Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info

[Mike Thick]

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10304

Lots of info to parse here. One thing that sticks out to me is that Collin Peterson's district is now tied with Tom Emmer's as the most Republican in the state.

[Figueira]

Yay, now someone needs to edit Wikipedia.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Biggest Shifts:
More Republican:
WV-3
IL-15
OH-6
MO-8
IN-8
MI-10
IN-6
ND-AL
MN-7
WI-7

More Democrat:
VA-8
TX-29
AZ-7
CA-46
TX-7 (still a R+7 PVI, though)
FL-27 (flips sides, from R+1 to D+5)
VA-11
GA-6 (still a R+8 PVI, though)
CA-51
FL-25 (still a R+4 PVI, though)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wikipedia has a full PDF, but I still have only seen the CD info, not the state ratings.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wrong Party Reps:

MN-7: Peterson (D)- R+12
FL-26: Curbelo (R)- D+6
MN-1: Walz (D)- R+5
FL-25: Ros-Lehtinen (R)- D+5
CA-21: Valadao (R)- D+5
MN-8: Nolan (D)- R+4
NY-24: Katko (R)- D+3
NJ-5: Gottheimer (D)- R+3
NV-3: Rosen (D)- R+2
NH-1: Shea-Porter (D)- R+2
CO-6: Coffman (R)- D+2
AZ-1: O'Halleran (D)- R+2
IA-1: Blum (R)- D+1 (it's only still D+ because Obama won it by 14 in 2012)
MN-3: Paulsen (R)- D+1
PA-17: Cartwright (D)- R+1
VA-10: Comstock (R)- D+1
NY-18: Maloney (D)- R+1

9 Democrats sit in seats with R+PVIs, while 8 Republicans are in D+ seats.  The 8 even seats are split 4-4 (Republicans Denham, Royce, Knight, and Reichart, and Democrats Kind, DeFazio, Murphy, and Schrader).

[JA]

GA-06, Tom Price's District, saw the (tied) largest net swing against Trump in the country outside of Utah. That'd explain why the Democrat in this special election is performing so well.

[Shadows]

Wrong Party Reps:

MN-7: Peterson (D)- R+12
FL-26: Curbelo (R)- D+6
MN-1: Walz (D)- R+5
FL-25: Ros-Lehtinen (R)- D+5
CA-21: Valadao (R)- D+5
MN-8: Nolan (D)- R+4
NY-24: Katko (R)- D+3
NJ-5: Gottheimer (D)- R+3
NV-3: Rosen (D)- R+2
NH-1: Shea-Porter (D)- R+2
CO-6: Coffman (R)- D+2
AZ-1: O'Halleran (D)- R+2
IA-1: Blum (R)- D+1 (it's only still D+ because Obama won it by 14 in 2012)
MN-3: Paulsen (R)- D+1
PA-17: Cartwright (D)- R+1
VA-10: Comstock (R)- D+1
NY-18: Maloney (D)- R+1

9 Democrats sit in seats with R+PVIs, while 8 Republicans are in D+ seats.  The 8 even seats are split 4-4 (Republicans Denham, Royce, Knight, and Reichart, and Democrats Kind, DeFazio, Murphy, and Schrader).

8 Even Seats -

GOP Held - 3 CA & 1 WA
Dem Held - 1 NY, 2 OR, 1 WI

Dem's Best pick-ups as per PVI (D+3 & more)

FL 26 CURBELO, CARLOS (R) D+6
FL 27 ROS-LEHTINEN, ILEANA (R) D+ 5
CA 21 VALADAO, DAVID (R) D+5
CA 3 Garamendi, John (D) D+ 5
NY 24 KATKO, JOHN (R) D+3
 
5 Seats in CA, 1 in WA, 2 in Florida around Miami-Dade, 1 in NY etc.

There loads of seats to be gained in CA & NY & Dems have not performed well down-ballot in these states as much as they should have !

