DCCC can pitch in at the end to help seal the deal.

[Holmes]

So the farther away from Wichita you get, the less anti-Trump the vote is.

[Holmes]

I see two possibilities. The rural counties carry Estes over the finish line, or Wichita and surrounding burbs betray Republicans and elect Thompson.

[Holmes]

Well Thompson has a base here now. He can run statewide if he wants, or actually campaign here over the next year and a half and hope for better results. A Democrats might even provide coattails if they're winning the governor's race. Maybe.

[Holmes]

Do people forget kansas 2014?

This state should not be considered any sort of microcosm.

GA-6 far more interesting.

Republicans better hope Trump doesn't do to the country what Brownback did to Kansas.

[Holmes]

So Jenkins next door is retiring in 2018...

[Holmes]

Thompson just announced he's running for KS-4 in 2018. Lol.

Well like I said, he has a base now. He needs to visit and campaign in the rural areas.

[Holmes]

Thompson: "We've sent a message that no Republican district is safe."

     If this persuades Democrats to waste money in districts they will never win, I can't complain.

On the flip side, Republicans were the ones spending hundreds of thousands of dollars here.

[Holmes]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

Maps please

[Holmes]

Yeah, Kirkpatrick has it. The margin will increase with only Cobb left but if Triebsch can stay above 40-41%, it wouldn't be a bad result.

[Holmes]

^Not seeing numbers anywhere. AP doesn't have it (which is what NYT uses), and neither does the SOS or DDHQ.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)         55.43%    7,920
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)  44.57%    6,368

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/69574/Web02-state/#/

The Fulton County part of the district is all in. The Cobb County part still reporting.  Kirkpatrick should have this.

For reference, Ossoff got 43% in the jungle primary in the area overlapping this. I think it might be fair to say that this area in general is no longer rock ribbed

So a first-time Democratic candidate running a pretty bare-bones campaign financially-speaking managed to basically a) match Clinton's margin and b) match Ossoff's share of the vote here in a runoff held separately from the congressional runoff. That says a lot, even before considering she got close to 45% of the vote in one of the most historically-GOP areas of the state.

Maybe "the Discrepancy" (as I've called it) involving metro ATL voters being more GOP downballot is finally starting to dissolve...or maybe it dissolves whenever an incumbent is out of the picture and the area(s) start voting more like what demography would suggest.  

I do think you make a good point about incumbency. I can see voters in this district voting for a Democrat for President or in an open race, they did it last November and last month. But Price and Isakson performed very well here too. I think next year's gubernatorial race will be interesting here, at least if Democrats run a good candidate.

[Holmes]

Hold your horses on what? I literally said wait and see.