In hindsight: Michigan Democratic primary

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Michigan was forbidden to hold its primary before Super Tuesday, which it nevertheless did, thus being stripped of all delegates by the DNC.
Obama, therefore, didn't have his name put on the ballot and hence didn't campaign there.
Hillary, however, was electable and visited that state and hence won it by 15%

The results were:
Hillary Clinton 54.61%
Uncommited 39.61%
Dennis Kucinich 3.61%


Now that we all know that Clinton was surprisingly upset twice in that state, who do you think would have won Michigan in 2008 if the primary had been carried out in a normal way (on the same day)?

[This is Eharding, guys]

Obama. Hillary would have won most of the counties, though, as in Missouri. Obama would have run up the margins in pretty much all the Black-majority and well-educated areas. Nate Silver tried an analysis of this back in the day and came up with a four point Obama victory.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/michigan-what-would-have-happened/

[HAnnA MArin County]

The Hillary of 2008 was very different from the Hillary of 2016. Working class white voters were the core of her base. Obama would have ran up the margins among blacks in Detroit and Flint as well as Washtenaw County with the college kiddies due to the presence of Ann Arbor, and FWIW then-Governor Jennifer Granholm had endorsed Hillary.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Hillary of 2008 was very different from the Hillary of 2016. Working class white voters were the core of her base. Obama would have ran up the margins among blacks in Detroit and Flint as well as Washtenaw County with the college kiddies due to the presence of Ann Arbor, and FWIW then-Governor Jennifer Granholm had endorsed Hillary.

It is very odd to think now, but yea Hillary in 08 was the lunch pail blue collar candidate.  She beat Obama in  IN, PA, KY, WV, and OH.