ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Bidenworth2020]

she is one of the most brilliant campaigners this nation has ever had.

[Bidenworth2020]

in July Morning Consult had her at 60-28, but the trump 'good woman' comment must have gave her a boost. my guess-

best
68-21
worst
56-36

[Bidenworth2020]

low 30s.

 

ya sure bro?

[Bidenworth2020]

low 30s.

 

ya sure bro?

No, I just think ND is too polar for her to win again.

ah that makes more sense

[Bidenworth2020]

Trump apparently encouraging Cramer to jump into the race

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3rxpf8j63I

[Bidenworth2020]

So I'll assume Heitkamp was ahead by double digits in his internals?

[Bidenworth2020]

Rick Berg is out as well

Guess they couldn't recruit a candidate with real teeth and now they're stuck with Campbell.

Maybe not real teeth, but real ads! swag

That's the next US senator from North Dakota.

Isn't it past your bedtime?

I think someone with 138 IQ can decide his bedtime

[Bidenworth2020]

I’m moving it from Tilt D to Tossup but closer to Tilt R than Tilt D

thanks for the free laughs man, I need it right now!

[Bidenworth2020]

I feel like Heitkamp's chances at reelection would increase quite a bit if he ran/was the nominee.

[Bidenworth2020]

I’m moving it from Tilt D to Tossup but closer to Tilt R than Tilt D

Cramer got many more votes than Heitkamp in the 2012 election. Advantage to the GOP.

Trump got many more votes than Peterson in the 2016 election. Advantage to the GOP.

[Bidenworth2020]

Heitkamp DOA: http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kevin-cramer-ahead-heitkamp

It's an internal poll for an election half a year away, and the internal has Cramer up by only five points.

Oh no, you don't get to pull that card. We have polls in Colorado showing Gardner slightly down almost 3 years out and you guys pronounce him dead. One Democratic internal shows McCaskill up in the margin of error and Hawley is a goner. Don't give me that selective crap.

The difference is one is gonna win and one is gonna lose.

[Bidenworth2020]

Heitkamp DOA: http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kevin-cramer-ahead-heitkamp

It's an internal poll for an election half a year away, and the internal has Cramer up by only five points.

Oh no, you don't get to pull that card. We have polls in Colorado showing Gardner slightly down almost 3 years out and you guys pronounce him dead. One Democratic internal shows McCaskill up in the margin of error and Hawley is a goner. Don't give me that selective crap.

The difference is one is gonna win and one is gonna lose.

I'll hold you to this

sounds like a deal lol. You really do think Cramer is gonna win do you?

[Bidenworth2020]

RIP

hate to be the guy who moves the conversation, but anyone think he'll stop running, and if he doesnt, will he get sympathy votes?

[Bidenworth2020]

Wrong, this race is Safe R and Heitkamp has no chance of re-election. Democrats should just give it up now

More seriously, Cramer is the best GOP candidate but Heitkamp won in North Dakota with no incumbency advantage. She's fine.

Again, so did Cramer and with more votes. Barack Obama isn't on the ballot and Trump is fairly popular in ND.

LMAO at you thinking this will be even remotely close. she 57-43, no question (thats on the low end)

[Bidenworth2020]

safe dem atm

[Bidenworth2020]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/19/politics/heidi-heitkamp-to-vote-for-pompeo/index.html

lol cramer

[Bidenworth2020]

Heitkamp up with her first ad:

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/heitkamp-first-ad-2018-n868946

that is just so perfect, but the same thng ran in 2012

[Bidenworth2020]

Heitkamp's overall personality matters far more than any specific votes she has cast. The same holds true for other red state Democrats, particularly from smaller states like WV and MT. It’s unfortunate, but it’s just the way it is. It’s also why I never really bought Heitkamp being as vulnerable as most other people.

> implying she is very vulnerible at all

[Bidenworth2020]

Safe D-> Safer D

[Bidenworth2020]

Why in the world are people speculating about T***p's f**king nicknames as if people actually voted based on them?

Because it's fun and is an excellent example of how immature our current President is and what a stupid time we are living in.

And how immature are we for focusing on this instead of all the ways his administration is screwing over this country (or, in this case, instead of meaningful electoral news)?

