ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely R, too polarized these days.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

low 30s.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

low 30s.

 

ya sure bro?

No, I just think ND is too polar for her to win again.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

low 30s.

 

ya sure bro?

No, I just think ND is too polar for her to win again.

ah that makes more sense

I could be wrong though Bro. She's a decent fit, and Trump essentially endorsed her, and I have it as lean R, so it's still winable. Plus the GOP has put forth crap candidates, also keep in mind we don't have any precedents to our guesses, so we are taking shots into the dark.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Non-Atlasian colors, Campbell beats Heitkamp 53-45.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

RIP Heidi, twas nice having you in the senate. Either Campbell or Cramer will level her by a high single digit to mid double digit margin. Strong Lean R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

She is coming close to DOA.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

She is coming close to DOA.

Oh please

She has already proven to be able to lose statewide, and this is a perfect storm again, not everything is all fun and blue waves sheesh.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

She has already proven to be able to lose statewide, and this is a perfect storm again, not everything is all fun and blue waves sheesh.

How so? Also, why are you so bearish on Heitkamp’s chances but bullish on McCaskill, Tester, Manchin, etc.?

She lost in 2000, but now she’s the incumbent, and an incredibly popular one at that. I can see Tossup, but DOA is nonsense.

I am middle of the road on McCaskill, slight tilt D, but basically pure tossup, I am bearish on Tester now, I think he stands at lean R, I put it at Lean D till last may and then Assaultforte won and Tester swung hard left, I think he loses by 3-4 pts. Manchin, bullish yes. He is my favorite senator and so I tend to favor him a bit even in predicitions, and polling is showing him ahead, and he has never lost a statewide GE in WV either. He could definately lose though, but Lean D, I think he wins by high single digits.

Polls are down on her, GOP has great recruits, ND is going even harder red, etc. And she is popular, but Cramer outclasses her. Also, I said close to DOA, not DOA.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If anything, that got her sympathy votes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am bearish on Tester now, I think he stands at lean R, I put it at Lean D till last may and then Assaultforte won and Tester swung hard left, I think he loses by 3-4 pts.

He could lose, but I’d definitely not rate it Lean R. Lean D seems more reasonable, though you could also make a case for Tilt D or Tossup. I think you’re really underestimating how Democratic-friendly those states can be down-ballot. To many voters, personality and candidate quality matter a lot more than party affiliation.

There has been no polling for a Cramer vs. Heitkamp matchup, btw.

Tester was voting like a solid blue dog, and I was still thinking of a tossup to tilt D rating even after Assaultforte, but then he swung very left on voting after the obamacare repeal block during the summer.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When has Tester voted like a Blue Dog? He basically votes like a Western rural Democrat. Moderate but more populist than corporate. It’s not like MT has a fiscally conservative swing vote.

Moderates in the Billings suburbs.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am bearish on Tester now, I think he stands at lean R, I put it at Lean D till last may and then Assaultforte won and Tester swung hard left, I think he loses by 3-4 pts.

He could lose, but I’d definitely not rate it Lean R. Lean D seems more reasonable, though you could also make a case for Tilt D or Tossup. I think you’re really underestimating how Democratic-friendly those states can be down-ballot. To many voters, personality and candidate quality matter a lot more than party affiliation.

There has been no polling for a Cramer vs. Heitkamp matchup, btw.

Tester was voting like a solid blue dog, and I was still thinking of a tossup to tilt D rating even after Assaultforte, but then he swung very left on voting after the obamacare repeal block during the summer.

Holy sh!t you are so dumb. So are you actually arguing that him being the only Democrat in the Senate to vote for Trumpcare in the summer and for the tax "reform" bill would have benefitted him somehow from goodwill from R voters? LOL. He'd be getting primaried instead.

And that primary challenge would flop miserably.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

70%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't like Cramer but damn. RIP.

http://www.kvrr.com/2018/03/22/breaking-congressman-kevin-cramers-son-dies/

Geez, that sucks. RIP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, I feel kinda sorry for people like Jenkins and Cramer.

