Sweet Caroline

[Progressive]

After being appointed Senator by Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) to replace Hillary Clinton, Caroline Kennedy became a star in her own right in the Democratic Party. Despite her rise in established political circles, Sen. Kennedy took on issues of criminal justice reform, drug addiction, and economic inequality almost instantly after taking office. But on the horizon, a post-Obama America loomed over the Senator. Who could sustain the gains, and build on the progress? Who could put together a charismatic presidential and vice presidential ticket that would keep the Obama base going and drum up support among progressive and conservative skeptics alike? Who could take on a Republican candidate from the large GOP talent pool? Alternatively, who could square up with a larger than life personality like Donald Trump? Could she?

The story begins...

[Progressive]

APRIL/MAY2015: HILLARY'S OUT

In a message to supporters (and foes), former Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton announced that she would not be seeking the presidential nomination in 2016. Rumors swirled about Secretary Clinton's health and legal troubles in the months before, and her hypothetical polling for a potential run allegedly took a dip after hacked emails revealed a potential private server security breach at the State Department.

Secretary Clinton's absence from the 2016 race is likely to invite a flood of candidates who would have opted out had Secretary Clinton run. Speculation turned to Vice President Biden, who was reeling from the death of his son Beau.

Rumors abound that Secretary and former President Bill Clinton were actively trying to recruit Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) or Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) to enter the race should Vice President Biden not run.

Meanwhile, Sen. Caroline Kennedy (D-NY) had been actively trying to earn Clinton support for a potential bid of her own, but was repeatedly told she would be "drowned out" by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) if she tried to run.

DEMOCRATS RUMORED MULLING A BID:
Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
Sen. Caroline Kennedy (D-NY)
Sec. Julian Castro (D-TX)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA)
CEO of Black Entertainment Television (BET) Debra Lee (D-DC)
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO)
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)
Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH)
Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY)
 

NEXT UP: BIDEN'S DECISION + EARLY POLLING + MORE CANDIDATES ENTER

[Oppo]

I like where this is going.

[Illini Moderate]

Interesting

[Progressive]

SUMMER / FALL 2015: BIDEN WON'T RUN; THE PILE ON BEGINS

Flanked by the support of his wife, Dr. Jill Biden and President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden announced that he would not seek the presidency. With Secretary Clinton and Vice President Biden out of the running, the perceived obligation to carry on President Obama's legacy fell onto the shoulders of lesser-known Democrats.

Elizabeth Warren: Massachusetts' senior senator launched her campaign for the presidency in June 2015, landing top campaign talent on her campaign, including former Clinton adviser Jake Sullivan, who will direct Warren's campaign foreign policy portfolio. Secretary Clinton has given her "blessing" to her aides joining the Warren campaign (among others), for waiting for the Secretary to decide not to run. Warren polls well among Democrats, especially Democratic and independent women, but is running a less aggressive campaign than most thought she would. Her fundraising has not been strong, and her campaign appearances have been largely limited, focused mainly on Iowa and New Hampshire. Some question if Warren will ultimately remain in the race.

Martin O'Malley: The former Maryland governor has spent so much time in Iowa that he could pay Iowa taxes--as he reminds Iowa voters verbatim, in his "dozen-a-day" campaign stops across Iowa. O'Malley has raised little money, but has garnered a number of endorsements from local legislators in Iowa, and his hoping his grassroots campaign will pay off in the February 2017 caucuses.

Julian Castro: The Obama HUD Secretary began his campaign shortly after Vice President Biden's announcement. Saddled with personnel and fundraising issues, Castro opted to end his campaign in September 2015, and withheld his endorsement.

Cory Booker: The energetic New Jersey senator is expected to be a top contender for the Democratic nomination. Booker retained the services of John Pedesta and Anita Dunn, using much of the Obama / (anticipated) Clinton campaign apparatus. Booker, like Warren, has struggled to create a campaign theme, other than Obama continuity, and has come under fire for corporate donations from big pharmaceuticals and banks. The Booker campaign has invested little in New Hampshire, anticipating a Warren win there, and will instead aim for first place finishes in Iowa and South Carolina.

Caroline Kennedy: After being nominated by Gov. Paterson to fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat, Caroline Kennedy quickly grew into her own image as a Democratic rabble-rouser who often found herself a thorn in the side of the Democratic establishment. After her appointment to the Senate, Gov. Paterson announced that he would run for a full term, against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo who was hoping to clear the field of Gov. Paterson. The 2010 primary drew blood. Sen. Kennedy invited her uncle, the ailing Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, to record endorsement messages on behalf of Gov. Paterson. Ted Kennedy even joined Gov. Paterson on the campaign trail in early 2009, just weeks after his niece was appointed to the Senate. In the closest gubernatorial primary in New York history, David Paterson edged Andrew Cuomo 49.44% to 49.33%. Paterson's victory was flanked by black and Hispanic voters as well as young, white, progressive voters. Cuomo earned the support of suburban Democrats and voters in upstate. Going forward, Sen. Caroline Kennedy embraced "uncommon" causes, including bold criminal justice reform, free college tuition, ending ICE deportations, and creating a national single payer health program. Her campaign theme: America's Revolution.

Gov. John Hickenlooper: The affable Colorado governor has gained little traction in the race. The essence of his campaign is clean, competent governance for a race that sorely needs "an adult in the room."

BET CEO Debra Lee: Ms. Lee, a political neophyte, is centering her campaign around entrepreneurship, increased jobs, and safer cities. Interestingly, Ms. Lee polls best among more conservative white Democrats.

With just 6 Democrats in the race, the field was expected to winnow quickly.

Here are the FINAL POLLS nationally, in Iowa, and New Hampshire.

NATIONAL:
Warren           29%
Booker           24%
Kennedy         19%
Lee                   4%
O'Malley           3%
Hickenlooper   2%
Undecided       19%

IOWA:
Booker            25%
Warren            24%
Kennedy          23%
O'Malley          11%
Lee                   6%
Hickenlooper     2%
Undecided         9%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Warren             30%
Booker             18%
Kennedy           16%
Lee                   6%
O'Malley            3%
Hickenlooper      3%
Undecided        25%

NEXT POST: IOWA CAUCUSES 2016 *note, 2016 GOP race will be exactly the same as IRL*

[GoTfan]

Seems like Kennedy and Warren are both fighting for the progressive vote.