ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Heisenberg]

More evidence that she should announce very soon...

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http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/heidi-heitkamp-fundraising-236882

Unfortunately, no Republican has announced a bid yet, which may be a sign of things to come. It's probably Heitkamp's race to lose.

Yeah, I agree pretty much. Cramer should announce, and if he passes, State Sen. Tom Campbell, who plans to run for a federal drive next year, is decent fallback.

[Heisenberg]

Yeah, I agree pretty much. Cramer should announce, and if he passes, State Sen. Tom Campbell, who plans to run for a federal drive next year, is decent fallback.

I could also see Rick Becker winning in an upset, kinda like Doug Burgum. I think he would be the underdog in the general election, but I wouldn't underestimate him.

Honestly, I'm beginning to feel more optimistic about Republican chances in MT than ND, lol.

I don't really like Rick Becker, he seems too, eccentric, if you get what I'm saying. He's also a free market ideologue and seems hostile to Native American interests, as well as Agricultural subsidies, which will really hurt him, especially the latter, since the state greatly benefits from them.

[Heisenberg]

Yeah, I agree with the people in this thread. How anyone can think that this is an easier pickup for the GOP than IN or MO is beyond me. Even in a good year for Republicans and if Trump's approvals are in the high 60s in ND, I think that this is one of the races that will probably stay Democratic, kinda like VA in 2014. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if a state like FL or WI went Republican before ND.

If Heitkamp wins in 2018, I have little doubt that she will become a lifer. Thank you, Rick Berg. This is why open seats in supposedly "red" states should never, never, never be taken for granted by the Republican Party.

Yeah I really think Rick Berg is at fault. He should have just ran for reelection, and Cramer should have gone for this seat. Or Kalk, Schmidt, Wrigley, etc. the bench was big. Trying to jump to the upper chamber immediately after entering the lower chamber looks so bad, in general.

[Heisenberg]

Watch Cramer run and get crushes, Akin style

I doubt it. Ftr, this is what Cramer had to say:

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https://gantdaily.com/2017/04/15/nervous-about-gop-congressman-republicans-woo-new-north-dakota-senate-candidate/

Tbh, he kind of has a point.  I don't think conventional wisdom about who is supposedly "electable" is relevant anymore. Both of them could win, both of them could lose. No one knows for sure.

I totally agree. Of course, being the King of Town Hapls could still help Cramer.

[Heisenberg]

NDGOP Recruiting SBHE President Kathy Neset for Possible Senate Run

Sigh.

I know we've disagreed, but this seems like the next GOP recruitment failure.

I don't think recruitment failure is even the word, this was a lost cause from day one.

[Heisenberg]

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This is a race where the GOP should've been able to go to the North Dakota State Senate, grab the first warm body they can, and say "You're the candidate". Neset seems like a Plan D or E type candidate.

Surely the NDGOP can do better than even that - what about Dalrymple or Stenehjem? Especially the former - I haven't heard his name mentioned at all.

Dalrymple is up in age, and apparently some think he handled the DAPL protests poorly. Stenehjem is probably damaged from his ill-fated governor bid last year (which ended in a shockingly wide primary defeat).

[Heisenberg]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

Congratulations TN volunteer!

Doesn't matter, she's still DOA and the most vulnerable Democrat because the state trended Republican in 2016.

Wow you are really becoming a hack now. I do not think Heitkamp is most vulnerable. She probably has the highest ceiling and lowest floor of any of the deep Trump state Democrats but I think the lack of a credible challenger and the type of year 2018 could shape up to be she probably ends up winning easily.

Just recently weren't you saying she was pretty safe?

He was being sarcastic. It's pretty clear that he's making fun of all these posters (some of whom are Democrats) who think just because her race was close in 2012 and that Trump won the state by a huge margin last year, and it trended Republican all make her DOA.

[Heisenberg]

Breaking.
Likely D, IMO. Heitkamp is super popular, retail politics matters in this state, and her vulnerability is overstated by some on this site. And LOL at the article saying she hasn't announced her intentions yet. She's clearly running, her fundraising numbers show it.

[Heisenberg]

Tossup if Cramer decides to run after all (and win the primary), Lean R with Campbell. With Berg or Becker jumps in its Tilt R, and if Neset jumps in its Lean R.

Only way it gets to Likely/Safe R is if Wrigley, Burgum or Samford jumps in, but they probably won't.

Hahaha LOL no. Beset seems like a random Some Dude(tte), Burgum won't run, Berg and Becker have weaknesses (the former lost already and was horrible, the latter seems potentially polarizing based on last year's convention), and Campbell can easily be painted as an out of touch super rich guy, and a generic Republican. Heitkamp is in really good shape, and knows her state. Even hardcore Trump supporters seem to like her, and she's already been releasing positive ads in the state. Likely D.

[Heisenberg]

NOTE (to the moderators): Sorry for creating a new thread when one already existed. Please merge into the mega thread. Thank you!

[Heisenberg]

If it wasn't clear before, it is now official: Heitkamp is running for reelection

Not at all news to me, I knew it all along. Of course she wants another (easy to win) six years in the Senate, WH wouldn't she!