Yep! He is screwing us with a roaring economy.

Yep!  He is screwing us by ending climate change boondoggle spending.  You know I would believe you lefties were serious about climate change if you supported nuclear energy. Instead you suport all sorts of wild spending schemes.

we do!

[Bidenworth2020]

I would not use this statistic, as the tariff situation, which did bring down his approvals in the state, is hard to see. Just use his current approval from Gallup in the state, which pegs it at 57% currently. And, while I do believe Gallup is a good source, its always good to take other sources, such as MC, Emerson, Yougov and other state by state approvals.

The idea that ND is losing its competativeness makes little sense. Yes, the Dems were devastated during the Obama years, but so were they in WV, MT, KY, and WI, and it seems like they are making a comeback in all of these states.

And for the fourth thing, you highlight my entire argument. The voters approve of Heidi only a little  bit less than they value Trump, according to Gallup numbers. They trust her. In fact, Cramer actually has a low approval, even though he should have the higher one, according to partisanship. That is a good sign for Heidi. Again, I view this as a tossup race, but I dont think either candidate has the advantage here.

The record certainly indicates that North Dakota has become a less competitive State over the last decade or so. It is possible, of course, that this trend will reverse, but that has undoubtedly been the trend. Furthermore, the President has now begun to actively campaign for Cramer, portraying Heitkamp, accurately in my view, as a consistently left-wing vote on most major issues. Furthermore, once insulated following re-election, the likelihood that she will cross party lines decreases dramatically which is a message that is being clearly articulated to North Dakota voters. Heitkamp is going to face a tremendous amount of pressure by the time of the election, so it is going to be difficult for her to win. Barring something substantial which negatively impacts the Republican party in the State between now and then, Heitkamp must be characterized as an underdog at this point. 

exactly, no one cares about rock bottom soy prices in the most agricultural state in the union

[Bidenworth2020]

watch all the pundits move it back once another random poll has Heidi up 12, lol

[Bidenworth2020]

Safest prediction ever: If the next poll shows a closer race, Cramer fans will cling to the Fox poll, while Heitkamp fans will say that they knew the Fox poll was wrong and that Heitkamp is still going to win. I swear, the dramatic reactions to single polls around here make me question why I spend so much time here. I guess it's going to be pretty bad, now that we're in the home stretch.

Anyway, I always thought Heitkamp would have a hard time for reasons I've explained before, and while she's struggling even more than I thought, it's not like losing a seat in ND means that the "Democrats are in disarray." The Fox polls themselves suggest that both McCaskill and Donnelly could survive even as Heitkamp gets crushed, if you take the polls at face value.

DKE is less reactive than this place

How many incumbents trailing by double digits in multiple polls a month before the election ended up winning in the end? I can't imagine there are very many. So no, it's not "overreaction" at all to think Heitkamp is screwed.

And again, there have been two polls showing her down double digits, not just one. So if anything, if a poll came out showing Cramer +3 or something that would be the outlier.

TWO double digit polls have come out. The DFM poll, which had Heidi doing the best, was by far the most accurate in 2012. Give me a break, lol. Heidi is still in this, and is gonna win IMO

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats don't even know that God exits as they're dragging every religious conservative to the mud.

yeah, the sexual assaulter in chief, a real role model to all christian conservatives, right? as well as the fact that Dems do believe in god, according to polls. How does this have to do with this thread?

http://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/belief-in-god/do-not-believe-in-god/party-affiliation/democratlean-dem/

[Bidenworth2020]

Well, at least Heitkamp has some integrity. That's more than can be said for a lot of politicians. I really don't think switching to a yes would've helped her, though. Republicans would've painted her as duplicitous, and still attacked her, and the Democrats might have cut her off entirely. She might be reasoning that it comes off better for her to stand her ground. We'll see if she's right or not. I know the pro-Kavanaugh folks want her to be wrong, but that's not how reality works.

Either way, it's dumb of the NRSC to pull out, since it really doesn't cost that much, and ND is small enough that if she and the Democrats have the advertising to themselves, this race could tighten back up.

she was on the verge of tears when she made the announcement publicly. This clearly isnt a vote of political strategy, but rather doing whats right. Good for her, I know almost no one else in Washington who'd do the same in her position.