RussiaGate is officially killed. Or is it not?

[Person Man]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

He hasn't performed any 180 and neither did he collude with the Russians over the election. This bombing of an evacuated airbase followed by 'rising tensions' is all kayfabe designed to set the stage for a peace deal over Syria.

So it could be some sort of hoodwinking collusion-but-not-collusion to united the Neocons and altRight to achieve altRight policy?

[EnglishPete]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

He hasn't performed any 180 and neither did he collude with the Russians over the election. This bombing of an evacuated airbase followed by 'rising tensions' is all kayfabe designed to set the stage for a peace deal over Syria.

So it could be some sort of hoodwinking collusion-but-not-collusion to united the Neocons and altRight to achieve altRight policy?

That's one way of putting it. Watching the way that neo-cons and establishment Dems in the media go from spending nearly two years attacking Trump to go "Yay go President" just because he sent some big noisy rockets at an evacuated air base is quite a sight to behold. These people really are easily impressed.

[Person Man]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

He hasn't performed any 180 and neither did he collude with the Russians over the election. This bombing of an evacuated airbase followed by 'rising tensions' is all kayfabe designed to set the stage for a peace deal over Syria.

So it could be some sort of hoodwinking collusion-but-not-collusion to united the Neocons and altRight to achieve altRight policy?

That's one way of putting it. Watching the way that neo-cons and establishment Dems in the media go from spending nearly two years attacking Trump to go "Yay go President" just because he sent some big noisy rockets at an evacuated air base is quite a sight to behold. These people really are easily impressed.

Hey, at least you accept the truth and stand by it. Neocons will probably consider this similar to Reagan's response to Qadaffi in the 80s when in fact it is just a ruse to get hawks to believe that they have control and their policies work when they are being cuckholded like the rest of us.

[Silent Hunter]

This bombing of an evacuated airbase followed by 'rising tensions' is all kayfabe designed to set the stage for a peace deal over Syria.

Or it's all kayfabe to cover the fact that he is a Russian asset...

[The_Doctor]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

It's not quite a 180. Trump alerted the Russians before he executed the bombing strikes. While Russia is indeed for the Assad government, Trump is veritably better for the Russians than Hillary was. Electing him was definitely in Russia's interests. Having Wikileaks release information from Putin's intelligence agencies was in Trump's interests. I am pretty sure both sides thought they were benefiting from an indirect mutual collusion. That's pretty clear from the open dialogue and the weakening of the hardline against Ukraine in the GOP foreign policy.  So we know that there was indirectly collusion. What we don't know if there was an explicit quid pro quo (and even then so, it's clear both sides benefited from working together via Wikileaks).

In the grand scheme of things, the Syrian action is a limited one, and a highly localized one. They are initiating air strikes from that same bombed air space, because the Russians alerted the Syrian government about the impending American strikes, thus allowing the equipment to be moved, as I understand it. Tillerson has made noises about removing Assad but I'm not sure how 100% the Administration is behind him in following up on that comment.

Ultimately just because Trump is President does not mean that there is 100% agreement between U.S. foreign policy and Russia's foreign policy. Russia backed Trump because they believed Trump would give them a better deal - not that he would 100% act in their interests. As intelligence assets have told the Senate, Trump was boosted both in the GOP primaries and the General, in the assumption that he would cut a better deal for Russia than Rubio or Clinton. A localized strike against Syria's Assad government does not mean that Trump is somehow not a puppet or did not engage in collusion with Russia.

The sanctions haven't been lifted because of the hue and cry around the elections. Trump is unable to lift said sanctions right now. We'll see if he uses Syria as a pretext to lift them, which would definitely be suspicious. Right now, given how closely he's tied to Russia in the public's eyes, he's not really able to change American foreign policy on Russia. Which is a good thing (and I suspect the hawks in the Administration, like Pence and Matthis are anti-Russia, to a considerable degree).  

I am still highly skeptical the United States will be a major part of any Syrian peace treaty deal against Assad, because that would require the United States to engage in sustained military and diplomatic work. That's simply not something Trump can afford to do with his isolationist coalition. Remember much of the alt-right is highly favorable to Putin and deeply wary of interventionist strategies, so we'll see if push comes to shove, who they side with.

