Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[smoltchanov]

Apparently Gomez supports a Single Payer, 15$ Min Wage, publicly financed elections, paid leave etc so he won't be that bad either ! Just shows how strong left the district is. The Republican has 0 chance.

In districts like this you can support communism and be elected comfortably. Especially when you know for sure that congressmen from other districts will NOT allow it to happen)))

[smoltchanov]

Unsurprisingly, Gomez and Ahn will advance to the runoff.

With so many Democrats and only one Republican, is getting 15-20% and a spot in the runoff (to be killed, I know) too much to ask for?

This didn't even come close to happening. The Republican candidate came in eighth with 3.76% of the vote, lower than the Green candidate.

Republicans seem to have no bench in this district. Even in many liberal Bay Area districts they are routinely able to get 20-25% of vote (which would be enough for runoff), but - not here..

[smoltchanov]

It was about 60-30 Pompeo in November. So, even a 15% loss will be a sort of victory for Democrats, whose base is very energized now. But Estes will, obviously, win. For Democrats to have a chance in such districts two things must happen: a very fringe lunatic Repubican candidate AND very moderate and well-known Democratic one (with crossover appeal). Neither happened in this race.

[smoltchanov]

Obviously - very good result for Democrats, giving them hope in Georgia. Especially because Democratic candidate was an unapologetic Berniecrat. Democrat managed to flip Sedgwick county first time in many years, and ran decent in suburbs, while being crushed in more rural areas (lightly populated), as usual in last years.  May be Democrat with more appeal in these areas could do even better, but still very good result for them..

[smoltchanov]

^ Yes and No.

Yes:

1. Specials have their own dynamics. They are, usually, "activists driven": it's, mostly, activists, who vote, turnout is low, and, usually, opposition party activists are much more organized and energized then those, supporting "powers that be".

2. Estes was rather mediocre candidate, and had not one, but two albatrosses around his neck: Trump and Brownback

No:

1. Nevertheless, there were no scandals about Estes, Democratic candidate wasn't "a moderate with broad crossover appeal", but commited Berniecrat, and he still managed to shave 20+ % from "typical Republican advantage" of late in this district: 7% instead of 27 (Trump) and 31 (Pompeo) in November. And this is NOT a "high-income, highly educated suburban district", like those that heavily swung to Clinton in 2016. Rather vice versa. (BTW - Roberts was unpopular too, so his percentages can't be considered a "norm" for this district)

2. Democrat won one county only, but it is the biggest county by far, while rural Republican counties have very few people. Somewhat better result in suburban counties (and it's there, where Democrats make gains of late), slightly better candidate, and it would be not simply good (as is this time), but, at least, extremely close.


Georgia will show. There we have s purely suburban highly educated district, no Brownback (though Trump is still there), slightly less (IMHO) socially conservative tradition, and energetic, well funded (but rather inexperienced and somewhat "too left" for this district) Democratic candidate. It may be more "of trend" then KS-04.

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

[smoltchanov]

This district Bishop originally ran in 25 years ago was majority African-American, I believe, and incumbency has helped him avoid challengers as the minority share of the population dipped into the 40s. It's not really comparable to SC-5.

In Statistical Atlas GA-02 listed as 51.4% Black, SA-05 - only 27.2%. That's not simply "a difference", that's "enormous difference")))) Before recent polarization people like Spratt could forge a biracial coalition and win. Usually - no more...

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often. 

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

[smoltchanov]

Senator Tim Scott says hi, both as Senator from South Carolina and Congressman from SC-1.  

Not all African-Americans are Democrats.  It is perfectly possible for a black Republican to win in the South a majority white district.

I know that. But i meant Black Democrats, because somebody stated, that the best candidate in SC-05 for Democrats would be Black. In most cases Black Democratic candidate in majority-white southern districts is (politically correct speaking) ... far from being the most electable Democratic candidate... Gwen Graham managed defeat Southerland in old FL-02 in 2014, but i am ready to bet substantial money that that district would never elect Black Democrat...

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often. 

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

As i said above - Florida, from Orlando down South, is NOT typically southern state. Would he win South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisisana or Arkansas  - another matter (typical southern states without great metropolises). In SC-05 we don't have metropolises or even their close suburbs (as in GA-06), so i consider my reasoning valid..

Obama won Florida in 2012

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

As i said above - Florida, from Orlando down South, is NOT typically southern state. Would he win South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisisana or Arkansas  - another matter (typical southern states without great metropolises). In SC-05 we don't have metropolises or even their close suburbs (as in GA-06), so i consider my reasoning valid..

Obama won Florida in 2012

Please don't put your replies in my post.  Also Orlando is definitely a southern city.

When post is so long - it's not difficult to err. About Orlando - i meant in political sense, not geographically... . Well, let's simply agree to disagree: i seem unable to convince you, and you surely (i know that, it's quite difficult thing to do in ANY case, and you don't present too much arguments or numbers...) will not convince me... So - there is no sense to continue..

