ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are
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  ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are
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Author Topic: ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are  (Read 106573 times)
Cactus Jack
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« Reply #100 on: August 16, 2017, 03:19:48 PM »

Well, he's at least better than a Some Dude, but Heitkamp still has this. She's probably the best Democratic campaigner in the Senate and the NDGOP is a political punchline.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #101 on: August 16, 2017, 08:08:25 PM »

Tom Campbell is in
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #102 on: August 16, 2017, 08:12:38 PM »


Lean D
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Coraxion
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« Reply #103 on: August 16, 2017, 08:20:35 PM »

This would be a great target for the GOP on paper, but it really seems to be the worst opportunity for them among the 5 "red" (Atlas blue) states.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #104 on: August 16, 2017, 08:29:07 PM »

I'm ready for one spicey negative Republican primary.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #105 on: August 16, 2017, 10:08:18 PM »


Never trust anybody with chiclets for teeth.
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SATW
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« Reply #106 on: August 16, 2017, 10:47:58 PM »


I'm all in for Campbell.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #107 on: August 16, 2017, 11:56:46 PM »

she is one of the most brilliant campaigners this nation has ever had.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #108 on: August 17, 2017, 12:07:03 AM »

Likely R, too polarized these days.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #109 on: August 17, 2017, 12:24:34 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2017, 12:26:34 AM by Saguaro »

Likely R, too polarized these days.

Polarization isn't a one-size-fits-all death sentence. North Dakota has been an unshakable Republican stronghold on the presidential level since the 1980s, but it sure didn't stop them from sending Conrad, Dorgan, and Pomeroy back to Congress in landslide victories for close to two decades.

The fact of the matter is that Heitkamp is popular, an absurdly competent campaigner, and a master of retail politics, running in a state that loves inoffensive moderates like her and (relatively) Hoeven. Couple that with the fact that the NDGOP is so incompetent that the best they have to run against Heitkamp is a state senator who oozes Generic Republican, and you have a race that doesn't even approach likely R.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #110 on: August 17, 2017, 12:39:06 AM »

Tossup if Cramer decides to run after all (and win the primary), Lean R with Campbell. With Berg or Becker jumps in its Tilt R, and if Neset jumps in its Lean R.

Only way it gets to Likely/Safe R is if Wrigley, Burgum or Samford jumps in, but they probably won't.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #111 on: August 17, 2017, 01:19:15 AM »

Tossup if Cramer decides to run after all (and win the primary), Lean R with Campbell. With Berg or Becker jumps in its Tilt R, and if Neset jumps in its Lean R.

Only way it gets to Likely/Safe R is if Wrigley, Burgum or Samford jumps in, but they probably won't.
Hahaha LOL no. Beset seems like a random Some Dude(tte), Burgum won't run, Berg and Becker have weaknesses (the former lost already and was horrible, the latter seems potentially polarizing based on last year's convention), and Campbell can easily be painted as an out of touch super rich guy, and a generic Republican. Heitkamp is in really good shape, and knows her state. Even hardcore Trump supporters seem to like her, and she's already been releasing positive ads in the state. Likely D.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #112 on: August 17, 2017, 01:29:39 AM »

NOTE (to the moderators): Sorry for creating a new thread when one already existed. Please merge into the mega thread. Thank you!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #113 on: August 19, 2017, 01:39:21 PM »
« Edited: August 19, 2017, 01:40:58 PM by Maxwell »

Campbell is Rick Berg-level boring, and if Cramer runs a Campbell-Cramer primary will be brutal, and Cramer would almost certainly be the victor.

I mean a Rick Berg redux may be enough to off Heitkamp, but I doubt it.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #114 on: August 27, 2017, 02:14:40 PM »
« Edited: August 27, 2017, 02:26:27 PM by MT Treasurer »

Campbell already pouring money in U.S. Senate race

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Assuming Cramer declines to run, I think he's probably the favorite to win the nomination. Apparently he's trying to replicate Burgum's success, but I agree that he comes across as slick.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #115 on: August 27, 2017, 02:19:56 PM »


Interesting, still Lean D, but he just might have a shot. 

Cramer better stay out though.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #116 on: September 14, 2017, 10:56:45 AM »

If it wasn't clear before, it is now official: Heitkamp is running for reelection
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #117 on: September 14, 2017, 11:10:18 AM »

Not at all news to me, I knew it all along. Of course she wants another (easy to win) six years in the Senate, WH wouldn't she!
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #118 on: September 15, 2017, 08:30:33 PM »

Also, this story is already several days old, but still:

With ‘good woman,’ did Donald Trump just help Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp get reelected?

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I also wonder if this means that Cramer won't run? Maybe Trump has seen internal polling showing Heitkamp up by 20+ points?
We'd probably be hearing reports of Republicans fretting in private if this was a big deal. Maybe there is internal polling showing Heitkamp pulling a Byron Dorgan/Kent Conrad-style landslide.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #119 on: September 16, 2017, 01:40:33 PM »

in July Morning Consult had her at 60-28, but the trump 'good woman' comment must have gave her a boost. my guess-

best
68-21
worst
56-36
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Kamala
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« Reply #120 on: September 16, 2017, 01:42:10 PM »

North of 63%.
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Pollster
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« Reply #121 on: September 16, 2017, 02:29:08 PM »

Low 60's
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Nyvin
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« Reply #122 on: September 16, 2017, 04:34:34 PM »

64-29
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #123 on: September 16, 2017, 04:54:59 PM »

64-25
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #124 on: September 16, 2017, 05:28:49 PM »

low 30s.
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