ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[MT Treasurer]

More evidence that she should announce very soon...

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http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/heidi-heitkamp-fundraising-236882

Unfortunately, no Republican has announced a bid yet, which may be a sign of things to come. It's probably Heitkamp's race to lose.

[MT Treasurer]

Watch Cramer run and get crushes, Akin style

I doubt it. Ftr, this is what Cramer had to say:

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https://gantdaily.com/2017/04/15/nervous-about-gop-congressman-republicans-woo-new-north-dakota-senate-candidate/

Tbh, he kind of has a point.  I don't think conventional wisdom about who is supposedly "electable" is relevant anymore. Both of them could win, both of them could lose. No one knows for sure.

[MT Treasurer]

This is interesting:

http://www.grandforksherald.com/4276009-port-state-senator-tom-campbell-apparently-polling-ahead-potential-2018-run

I hope Campbell doesn't challenge Cramer, not that I expect either one to beat Heitkamp (but I believe Cramer would be stronger, honestly).

[MT Treasurer]

Now I understand why you think she's heavily favored. She's hard not to like.

If it weren't for polarization, I'd definitely rate this Safe D. But Lean/Likely D seems about right for now. She's probably going to steamroll her opponent anyway, though, regardless of whether 2018 is a good year for Rs or not.  

Why can't Republicans run candidates like Heitkamp everywhere?

[MT Treasurer]

Tom Campbell is in

[MT Treasurer]

Campbell already pouring money in U.S. Senate race

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Assuming Cramer declines to run, I think he's probably the favorite to win the nomination. Apparently he's trying to replicate Burgum's success, but I agree that he comes across as slick.

[MT Treasurer]

If it wasn't clear before, it is now official: Heitkamp is running for reelection

[MT Treasurer]

Cramer moving closer to decision

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[MT Treasurer]

Trump apparently encouraging Cramer to jump into the race

[MT Treasurer]

Kathy Neset (R) is apparently out, and Tammy Miller (R) isn't running either

[MT Treasurer]

Cramer hasn't made a final decision yet, but seems to be leaning heavily toward running against Heitkamp. He's also... uh, "fairly" confident that he'd beat her.

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https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/trump-urging-cramer-to-challenge-heitkamp
http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/government-and-politics/4380562-weighing-many-factors-cramer-considers-senate-race-and
http://www.wdaz.com/news/4382171-commentary-cramer-trending-toward-challenging-heitkamp

[MT Treasurer]

Rick Berg is out as well

[MT Treasurer]

Rick Berg is out as well

Guess they couldn't recruit a candidate with real teeth and now they're stuck with Campbell.

Maybe not real teeth, but real ads! swag

[MT Treasurer]

Thomas O'Neill, Air Force vet and anti-immigration candidate, is running

Former NDGOP chairman Gary Emineth is considering a run

And apparently, even Rob Port (!) doesn't quite share King Lear's optimism, to say the least

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[MT Treasurer]

Former North Dakota GOP head and Bismarck businessman Gary Emineth is strongly considering a run

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[MT Treasurer]

He’s in.

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[MT Treasurer]

Heitkamp up with her first ad:

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/heitkamp-first-ad-2018-n868946

[MT Treasurer]

Paging MT Treasurer:

https://m.soundcloud.com/user-765340169-697541373/holmes-north-dakota-senate-race-is-in-the-bag-for-gop

I mean, we’ll find out soon enough if all that confidence was warranted or not. I still don’t buy that Heitkamp is DOA, but I’m moving this from Lean D to Tossup since Cramer and ND/national Republicans have actually done a surprisingly good job in this race so far (*cough* MT *cough* WV *cough*). Some of the ads attacking Heitkamp's voting record and support for Hillary Clinton must have been pretty devastating, and Cramer being a popular statewide officeholder who comes across as authentic and is pretty good at retail politics doesn’t hurt.

http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/government-and-politics/4488280-cramer-goes-door-door-grand-forks

[MT Treasurer]

ND has fairly restrictive polling laws, but if this is indeed a ND poll, I’d guess Heitkamp +4 or something like that. I do think the race is much closer than that right now, but Marist has found, uh, very good numbers for Democrats everywhere this year.

[MT Treasurer]

Now I understand why you think she's heavily favored. She's hard not to like.

If it weren't for polarization, I'd definitely rate this Safe D. But Lean/Likely D seems about right for now. She's probably going to steamroll her opponent anyway, though, regardless of whether 2018 is a good year for Rs or not.  

Why can't Republicans run candidates like Heitkamp everywhere?

lmao

Still, I think moving it to Lean R was definitely premature, especially in an environment like this.

[MT Treasurer]

Apparently it’s the new trend to declare Heitkamp DOA. Of course she’s extremely unlikely to survive if Republicans are having a better than expected night, but there’s no way she’s a heavy underdog in a Democratic wave year. I’d still rate this Toss-up just to be cautious, especially after what happened in 2012 and some of the special elections this year.

[MT Treasurer]

Like FL, this race could easily still trend away from Republicans. Counting Heitkamp out is foolish.

[MT Treasurer]

These negative ads are easily the most effective ones, especially in states like MT and ND. Heitkamp knows what she’s doing.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m really not sure if releasing favorable polling data for only part of the state is a good sign of where things are headed for a campaign:

[MT Treasurer]

Heitkamp is a NO on Kavanaugh.

Excellent!