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

As i said above - Florida, from Orlando down South, is NOT typically southern state. Would he win South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisisana or Arkansas  - another matter (typical southern states without great metropolises). In SC-05 we don't have metropolises or even their close suburbs (as in GA-06), so i consider my reasoning valid..

Obama won Florida in 2012

Please don't put your replies in my post.  Also Orlando is definitely a southern city.

When post is so long - it's not difficult to err. About Orlando - i meant in political sense, not geographically... . Well, let's simply agree to disagree: i seem unable to convince you, and you surely (i know that, it's quite difficult thing to do in ANY case, and you don't present too much arguments or numbers...) will not convince me... So - there is no sense to continue..

Just out of curiosity, what exactly do you think my initial claim was?  

As i see - that i generalize too much (with Sanford Boshop example, which didn't convince me too much). Well, may be, but i used words "as a rule" (which allows for exceptions, but - relatively rare exceptions).... Urban areas (Charlotte, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, NoVA, Research Triangle, big Texas metropolises. and so on) have it's own political dynamics, where "metropolization" may trump race. Rural  and small city southern areas - very rare. Yes, they can vote for conservative black Republican (like Scott in South Carolina), but that's almost all. They will NOT (usually) vote for liberal or even moderate Black Democrat... Because of area history and traditions, which they inherited from their ancestors... Hence i usually consider a fact, that such and such  Democratic candidate in the South is Black, as not plus, but rather a minus to his/her electability.. Except, obviously, majority-minority districts, where it can be a BIG plus...

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, i know that it's possible for Black candidate to win majority-white Southern district. Sometimes - even a rural one. IIRC - in 2007 Black Democrat won state Senate seat in Mississippi which was rural and more then 95% white (he lost it later, but it's another story). But it's still a big rarity... So, my point was that "being Black" doesn't in any way increases electoral chances of candidate in southern majority-white (especially - more or less rural) districts, and to state that such candidate "would be the best, because he/she is Black" is a mistake. Black candidate can win there, but he/she must have other outstanding qualities and "happen to be Black", not be a "Black candidate".

And when i speak about whether such and such area is "Southern" i mean strictly political tradition and preferences. A words of one North Florida political commentator about his state come to mind: "I'm convinced that the further south you drive, the further north you get"...

P.S. The same about white politicians in majority-Black seats: Steve Cohen now wins convincingly, but was regularily primaried by Black candidates, many of whom spoke about "this being a Black seat", before. The same with members of state legislatures (Patricia Todd in Alabama, and some other). Racial polarization in voting is still high enough..

[smoltchanov]

I forget the results in his first race, but Cohen won in his primaries in a landslide every time he sought re-election in TN-9.

Cohen won 30-25-12 in his first primary. AFTER that he really won convincingly (the closest being 66-32), but was primaried every election.

P.S. Well, i literally quoted North Florida columnist from Pensacola..

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, as i already said - let's agree to disagree and respect each other opinions...

[smoltchanov]

Can Roy Moore seriously be senator? OMG

From Alabama? Easily...

[smoltchanov]

It's rare that you actually upgrade during a GOP primary. Curtis seems a marked improvement over Chaffetz

+1. Pragmatic conservative is the best you can get from this district.

[smoltchanov]

Is there an AL-Sen county map?

On NY Times page, i think...

[smoltchanov]

UT-3 Final Results:

Candidate       % Popular Vote   Popular Vote
JOHN CURTIS      43.27%   29733
CHRISTOPHER NILES HERROD      32.24%   22157
TANNER AINGE      24.49%   16831

Sad. Hopefully he will be primary challenged in 2018.

Not sad. There are more then enough right-wingers in Congress already

[smoltchanov]

But if fairness, the scandal hadn't truly blown open until after 06.

Does anyone truly believe a +30 R district would elect a Democrat if the incumbent was involved in such a scandal?

No. It could elect Libertarian or even Constitutional party candidate (or another far rightist), but - not a Democrat...

[smoltchanov]

But if fairness, the scandal hadn't truly blown open until after 06.

Does anyone truly believe a +30 R district would elect a Democrat if the incumbent was involved in such a scandal?

No. It could elect Libertarian or even Constitutional party candidate (or another far rightist), but - not a Democrat...

When has that ever happened?

AFAIK - no, but probability of this is higher then probability of electing Democrat in such district.

[smoltchanov]

Rick Saccone (R) - State Rep., College Professor & Retired USAF Officer has been chosen at the Republican nominating convention to be their candidate in Pennsylvania 18 to replace Tim Murphy.

http://www.politicspa.com/saccone-wins-pa-18-nomination/85345/

Republican are consistent now - they choose the most ultra-rightist candidates almost invariably. Even in this conservative district they had more normal alternatives, but - ....

[smoltchanov]

In one word - excellent!. Of course, every "normal" conservative Republican would win this seat, but Republicans managed to nominate the only one, who could (and MUST!) lose, and, thanks God, he did.

[smoltchanov]

Very good result for Democrats, obviously....