Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think 35-40 seats for the dems an a wash in the senate is a fairly accurate prediction for 2018 anyone else

[Shadows]

MN is a total mess & so are many other areas. Atleast the GOP maximizes its seats in deep red states. The Dems can't even maximize the seats in CA, NY, WA !

This isn't really even a "if there is a will, there is a way"-type situation. Voting patterns of various states evolve over time, and if you look back at many Southern states, it took Republicans a lonnggg time to break through in legislative/House races. Democrats in places like Mississippi and Tennessee held most of their respective state's House seats mostly up until 2011, with some brief breaks prior. The reason the GOP looks so efficient at maximizing their gains here is that 8 years of Obama and 2 midterm waves, one being a census year, wiped us out and allowed them to further lock in their gains with better maps.

But there are many seats in CA & NY which Dems have held for years that aren't traditional GOP seats. Dems had lost some CA/NY seats in 2010 & have failed to get it back in 2012 or 2014. Dems have lost 900 odd Leg seats. They didn't lose WI, NC or PA Senate seats because the state was trending blue but GOP were hanging on to their seats !

There are some long term trends involved here - Loss of the WWC, Poor engagement of millennials, low turnout of the base, more people registering independent etc. I fully agree with you on all points but there are other reasons intermingled including the incompetence of the Dem party !

[Nyvin]

The Republicans have 36 seats ranked R+20 or above, while the Democrats have 65 seats ranked D+20 or above.

That, in a generalized sense, is what the Democrat's problem in the House is all about.

[Strudelcutie4427]

The Republicans have 36 seats ranked R+20 or above, while the Democrats have 65 seats ranked D+20 or above.

That, in a generalized sense, is what the Democrat's problem in the House is all about.

Really shows the effects of self packing. Thing is almost every liberal I know doesn't want to live out in the suburbs or small towns and they all want to go to Boston or New York

[Heisenberg]

Thanks Ted! I added numbers to the map.

90% is a party PVI of +10 or higher, 50% is a PVI of 6-9, 30% is 3-5, 20% is 1-2, and green is even.
(DC is D+43, the square isn't big enough to show both digits.)

[Young Conservative]

Interesting how the biggest statewide shift left was Alaska... if Don Young ever retires I think Democrats could make it quite competitive with a decent candidate like Berkowitz.

Iowa was a 4 point shift. Alaska was a three point shift.

[Kamala]

Interesting how the biggest statewide shift left was Alaska... if Don Young ever retires I think Democrats could make it quite competitive with a decent candidate like Berkowitz.

Iowa was a 4 point shift. Alaska was a three point shift.

[hopper]

Interestingly enough most of the R and D trending districts are in the same state:

D trending districts:


AZ(3 trending D districts)

AZ-03
AZ-07
AZ-09

CA(10 Trending D Districts)

CA-17
CA-19
CA-27
CA-32
CA-33
CA-34
CA-38
CA-46
CA-47
CA-51

FL (2 D trending Districts)

FL-26
FL-27

GA(2 trending D districts)

GA-06
GA-07

TX(5 trending D Districts)

TX-02
TX-07
TX-22
TX-29
TX-32

VA(3 trending D districts)

VA-08
VA-10
VA-11

Republicans:

Illinois(2 trending R districts)

IL-12
IL-15

Indiana(3 trending R districts)

IN-04
IN-06
IN-08

Michigan(2 trending R districts)

MI-04
MI-10

Minnesota(2 trending R districts)

MN-07
MN-08

Missouri(2 trending R districts)

MO-03
MO-08

Pennsylvania(3 trending R districts)

PA-05
PA-09
PA-17

Ohio(2 R trending districts)

OH-06
OH-07

Wisconsin(3 trending R districts)

WI-03
WI-07
WI-08

West Virginia(3 trending R districts)

WV-01
WV-02
WV-03

The rest of R trending districts that aren't in the same state: IA-04, KY-05, and ND-AL.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Republicans have 36 seats ranked R+20 or above, while the Democrats have 65 seats ranked D+20 or above.

