ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

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This is a race where the GOP should've been able to go to the North Dakota State Senate, grab the first warm body they can, and say "You're the candidate". Neset seems like a Plan D or E type candidate.

Surely the NDGOP can do better than even that - what about Dalrymple or Stenehjem? Especially the former - I haven't heard his name mentioned at all.

[Kamala]

Well, Heidi is officially in according to the FEC.

[Heisenberg]

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This is a race where the GOP should've been able to go to the North Dakota State Senate, grab the first warm body they can, and say "You're the candidate". Neset seems like a Plan D or E type candidate.

Surely the NDGOP can do better than even that - what about Dalrymple or Stenehjem? Especially the former - I haven't heard his name mentioned at all.

Dalrymple is up in age, and apparently some think he handled the DAPL protests poorly. Stenehjem is probably damaged from his ill-fated governor bid last year (which ended in a shockingly wide primary defeat).

[Mike Thick]

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This is a race where the GOP should've been able to go to the North Dakota State Senate, grab the first warm body they can, and say "You're the candidate". Neset seems like a Plan D or E type candidate.

Surely the NDGOP can do better than even that - what about Dalrymple or Stenehjem? Especially the former - I haven't heard his name mentioned at all.

Dalrymple is up in age, and apparently some think he handled the DAPL protests poorly. Stenehjem is probably damaged from his ill-fated governor bid last year (which ended in a shockingly wide primary defeat).

Didn't Burgum outspend him by some ridiculous margin? I might be misremembering, though

[Cactus Jack]

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This is a race where the GOP should've been able to go to the North Dakota State Senate, grab the first warm body they can, and say "You're the candidate". Neset seems like a Plan D or E type candidate.

Surely the NDGOP can do better than even that - what about Dalrymple or Stenehjem? Especially the former - I haven't heard his name mentioned at all.

Dalrymple is up in age, and apparently some think he handled the DAPL protests poorly. Stenehjem is probably damaged from his ill-fated governor bid last year (which ended in a shockingly wide primary defeat).

Didn't Burgum outspend him by some ridiculous margin? I might be misremembering, though

That, and I seem to recall Stenehjem being an appallingly boring candidate. Bizarrely enough, I'm pretty sure Burgum was also more moderate.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

[windjammer]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

Congratulations TN volunteer!

[Dr. Arch]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

What does she have that so many Democrats are missing???

[Cactus Jack]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

What does she have that so many Democrats are missing???

A personality.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

What does she have that so many Democrats are missing???

A personality.

It's a bit surprising how the GOP doesn't have a strong bench in the upper plains. If they don't give Heitkamp a good challenge, it could be a drag on Republican state legislators running for reelection.

[Cactus Jack]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

What does she have that so many Democrats are missing???

A personality.

It's a bit surprising how the GOP doesn't have a strong bench in the upper plains. If they don't give Heitkamp a good challenge, it could be a drag on Republican state legislators running for reelection.

I'd argue that the SDGOP has plenty of fine recruits lined up, but the Republican benches in North Dakota and Minnesota are awful. There's a good reason Collin Peterson and Tim Walz didn't go down even in massive Republican waves, and why Heitkamp won in the first place.

To address that last part, I'm not familiar with local Dakota politics, but I could see Heitkamp having appreciable coattails downballot if she ends up with a Strickland-tier opponent.

[_]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

Congratulations TN volunteer!

Doesn't matter, she's still DOA and the most vulnerable Democrat because the state trended Republican in 2016.

Kek

I'm moving this to Lean D now, Morning Consult is always Incumbent friendly, but pretty sure they're right on ND.

If Cramer is the nominee then its Safe D imo.

[publicunofficial]

Yeah I had Heitkamp pegged as DOA but the ball is very clearly in her court now.

[jamestroll]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

Congratulations TN volunteer!

Doesn't matter, she's still DOA and the most vulnerable Democrat because the state trended Republican in 2016.

Wow you are really becoming a hack now. I do not think Heitkamp is most vulnerable. She probably has the highest ceiling and lowest floor of any of the deep Trump state Democrats but I think the lack of a credible challenger and the type of year 2018 could shape up to be she probably ends up winning easily.

Just recently weren't you saying she was pretty safe?

