ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Cactus Jack]

Now I understand why you think she's heavily favored. She's hard not to like.

If it weren't for polarization, I'd definitely rate this Safe D. But Lean/Likely D seems about right for now. She's probably going to steamroll her opponent anyway, though.  

Why can't Republicans run candidates like Heitkamp everywhere?

I genuinely think that North Dakota has the best pair of senators currently serving.

I've always thought it a little amusing that North Dakota's star senatorial pair started their careers duking it out for the governorship.

At any rate, I agree with the narrative here. Heitkamp is in hostile territory, but everyone likes her and the Republican bench is even worse than Montana's. More to the point, North Dakota isn't a state that boots out incumbents.

[Cactus Jack]

Ye gods, how is it possible that such a Republican state could have such an overwhelmingly terrible Republican bench?

[Cactus Jack]

Democrats would be making a mistake to think anyone outside of the most out-of-touch people imaginable care about Mika Brzezinski.

So would Republicans.

Making fun of the most elite of media elites fires up the Republican base more than defending them fires up the Democrats.

I'm not sure if it would play quite as well in North Dakota as it would in more inherently Trumpist states. He may have won the state by a colossal margin, but I suspect that had more to do with Clinton's unpopularity in the state than it did with North Dakotans fervently agreeing with his positions or antagonism toward the media.

Of course, I can't say for sure. I don't even live in the region, let alone the state.

[Cactus Jack]

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This is a race where the GOP should've been able to go to the North Dakota State Senate, grab the first warm body they can, and say "You're the candidate". Neset seems like a Plan D or E type candidate.

Surely the NDGOP can do better than even that - what about Dalrymple or Stenehjem? Especially the former - I haven't heard his name mentioned at all.

Dalrymple is up in age, and apparently some think he handled the DAPL protests poorly. Stenehjem is probably damaged from his ill-fated governor bid last year (which ended in a shockingly wide primary defeat).

Didn't Burgum outspend him by some ridiculous margin? I might be misremembering, though

That, and I seem to recall Stenehjem being an appallingly boring candidate. Bizarrely enough, I'm pretty sure Burgum was also more moderate.

[Cactus Jack]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

What does she have that so many Democrats are missing???

A personality.

[Cactus Jack]

Heitkamp's approvals have shot up since she started campaigning.

What does she have that so many Democrats are missing???

A personality.

It's a bit surprising how the GOP doesn't have a strong bench in the upper plains. If they don't give Heitkamp a good challenge, it could be a drag on Republican state legislators running for reelection.

I'd argue that the SDGOP has plenty of fine recruits lined up, but the Republican benches in North Dakota and Minnesota are awful. There's a good reason Collin Peterson and Tim Walz didn't go down even in massive Republican waves, and why Heitkamp won in the first place.

To address that last part, I'm not familiar with local Dakota politics, but I could see Heitkamp having appreciable coattails downballot if she ends up with a Strickland-tier opponent.

[Cactus Jack]

Though I wonder if this race ends up being a joke could Heidi pull Bjorkman over the line in the AT race?  

Bjorkman is running for SD-AL, not ND-AL. That being said, if Cramer makes the lethal mistake of running against Heitkamp, his ensuing destruction might make the House race uncomfortably close for his GOP successor. Considering what a disaster the NDGOP is turning out to be, it really wouldn't surprise me.

[Cactus Jack]

Though I wonder if this race ends up being a joke could Heidi pull Bjorkman over the line in the AT race?  

Bjorkman is running for SD-AL, not ND-AL. That being said, if Cramer makes the lethal mistake of running against Heitkamp, his ensuing destruction might make the House race uncomfortably close for his GOP successor. Considering what a disaster the NDGOP is turning out to be, it really wouldn't surprise me.

I think you're neglecting Heitkamp's HYPER COATTAILS. The energy from the ND-SEN is gonna have a ripple effect across the entire upper plains. Calling it rn: SD-AL, MT-AL are Likely D and the next provincial elections in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are in a dead heat between the NDP and Liberals.  

Hey, now, I'm posting this at work. I can't start cackling like a hyena.

[Cactus Jack]

Well, he's at least better than a Some Dude, but Heitkamp still has this. She's probably the best Democratic campaigner in the Senate and the NDGOP is a political punchline.

[Cactus Jack]

Likely R, too polarized these days.

Polarization isn't a one-size-fits-all death sentence. North Dakota has been an unshakable Republican stronghold on the presidential level since the 1980s, but it sure didn't stop them from sending Conrad, Dorgan, and Pomeroy back to Congress in landslide victories for close to two decades.

The fact of the matter is that Heitkamp is popular, an absurdly competent campaigner, and a master of retail politics, running in a state that loves inoffensive moderates like her and (relatively) Hoeven. Couple that with the fact that the NDGOP is so incompetent that the best they have to run against Heitkamp is a state senator who oozes Generic Republican, and you have a race that doesn't even approach likely R.

[Cactus Jack]

Trump apparently encouraging Cramer to jump into the race

Yet again, Trump displays all the long-term political instincts of a carp.

[Cactus Jack]

So the Republican primary here is going to come down to a prick and a handsome cardboard cutout.

Heitkamp must be delighted right now.

[Cactus Jack]

If Cramer runs he’ll have a large lead over Hentkemp, I currently rate this race Likely Republican because I expect Cramer to run and Trump to campaign hard for him, and in this polarized climate it’s hard for me to imagine Democrats holding a senate seat in a state as Republican as North Dakota.

You don't actually know anything about politics at all, do you.

[Cactus Jack]

Rick Berg is out as well

Guess they couldn't recruit a candidate with real teeth and now they're stuck with Campbell.

Maybe not real teeth, but real ads! swag

That's the next US senator from North Dakota.

Isn't it past your bedtime?

[Cactus Jack]

Guys, seriously. Heitkamp is a master of retail politics and has been raising money for this seat for years. It won't be a cakewalk because it's still North Dakota, but she should still be okay.

And from what I understand, Kevin Cramer is a colossal asshole a la Todd Rokita. The NDGOP bench is, quite frankly, utter garbage.

[Cactus Jack]

Can't wait for Cramer's career-ending gaffe!

[Cactus Jack]

He's an Akin in the makin.

[Cactus Jack]

She is coming close to DOA.

This just in: Bagel still knows absolutely nothing or whatsoever about politics. More at 11.

[Cactus Jack]

RIP

hate to be the guy who moves the conversation, but anyone think he'll stop running, and if he doesnt, will he get sympathy votes?

Doubtful on both counts. What happened to his family is terrible and deserved by nobody, but Kevin Cramer is a vicious political rattlesnake who makes it extremely difficult to sympathize with him for very long. Just look at the story above this post.