That, in a generalized sense, is what the Democrat's problem in the House is all about.

Really shows the effects of self packing. Thing is almost every liberal I know doesn't want to live out in the suburbs or small towns and they all want to go to Boston or New York

Ah yes, "self packing."

[Kamala]

The Republicans have 36 seats ranked R+20 or above, while the Democrats have 65 seats ranked D+20 or above.

That, in a generalized sense, is what the Democrat's problem in the House is all about.

Really shows the effects of self packing. Thing is almost every liberal I know doesn't want to live out in the suburbs or small towns and they all want to go to Boston or New York

Ah yes, "self packing."

It's common knowledge that the narrow strip of land between Cleveland and Toledo is a leftist utopia.

[Webnicz]

Interestingly enough most of the R and D trending districts are in the same state:

D trending districts:


AZ(3 trending D districts)

AZ-03
AZ-07
AZ-09

CA(10 Trending D Districts)

CA-17
CA-19
CA-27
CA-32
CA-33
CA-34
CA-38
CA-46
CA-47
CA-51

FL (2 D trending Districts)

FL-26
FL-27

GA(2 trending D districts)

GA-06
GA-07

TX(5 trending D Districts)

TX-02
TX-07
TX-22
TX-29
TX-32

VA(3 trending D districts)

VA-08
VA-10
VA-11

Republicans:

Illinois(2 trending R districts)

IL-12
IL-15

Indiana(3 trending R districts)

IN-04
IN-06
IN-08

Michigan(2 trending R districts)

MI-04
MI-10

Minnesota(2 trending R districts)

MN-07
MN-08

Missouri(2 trending R districts)

MO-03
MO-08

Pennsylvania(3 trending R districts)

PA-05
PA-09
PA-17

Ohio(2 R trending districts)

OH-06
OH-07

Wisconsin(3 trending R districts)

WI-03
WI-07
WI-08

West Virginia(3 trending R districts)

WV-01
WV-02
WV-03

The rest of R trending districts that aren't in the same state: IA-04, KY-05, and ND-AL.

surprised AZ-06 isn't on the list.

[catographer]

Cook PVI 2017 by CD (average of 2012 & 2016 elections)

Cook PVI 2017 by state (average of 2012 & 2016 elections)

[cinyc]

Miles put up a 2016 PVI County map on Decision Desk HQ.

[Miles]

^ Thanks, here's another with Atlas colors:

[Miles]

Also, here's a spreadsheet with my county PVI calculations!

[RI]

I can't help but feel like PVIs based on 2016 may not be overly useful.

[Figueira]

I can't help but feel like PVIs based on 2016 may not be overly useful.

Especially when they also factor in 2012. PVI is a pretty useless measure honestly.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I can't help but feel like PVIs based on 2016 may not be overly useful.

Especially when they also factor in 2012. PVI is a pretty useless measure honestly.

It's useful for gauging an overall composite of the political landscape, but less resourceful when it comes to predicting future elections, due to its incapability of accounting for sudden shifts in the electorate. It measures what's already happened, not what's laying in wait down the road. Hence, the historical trend of the PVI index has demonstrated how Congressional House districts have been increasingly polarized over time and the number of competitive districts have dramatically evaporated over the past two decades, but its indicator of a Republican Congressional PVI advantage is only as predictive as it was when it said the same thing in the 2004 index. Didn't stop the 2006 Democratic Wave. Similarly, the 2008 index didn't reflect the 2010 midterm Republican backlash.

[Klartext89]

Thanks for the maps, I waited for the new PVI a couple of months, very excited to study it!

[Figueira]

I can't help but feel like PVIs based on 2016 may not be overly useful.

Especially when they also factor in 2012. PVI is a pretty useless measure honestly.