[Heisenberg]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

Congratulations TN volunteer!

Doesn't matter, she's still DOA and the most vulnerable Democrat because the state trended Republican in 2016.

Wow you are really becoming a hack now. I do not think Heitkamp is most vulnerable. She probably has the highest ceiling and lowest floor of any of the deep Trump state Democrats but I think the lack of a credible challenger and the type of year 2018 could shape up to be she probably ends up winning easily.

Just recently weren't you saying she was pretty safe?

He was being sarcastic. It's pretty clear that he's making fun of all these posters (some of whom are Democrats) who think just because her race was close in 2012 and that Trump won the state by a huge margin last year, and it trended Republican all make her DOA.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Though I wonder if this race ends up being a joke could Heidi pull Bjorkman over the line in the AT race? 

[Cactus Jack]

Though I wonder if this race ends up being a joke could Heidi pull Bjorkman over the line in the AT race?  

Bjorkman is running for SD-AL, not ND-AL. That being said, if Cramer makes the lethal mistake of running against Heitkamp, his ensuing destruction might make the House race uncomfortably close for his GOP successor. Considering what a disaster the NDGOP is turning out to be, it really wouldn't surprise me.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Though I wonder if this race ends up being a joke could Heidi pull Bjorkman over the line in the AT race?  

Bjorkman is running for SD-AL, not ND-AL. That being said, if Cramer makes the lethal mistake of running against Heitkamp, his ensuing destruction might make the House race uncomfortably close for his GOP successor. Considering what a disaster the NDGOP is turning out to be, it really wouldn't surprise me.

I think you're neglecting Heitkamp's HYPER COATTAILS. The energy from the ND-SEN is gonna have a ripple effect across the entire upper plains. Calling it rn: SD-AL, MT-AL are Likely D and the next provincial elections in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are in a dead heat between the NDP and Liberals.  

[Cactus Jack]

Though I wonder if this race ends up being a joke could Heidi pull Bjorkman over the line in the AT race?  

Bjorkman is running for SD-AL, not ND-AL. That being said, if Cramer makes the lethal mistake of running against Heitkamp, his ensuing destruction might make the House race uncomfortably close for his GOP successor. Considering what a disaster the NDGOP is turning out to be, it really wouldn't surprise me.

I think you're neglecting Heitkamp's HYPER COATTAILS. The energy from the ND-SEN is gonna have a ripple effect across the entire upper plains. Calling it rn: SD-AL, MT-AL are Likely D and the next provincial elections in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are in a dead heat between the NDP and Liberals.  

Hey, now, I'm posting this at work. I can't start cackling like a hyena.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Okay in my defense it's the Dakota's

[Heisenberg]

Breaking.
Likely D, IMO. Heitkamp is super popular, retail politics matters in this state, and her vulnerability is overstated by some on this site. And LOL at the article saying she hasn't announced her intentions yet. She's clearly running, her fundraising numbers show it.

[JMT]

I imagine this also means that Rep. Kevin Cramer has decided not to run. Campbell previously said he was considering the House or Senate seat, and would run for whichever one Cramer wasn't running for. I expect while Cramer hasn't formally announced his intentions, he's likely privately decided to run for reelection instead of senate.

[NewYorkExpress]

I imagine this also means that Rep. Kevin Cramer has decided not to run. Campbell previously said he was considering the House or Senate seat, and would run for whichever one Cramer wasn't running for. I expect while Cramer hasn't formally announced his intentions, he's likely privately decided to run for reelection instead of senate.

Or it means Campbell is just frustrated with waiting for Cramer, or that he thinks Cramer is vulnerable in a primary (with some of things he's said, it's possible).

[JMT]

I imagine this also means that Rep. Kevin Cramer has decided not to run. Campbell previously said he was considering the House or Senate seat, and would run for whichever one Cramer wasn't running for. I expect while Cramer hasn't formally announced his intentions, he's likely privately decided to run for reelection instead of senate.

Or it means Campbell is just frustrated with waiting for Cramer, or that he thinks Cramer is vulnerable in a primary (with some of things he's said, it's possible).

That's certainly possible too. And if Cramer decides to run for Senate and Campbell wants to avoid a primary, he could drop down to the House race.

[_]

Lean D