Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Badger]

^ That doesn't really make sense. Thompson needs to at least come within 2 points in every county to win? There's no reason he needs that in the counties in the district that were >80% Trump.

He clarified:

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten  1h1 hour ago
Let me clarify again (cause I'm being unclear), the center is what you should be looking at. Updated column heads.

So is Cowley sort of a bellwether county here?

EDIT: Never mind. I finally see what Enten means. I think.

[Badger]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

[Badger]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

Yes, but Clinton's campaign had a massive early vote operation, which probably cannibalized much of their Election Day vote.  Did Thompson have anything similar going on?

I don't know for sure, but I'm running the assumption that Democrats tend to concentrate heavily on early voting

[Badger]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

Really? What was FL? I recall the EV there being ugly for Trump.

 From that observation, I'm starting to suspect Estes is toast.

[Badger]

What share of Sedgewick is in?

[Badger]

Enten said Thompson needs to win Sedgewick by around 9 to have a chance at pulling this off.

What's it at now?

[Badger]

Am I missing something or is everyone missing the fact that Sedgewick appears to be largely out and Thompson is romping there? Even given the Democratic League of early voters, I'm not sure why there's so much pessimism among Democrats right now.

[Badger]

Sedgwick just had a dump.   Thompson's numbers dropped 2%.  

Ouch for Thompson

[Badger]

yeah, i also totally wonder why the DNC is not spending massively in GOP+ 30 or something Kansas races.

Because they can't smell opportunity when it's crammed up their nostrils

[Badger]

Sedgewick vote in?

[Badger]

Well thanks Democrats for blowing a shining opportunity.

Lol you gotta be kidding me... this was not a shining opportunity. Let's not act like this is fertile territory for Democrats. The fact that this is even somewhat close is reflective of Trump but mostly Brownback.

It was surprisingly competitive and the DNC pretty much ignored the race. This seat is needed for Democrats.

It would've been nice to have but it's not needed. There are dozens upon dozens of districts that are more likely to flip than this one. Plus, many of you are highly overrating how much of a difference a few dollars from the DCCC would've made.

Not at all considering how close this was.

[Badger]

Yeah, the Democrats are winning the house in 2018. Anyone who disputes that after a result like this is delusional

Possible, but not everywhere has a toxic GOP governor like Brownback.

But in 2018 everywhere will have a toxic GOP president

[Badger]

More likely that Estes wins by 9+ than he wins by

^^^

I don't think it's possible for Estes to win by 9%....there isn't enough left outside of Sedgwick and Sedgwick looks to be about even at best for Estes.

It's up to 5 right now

Well,  if that happens then the hype was kinda overblown, but the GOP still under-performed.

Yeah, massively.

Not notably. Massively.

And not with an Akin-like candidate either.

[Badger]

The Dem-Cheerleaders in this thread are forgetting how terrible a Candidate Estes is. He literally was sleepwalking through the entire campaign. He knew he had it in the bag and didn't even need to try. It looks like he was right too.  

You also have to remember that this is a special election. A lot of people probably don't even know that there is an election. According to the SOS numbers right now, 62 people voted in Pawnee County?

62.

That county was 1,904 for Trump 579 for Clinton.

And 62 people voted today.

He is the KS Secretary of State. Hardly an empty suit.

[Badger]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

Um, yes, a +27 Trump seat going by single digits to an underfunded political neophyte kinda ain't spin.

[Badger]

only the trolls are gloating, whoever knows anything about this stuff is quite serious.

Special elections are special. Turnout was by all accounts abysmal.

Also, what is happening in kansas is NOT happening in other states. The state is in the midst of a finance crisis, with the guy running today directly tied to it.

All politics is local.

Remember kansas during the 2014 national gop wave?

Everyone says this when their side got shorted.

[Badger]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

what spin? this is a district Trump won by nearly 30.

wow you guys averted complete disaster in a district you had no business losing. great job.

A Trump will win it again by 30 points.

Estes isn't Trump.

Yes, Trump is by every measure a far, far worse candidate.

Blaming this on Estes is profoundly obtuse.

[Badger]

Democrats poured MILLIONS into this seat. MILLIONS.

Republicans didn't.

Estes sleepwalked through the campaign.

"Estes was a particularly weak candidate. As a member of Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration, he scored a 2 of 10 score on candidate strength."

For reasons pointed out by other posters, you've crossed the line from being a hack to an outright idiot. Quit posting.

[Badger]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

Jeez. So my prediction about ED vote being overwhelmingly GOP was right?