It's useful for gauging an overall composite of the political landscape, but less resourceful when it comes to predicting future elections, due to its incapability of accounting for sudden shifts in the electorate. It measures what's already happened, not what's laying in wait down the road. Hence, the historical trend of the PVI index has demonstrated how Congressional House districts have been increasingly polarized over time and the number of competitive districts have dramatically evaporated over the past two decades, but its indicator of a Republican Congressional PVI advantage is only as predictive as it was when it said the same thing in the 2004 index. Didn't stop the 2006 Democratic Wave. Similarly, the 2008 index didn't reflect the 2010 midterm Republican backlash.

But a lot of people say stuff like "It's a D+5 district" as if that tells you everything.

[Bacon King]

The Republicans have 36 seats ranked R+20 or above, while the Democrats have 65 seats ranked D+20 or above.

That, in a generalized sense, is what the Democrat's problem in the House is all about.

your D+20 limit is completely arbitrary, though.

The Republicans have 146 seats ranked R+10 or above, while the Democrats have 122 seats ranked D+10 or above.

The Republicans have 189 seats ranked R+7 or above, while the Democrats have 150 seats ranked D+7 or above.

IMO these breakdowns are much better demonstrations of the Democratic Party's problems in the House. The problem isn't that Democrats self-segregate into urban areas at a greater rate than Republicans self-segregate into rural areas, because if you were to draw fair non-partisan maps nationwide, the number of R+20 seats would increase and the number of D+20 seats would probably decrease.

When you start getting into the districts where the GOP has a PVI advantage somewhere in the teens, you see many districts that would be R+20 or more but they awkwardly stretch and go out of their way to take in juuuust enough Democratic voters to keep the Democratic base too diluted so they can force as many GOP districts as possible

That's the real problem - gerrymandering. all other concerns are secondary. The 2018 House elections are meaningless compared to the extreme importance of the 2018 gubernatorial and state legislative elections . That is how the Congressional majority of the next decade will be determined. We don't even need to make our own gerrymanders - the Democratic party wins when the maps are drawn fairly

[Nyvin]

The Republicans have 36 seats ranked R+20 or above, while the Democrats have 65 seats ranked D+20 or above.

That, in a generalized sense, is what the Democrat's problem in the House is all about.

your D+20 limit is completely arbitrary, though.

The Republicans have 146 seats ranked R+10 or above, while the Democrats have 122 seats ranked D+10 or above.

The Republicans have 189 seats ranked R+7 or above, while the Democrats have 150 seats ranked D+7 or above.

IMO these breakdowns are much better demonstrations of the Democratic Party's problems in the House. The problem isn't that Democrats self-segregate into urban areas at a greater rate than Republicans self-segregate into rural areas, because if you were to draw fair non-partisan maps nationwide, the number of R+20 seats would increase and the number of D+20 seats would probably decrease.

When you start getting into the districts where the GOP has a PVI advantage somewhere in the teens, you see many districts that would be R+20 or more but they awkwardly stretch and go out of their way to take in juuuust enough Democratic voters to keep the Democratic base too diluted so they can force as many GOP districts as possible

That's the real problem - gerrymandering. all other concerns are secondary. The 2018 House elections are meaningless compared to the extreme importance of the 2018 gubernatorial and state legislative elections . That is how the Congressional majority of the next decade will be determined. We don't even need to make our own gerrymanders - the Democratic party wins when the maps are drawn fairly

R+10 is almost exactly what you'd want to have your districts at,  somewhere between R+7 and R+13 probably.   Anything with a PVI above 15 is pretty much just wasted votes.    The Republicans probably designed R+10 districts wherever they could afford to do so, and I'm sure the incumbents approved as well.

[SoLongAtlas]

VA-5 is now R+6. Gain of 1 PVI point over the last decade. Most thought C'ville growth would limit that but it's not going turning D+ anything anytime soon. Mostly due to redistricting but slow growth, mostly rural district.

[Gass3268]

PVI Shift Map:

[jbm4pres]

PVI Shift Map:

Interesting to see VA-7 turning left. Daily Kos says it is now R+5 but Cook has it at R+6. Is it possible for Democrats to give Dave Brat a competitive race? Do Democrats even have a bench here?