ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

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Low 60's

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It will definitely be interesting to see if Heitkamp actually wins more counties than her Republican opponent this year. She could be the only red state Democrat to do so, although Manchin almost certainly will as well if he wins his race.

The 2012 map essentially broke along the media market lines: Heitkamp took the Fargo/Grand Forks market while Berg took the Bismark market. Your prediction is interesting - definitely should keep an eye on where Heitkamp buys her ads, and how big the buys are.

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This looks to be becoming a trend with Wagner in Missouri and now Cramer.

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Put the non-vulnerable House incumbent into an uphill battle against a popular incumbent in a possible wave so that the House seat is made potentially vulnerable by a weak candidate whose name has been on the air for months, will spend endlessly on his own behalf, and on whom opposition research has already been published?

Surely the national Dems are not savvy enough to pull off this level of ratf***ing.

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Doing some further research on this race, and it appears that the ND Dem Party is pulling out all the stops for 2018. Just a few weeks ago, the state SoS cleared for circulation the petitions of ballot measures to raise the state's minimum wage, overhaul the state's ethics laws, and legalize marijuana. If even one of these make it to the ballot, lots of potential benefit for Heitkamp.

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Heitkamp is a NO on Kavanaugh.

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Looks like she was either threatened with triage or made a deal for a large increase in air support:

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1047577538321678336

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Insanely bad idea and knee-jerky to pull out of the state - gives Heitkamp the opportunity to rebrand right when she needs to the most and close strong.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYeFsMNFzwM

This is such a good ad from Heidi(what else is new). On the heels of the Kavanaugh announcement, this is gonna help her.

Also helps that this will likely be the only ad playing on TV, because Cramer is underfunded and the NRs left the race(I will never get over this decision, its soooo dumb).

Apparently they only withdrew their reservation in the western portion of their state, where Heidi was going to get crushed anyway.

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45% republican likely seems too low even in a year with heightened Dem turnout, but an interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054808407704649730

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45% republican likely seems too low even in a year with heightened Dem turnout, but an interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054808407704649730

I’d be curious if his claim that that was the actual breakdown in the last 2-3 cycles, seeing as ND has no voter registration

This is the guy from Pharos Research, which made a splash in 2012 (and to be fair, put out some good numbers) but has disappeared since.

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More from this guy:

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1052393979143163905

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1052621715618951168

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1052622058104881152

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054463451685212160

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054643109865246720

https://twitter.com/leuchtman/status/1054643650204823553

He has also commented on a few other competitive races as well, notably MO and FL.

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While I do agree with the pollster that the electorate shown in the Cramer+16 was complete garbage, the numbers shown by the pollster for Political ID are waaaaay too rosy.

I would personally say an electorate around 48% R, 20% I, and 32% D, but hey, Im no expert on ND Political Identification politics.

Have only ever worked in North Dakota once, but this looks similar to the model we used, adjusted for population change.