ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[PragmaticPopulist]

Sexist or not, criticism of a journalist at MSNBC is red meat for the voters of North Dakota.

The "Heidi-Ho" ad in 2012 backfired spectacularly, even though Berg didn't even make any major gaffes like Cramer.

North Dakota has a lot of self-described "moderates". While the media is unpopular, I think it's overemphasized how much voters have that on their minds while voting, and I doubt a lot of moderate voters vote on that.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Sure, we had a fully Democratic congressional delegation, but it's not because we were a swing state...

The margins by which Dorgan and Conrad managed to win their elections are quite astounding, though. Dorgan nearly got 70% of the vote in 2004, but I'm sure someone on Atlas would have considered him vulnerable because of Bush coattails and how the state votes in presidential races. In SD, the GOP couldn't even beat Johnson in 2002 despite the fact that Bush had like a 70%+ approval rating in the state. They threw everything but the kitchen sink at Daschle only to eke out a 1-point win (Thune ran an impressive campaign, obviously).

The Dakotas have been incredibly loyal to the Democrats at the Congressional level... well, until 2010, at least. Now the only bright spot for you is Heitkamp's seat. I think she'll win by a surprisingly wide margin, though - maybe not by as much as Dorgan or Conrad, but a 15- to 20-point win is definitely possible, especially if the ND GOP nominates a joke candidate. I'd be really shocked if she lost, in all honesty.

Btw: This thread is really hilarious in hindsight. Shows you why the GOP can't take any open seat for granted, especially in a state like ND. So before anyone assumes that this will be the easiest pickup opportunity for the GOP...

Before Republicans start counting chickens, let's at least see how the race shapes up. This things can turn out surprising. If Heidi Heitkamp gets in, she can actually make it a race.

I never quite understood how Conrad and Dorgan would win reelection by such large margins. Maybe it's that its hard now to see so many downballot crossover votes there were back then. I realize the plains states have a relatively recent history of supporting democrats at the congressional level, but that seemed to end after Obama was elected. The only Democrat to win in North Dakota (or any plains state) after 2008 was Heitkamp, who was well-known, and had a weak opponent.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

What does she have that so many Democrats are missing???

A personality.

It's a bit surprising how the GOP doesn't have a strong bench in the upper plains. If they don't give Heitkamp a good challenge, it could be a drag on Republican state legislators running for reelection.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Also, this story is already several days old, but still:

With ‘good woman,’ did Donald Trump just help Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp get reelected?

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I also wonder if this means that Cramer won't run? Maybe Trump has seen internal polling showing Heitkamp up by 20+ points?

We'd probably be hearing reports of Republicans fretting in private if this was a big deal. Maybe there is internal polling showing Heitkamp pulling a Byron Dorgan/Kent Conrad-style landslide.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Cramer's out.

Likely D? I think that might be too optimistic, since internals Campbell have him up, but Cramer seemed like a stronger candidate than Campbell.