[Figueira]

I calculated the state PVIs a while back, but I'm not sure if Cook has released them yet.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wrong Party Reps:

MN-7: Peterson (D)- R+12
FL-26: Curbelo (R)- D+6
MN-1: Walz (D)- R+5
FL-25: Ros-Lehtinen (R)- D+5
CA-21: Valadao (R)- D+5
MN-8: Nolan (D)- R+4
NY-24: Katko (R)- D+3
NJ-5: Gottheimer (D)- R+3
NV-3: Rosen (D)- R+2
NH-1: Shea-Porter (D)- R+2
CO-6: Coffman (R)- D+2
AZ-1: O'Halleran (D)- R+2
IA-1: Blum (R)- D+1 (it's only still D+ because Obama won it by 14 in 2012)
MN-3: Paulsen (R)- D+1
PA-17: Cartwright (D)- R+1
VA-10: Comstock (R)- D+1
NY-18: Maloney (D)- R+1

9 Democrats sit in seats with R+PVIs, while 8 Republicans are in D+ seats.  The 8 even seats are split 4-4 (Republicans Denham, Royce, Knight, and Reichart, and Democrats Kind, DeFazio, Murphy, and Schrader).

8 Even Seats -

GOP Held - 3 CA & 1 WA
Dem Held - 1 NY, 2 OR, 1 WI

Dem's Best pick-ups as per PVI (D+3 & more)

FL 26 CURBELO, CARLOS (R) D+6
FL 27 ROS-LEHTINEN, ILEANA (R) D+ 5
CA 21 VALADAO, DAVID (R) D+5
CA 3 Garamendi, John (D) D+ 5
NY 24 KATKO, JOHN (R) D+3
 
5 Seats in CA, 1 in WA, 2 in Florida around Miami-Dade, 1 in NY etc.

There loads of seats to be gained in CA & NY & Dems have not performed well down-ballot in these states as much as they should have !

The other interesting note is that half of Minnesota is represented by the wrong party!

[Shadows]

Wrong Party Reps:

MN-7: Peterson (D)- R+12
FL-26: Curbelo (R)- D+6
MN-1: Walz (D)- R+5
FL-25: Ros-Lehtinen (R)- D+5
CA-21: Valadao (R)- D+5
MN-8: Nolan (D)- R+4
NY-24: Katko (R)- D+3
NJ-5: Gottheimer (D)- R+3
NV-3: Rosen (D)- R+2
NH-1: Shea-Porter (D)- R+2
CO-6: Coffman (R)- D+2
AZ-1: O'Halleran (D)- R+2
IA-1: Blum (R)- D+1 (it's only still D+ because Obama won it by 14 in 2012)
MN-3: Paulsen (R)- D+1
PA-17: Cartwright (D)- R+1
VA-10: Comstock (R)- D+1
NY-18: Maloney (D)- R+1

9 Democrats sit in seats with R+PVIs, while 8 Republicans are in D+ seats.  The 8 even seats are split 4-4 (Republicans Denham, Royce, Knight, and Reichart, and Democrats Kind, DeFazio, Murphy, and Schrader).

8 Even Seats -

GOP Held - 3 CA & 1 WA
Dem Held - 1 NY, 2 OR, 1 WI

Dem's Best pick-ups as per PVI (D+3 & more)

FL 26 CURBELO, CARLOS (R) D+6
FL 27 ROS-LEHTINEN, ILEANA (R) D+ 5
CA 21 VALADAO, DAVID (R) D+5
CA 3 Garamendi, John (D) D+ 5
NY 24 KATKO, JOHN (R) D+3
 
5 Seats in CA, 1 in WA, 2 in Florida around Miami-Dade, 1 in NY etc.

There loads of seats to be gained in CA & NY & Dems have not performed well down-ballot in these states as much as they should have !

The other interesting note is that half of Minnesota is represented by the wrong party!

MN is a total mess & so are many other areas. Atleast the GOP maximizes its seats in deep red states. The Dems can't even maximize the seats in CA, NY, WA !

There is no logic why the Dems can't make the House competitive in 2018 if Trump's approval stays in the mid 30's but atleast the GOP is a capable party & will likely retain !

[publicunofficial]

From 2012-2016 there was only a single seat Republicans held in Texas with a PVI less than R+10 (TX-23). Now there are six of them:

TX-06 (Barton) R+9
TX-10 (McCaul) R+9
TX-24 (Marchant) R+9
TX-07 (Culberson) R+7
TX-32 (Sessions) R+5
TX-23 (Hurd) R+1


EDIT: Another notable statistic:

Of the top 22 districts with the biggest R trend, Democrats hold one of them (MN-07). Of the top 22 districts with the biggest D trend, Republicans hold seven (FL-25, FL-27, GA-06, GA-07, TX-02, TX-07, TX-22).