[Badger]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

what spin? this is a district Trump won by nearly 30.

wow you guys averted complete disaster in a district you had no business losing. great job.

A Trump will win it again by 30 points.

Estes isn't Trump.

Yes, Trump is by every measure a far, far worse candidate.

Blaming this on Estes is profoundly obtuse.

So you so admit Trump won by 30, but then Trump is a worse candidate? The same candidate that ground your Hillary! goddess into paste?

First off, a******, please note the blue Avatar. I realize perfectly well unlike you that Trump is a POS, but I hardly means I have an ounce of love for Hillary.

Secondly, a little reality check for you which you consistently seem to be in need of. Hillary slammed Trump by over 3 million votes. He is present only because of that b******* anachronism called The Electoral College. So again, kindly get a clue before you spout off.

Thirdly, yes Trump is a horrible can it. He's the only candidate that could have possibly lost to Hillary, and actually did in terms of, you know, actual number of votes. Add to the fact that his entire presidency for the last few months has been nothing but a unmitigated dumpster fire comma he is Forsworn a lot of his blue collar support by running basically is a billionaire on economic policy comma and yes he is a sh**tbird candidate.

Didn't I tell you to stop posting? Stop posting. Your posts are bad and you should feel bad. Come back once you reach your mid teens

[Badger]

Well, my ignore list got a new friend today.

Good idea.

[Badger]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

Maps please

I'll throw that in the to do list.

FWIW, here are the seats that flip: Alabama 2   Alaska AL   Arizona 2   Arkansas 2   California 1   California 10   California 21   California 25   California 39   California 42   California 45   California 48   California 49   Colorado 3   Colorado 6   Florida 3   Florida 6   Florida 15   Florida 16   Florida 18   Florida 26   Florida 27   Georgia 6   Georgia 7   Georgia 12   Illinois 6   Illinois 12   Illinois 13   Illinois 14   Indiana 2   Indiana 9   Iowa 1   Iowa 3   Iowa 4   Kansas 3   Kentucky 6   Maine 2   Michigan 1   Michigan 3   Michigan 6   Michigan 7   Michigan 8   Michigan 11   Minnesota 2   Minnesota 3   Missouri 2   Montana AL   Nebraska 2   Nevada 2   New Jersey 2   New Jersey 3   New Jersey 7   New Jersey 11   New York 1   New York 19   New York 22   New York 23   New York 24   North Carolina 2   North Carolina 5   North Carolina 6   North Carolina 7   North Carolina 8   North Carolina 9   North Carolina 13   Ohio 1   Oklahoma 5   Pennsylvania 6   Pennsylvania 7   Pennsylvania 8   Pennsylvania 12   Pennsylvania 15   Pennsylvania 16   South Carolina 1   South Carolina 5   South Carolina 7   Texas 6   Texas 7   Texas 10   Texas 14   Texas 21   Texas 22   Texas 23   Texas 24   Texas 25   Texas 27   Texas 31   Utah 4   Virginia 1   Virginia 2   Virginia 5   Virginia 7   Virginia 10   Washington 3   Washington 5   Washington 8   West Virginia 2   Wisconsin 6   Wisconsin 7

Heh.

(Also shows how brutal the Ohio gerrymander is, for what it's worth.)

I thought the same thing, but it also has to do with the lack of any bench in the Ohio Democratic Party. I tend to believe some of those Southern States would never be as elastic even in this highly hypothetical cenario comma whereas a lot of Ohio districts if a tsunami of this sort was coming could get decent local candidates to run and flip a number of seats that would fall outside of the mathematical calculus. But yes, the gerrymandering in Ohio is as bad as in any state

[Badger]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

Senator Tim Scott says hi, both as Senator from South Carolina and Congressman from SC-1.  

Not all African-Americans are Democrats.  It is perfectly possible for a black Republican to win in the South a majority white district.

This is true. There are some African-American Republican politicians who enjoy white support. Though almost all African American voters are indeed Democrats.

[Badger]

UT-3 Final Results:

Candidate       % Popular Vote   Popular Vote
JOHN CURTIS      43.27%   29733
CHRISTOPHER NILES HERROD      32.24%   22157
TANNER AINGE      24.49%   16831

Sad. Hopefully he will be primary challenged in 2018.

Not sad. There are more then enough right-wingers in Congress already

[Badger]

This is your party, Republicans

Y'all keep saying that, yet these kind of candidates (Moore, Trump) keep winning.

Yes, that's...that's the problem.