Btw, Heitkamp has a new ad out (“Battery Acid”), it’s pretty good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhGFdz0l7-Y

That's a great ad.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol, Cramer being a baby.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strong Lean R 53-45 for Cramer.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strong Lean R 53-45 for Cramer.

King Lear, is that you?

She has been down by 4 and 5 in two of the three polls. Saying she loses by 8 is not that much of a departure from reality. H&ll, it is even with the moe man.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strong Lean R 53-45 for Cramer.

King Lear, is that you?

She has been down by 4 and 5 in two of the three polls. Saying she loses by 8 is not that much of a departure from reality. H&ll, it is even with the moe man.

I do think that North Dakota will be one of if not the hardest state hit by the SCOTUS news for Democrats. North Dakota is very socially conservative and strongly pro-life. That being said, I don't think there is any reason to think that Heitkamp will lose by 8 at this point. Maybe SCOTUS turns a 2 or 3 point deficit into a 4 or 5 point loss, but we have not yet seen any evidence she will lose badly, or even that she's worse than a tossup.

Still think this race is merely tilt R, though I do think this is starting to look like it'll flip before any other Trump state seats outside of Indiana or (bizarrely) Florida.

How the h$ll am I King Lear when my guess falls within the moe of two of the three polls out?! Completely ridiculous and annoying!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strong Lean R 53-45 for Cramer.

King Lear, is that you?

She has been down by 4 and 5 in two of the three polls. Saying she loses by 8 is not that much of a departure from reality. H&ll, it is even with the moe man.

I do think that North Dakota will be one of if not the hardest state hit by the SCOTUS news for Democrats. North Dakota is very socially conservative and strongly pro-life. That being said, I don't think there is any reason to think that Heitkamp will lose by 8 at this point. Maybe SCOTUS turns a 2 or 3 point deficit into a 4 or 5 point loss, but we have not yet seen any evidence she will lose badly, or even that she's worse than a tossup.

Still think this race is merely tilt R, though I do think this is starting to look like it'll flip before any other Trump state seats outside of Indiana or (bizarrely) Florida.

How the h$ll am I King Lear when my guess falls within the moe of two of the three polls out?! Completely ridiculous and annoying!

The problem is that you are generally, from what Ive seen so far, the most hackish in favor of Reps when it comes to predictions. Yes, she is down in the polls, but she was in 2012. The campaign season has barely begun and Cramer has already said a load of stupid stuff. The tariffs are going to continually hammer the state. The state is elastic. Generally, I hate to make predictions this far out because there are too many variables that could swing the election one way or the other. Tossup is appropriate, Strong Lean R, at least this early, is not.

Bagel is definitely no an R hack in terms of elections. Hell, I can’t dver remember him getting a race wrong that he called for Rs.

Also Bagel, I never said you were king lear, that was the other guy. I just said I really highly doubt Heitkamp will lose by 8 - that is a big loss for an incumbent senator. I did agree that she may lose by more than many would like to admit is probably on this forum.

Well, I did guess Roy Moore would win 53-45, and that we were screwed in several special elections such as Wisconsin SD 10 where I projected a Jarchow win like a few minutes after the polls closed, so I am not perfect, nor am I even that good, but I sure as h$ll am not King Lear either.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Endorsement for Heidi today!

Grand Forks mayor endorses Hedi Heitkamp
http://www.westfargopioneer.com/news/government-and-politics/4471297-grand-forks-mayor-mike-brown-endorses-heidi-heitkamp-senate

He supported DT last election, BTW, and is mayor of the third largest city in ND.

So what, he's still a dem

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Heitkamp is a brilliant person and I am proud of her regardless of the outcome of this race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ND is a state where personality really matters. Cramer is rather poor in this category, where as Heidi is excellent. Sometimes, I wonder why we all worry about her, since she was losing polling by a large margin in a neutral year against the state congressman, and is now neck and neck with the state congressman in a very Blue year. But you can never be too careful.

It's never comfy when your incumbent is consistently down in a super red state. She could win but it's quite obvious why not even Red Atlasians are not comfy here.