But the Administration could surprise me. But for now, I assume it's a local strike and a lot of noise against Assad but not really a sustained campaign to remove him from power or to allow a true democratic Syria to emerge. And I assume Trump still wishes to work with Putin more than he wants to antagonize Putin.

[moderatevoter]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

I never denied that. It is totally possible that there was collusion against a mutual opponent (Hillary) without Trump being a purely Manchurian candidate/president.

[Silent Hunter]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

I never denied that. It is totally possible that there was collusion against a mutual opponent (Hillary) without Trump being a purely Manchurian candidate/president.

Sorry, I wasn't saying you were denying it. That should have been clearer.

Yes, that makes sense. Trump isn't mind-controlled.

[Person Man]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

I never denied that. It is totally possible that there was collusion against a mutual opponent (Hillary) without Trump being a purely Manchurian candidate/president.

Sorry, I wasn't saying you were denying it. That should have been clearer.

Yes, that makes sense. Trump isn't mind-controlled.

But are Trump and Putin in cahoots because he thinks Trump is easier to control or does he see Trump as a partner in some vast global altRight conspiracy?

[EnglishPete]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

It's not quite a 180. Trump alerted the Russians before he executed the bombing strikes. While Russia is indeed for the Assad government, Trump is veritably better for the Russians than Hillary was. Electing him was definitely in Russia's interests. Having Wikileaks release information from Putin's intelligence agencies was in Trump's interests. I am pretty sure both sides thought they were benefiting from an indirect mutual collusion. That's pretty clear from the open dialogue and the weakening of the hardline against Ukraine in the GOP foreign policy.  So we know that there was indirectly collusion. What we don't know if there was an explicit quid pro quo (and even then so, it's clear both sides benefited from working together via Wikileaks).

There's no evidence that Russia was behind the leaks other than simply taking the word of the DNC and their hirelings Crowstrike as gospel truth.

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Assad is on his way out, although we might see a further planned 'escalation' before we get to a peace agreement.

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Intelligence Assets who didn't present any evidence for their claim. They said they trusted what Crowdstrike said and they engaged in speculation about what might or might not be Putin's motives.

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Sanctions haven't been lifted because the US hasn't yet got a deal with Russia on lifting them.

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What do you think would be the sticking points on such a deal?

Both agree on defeating Isis
Both want an end to the fighting, presumably involving some kind of balkanisation of Syria along roughly ceasefire lines
US wants Assad out of power, that's doable for Russia
Russia wants to keep its very expensive Naval base, that's doable for the US
Both a deal on the oil pipeline they could do a deal on that.

I'm not seeing what you think is the big sticking point for a deal

[moderatevoter]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

And everyone is assuming that Putin actually wanted Trump to win and worked with him because he likes him. It could have just been that Putin thought Trump would be easier to maneuver against than Clinton. And if that is the case, his investment is already paying off.

I don't think that's entirely clear. I recently read an article detailing how the Russians are having serious 'buyer's remorse.' Specifically, Russia has historically been able to 'punch above their weight' through paranoia and unpredictability about Putin's next move. Now, however, most people are more concerned about Trump's unpredictability and instability, which has blunted Russia's own use of unpredictability... but has also meant that the Russians are unable to anticipate Trump's own actions.

[Person Man]

It might quell some of the more outlandish discussion about Trump as a Manchurian president, but this doesn't resolve some of the other questions re: collusion.

Trump still could have colluded with the Russians previously before performing this major 180.

And everyone is assuming that Putin actually wanted Trump to win and worked with him because he likes him. It could have just been that Putin thought Trump would be easier to maneuver against than Clinton. And if that is the case, his investment is already paying off.

I don't think that's entirely clear. I recently read an article detailing how the Russians are having serious 'buyer's remorse.' Specifically, Russia has historically been able to 'punch above their weight' through paranoia and unpredictability about Putin's next move. Now, however, most people are more concerned about Trump's unpredictability and instability, which has blunted Russia's own use of unpredictability... but has also meant that the Russians are unable to anticipate Trump's own actions.

It could be both, you know. People should be careful for what they wish for.