[Heisenberg]

Dem's Best pick-ups as per PVI (D+3 & more)

FL 26 CURBELO, CARLOS (R) D+6
FL 27 ROS-LEHTINEN, ILEANA (R) D+ 5
CA 21 VALADAO, DAVID (R) D+5
CA 3 Garamendi, John (D) D+ 5
NY 24 KATKO, JOHN (R) D+3

This is a mistake, right?

[Miles]

I calculated the state PVIs a while back, but I'm not sure if Cook has released them yet.

Excuse the normal color scheme:

[Figueira]

I calculated the state PVIs a while back, but I'm not sure if Cook has released them yet.

Excuse the normal color scheme:

Thanks. I had NY as D+11, but I trust Cook got this one right.

[Kamala]

Interesting how the biggest statewide shift left was Alaska... if Don Young ever retires I think Democrats could make it quite competitive with a decent candidate like Berkowitz.

[Figueira]

Biggest Shifts:
More Republican:
WV-3
IL-15
OH-6
MO-8
IN-8
MI-10
IN-6
ND-AL
MN-7
WI-7

More Democrat:
VA-8
TX-29
AZ-7
CA-46
TX-7 (still a R+7 PVI, though)
FL-27 (flips sides, from R+1 to D+5)
VA-11
GA-6 (still a R+8 PVI, though)
CA-51
FL-25 (still a R+4 PVI, though)

Interesting that the most R-moving districts were R districts that got even more R.

It's important to remember that these shifts really reflect 2008-2016 shifts, not 2012-2016.

[Miles]

Thanks. I had NY as D+11, but I trust Cook got this one right.

I did those myself. NY was a tick over D+11.5, so I rounded up.

[Virginiá]

MN is a total mess & so are many other areas. Atleast the GOP maximizes its seats in deep red states. The Dems can't even maximize the seats in CA, NY, WA !

This isn't really even a "if there is a will, there is a way"-type situation. Voting patterns of various states evolve over time, and if you look back at many Southern states, it took Republicans a lonnggg time to break through in legislative/House races. Democrats in places like Mississippi and Tennessee held most of their respective state's House seats mostly up until 2011, with some brief breaks prior. The reason the GOP looks so efficient at maximizing their gains here is that 8 years of Obama and 2 midterm waves, one being a census year, wiped us out and allowed them to further lock in their gains with better maps.

[Suburbia]

Yay, now someone needs to edit Wikipedia.

[Suburbia]

Rodney Frelinghuysen's district in NJ-11 is now R+3, less Republican than before. I wonder why? It still contains ancestrally Republican Morris County.

[Figueira]

I was surprised at Utah, but then I remembered 2012. Same with Alaska.

The Utah PVI will presumably shift further to the left in 2020 when 2012 is out of the equation and Trump has another underwhelming (by pre-2016 standards) performance there.

[Smash255]

Rodney Frelinghuysen's district in NJ-11 is now R+3, less Republican than before. I wonder why? It still contains ancestrally Republican Morris County.

Trump only won the district by 0.9%.   Romney won it by 5.8%.  Compared to the national average trended Dem by about 6.7%. 

Trump struggled with traditionally Republican, well educated middle to upper middle class white suburbanites, which is what a good chunk of this district is.

[progressive85]

Only a complete nerd like myself would get excited seeing that thread title.

[Dr. Arch]

We need a map, asap!

[Mike Thick]

We need a map, asap!

This is a map of PVI.

90% is a party PVI of +10 or higher, 50% is a PVI of 6-9, 30% is 3-5, and green is two or less either way. This might not have been the best way to slice up the states, but it's the best I could do in five minutes

Republican or Republican-leaning: 230
Democratic or Democratic-leaning: 191
Close-ass states: 117

This is a map of the statewide PVI shifts.

The lightest color (VA, NM, etc) is a shift of one, while the darkest (ND) is a shift of seven.