VA-Q: Perriello, Gillespie lead primaries, Dems lead GE

[RogueBeaver]

Perriello up 25/20, Gillespie at 33 against both Dems while leading widely in the primary.

[MT Treasurer]

46% Perriello (D)
33% Gillespie (R)

44% Northam (D)
33% Gillespie (R)

[heatcharger]

Not good! Still a huge amount of undecideds, but Perriello has all the momentum. He's the frontrunner now.

[Gass3268]

Remember when people said this was a toss up, lol!

Likely D

[MT Treasurer]

Remember when people said this was a toss up, lol!

Likely D

Republicans were never going to win this race, barring an absolute collapse of the Democratic candidate. I guess I shouldn't have moved it back to Lean D, although this poll looks too D-friendly.

[Maxwell]

look at those numbers on unstoppable electoral juggernaut and moderate  nice guy ff Ed Gillespie

I don't think a Corey Stewart upset is out of the question.

[Maxwell]

also please note FLYING TERRY MCAULIFFE at a net +20% approval rating. Sounds like presidential contender material to me

(joking of course)

[The Other Castro]

The end result for the general election will probably be much closer than this, but good on Perriello for taking the lead in the primary.

[Gass3268]

The end result for the general election will probably be much closer than this, but good on Perriello for taking the lead in the primary.

Agreed, Republicans close hard in this state, but it's essentially impossible for Republicans win this state with Fairfax County going at least 60% Democratic.

[mencken]

Remember when people said this was a toss up, lol!

Likely D

Yeah, polls have never overestimated Democratic support in Virginia before.

[heatcharger]

The end result for the general election will probably be much closer than this, but good on Perriello for taking the lead in the primary.

Agreed, Republicans close hard in this state, but it's essentially impossible for Republicans win this state with Fairfax County going at least 60% Democratic.

Yeah, undecideds will still probably break towards Republicans as usual. However, it's a mistake to think Gillespie will replicate his 2014 performance in NOVA. That race was an anomaly in my opinion, and the political climate is much different now.

The question now is whether the Democrat will have strong enough coattails to significantly narrow the Republican majority in the State House.

Remember when people said this was a toss up, lol!

Likely D

Yeah, polls have never overestimated Democratic support in Virginia before.

Lol:

RCP Averages: McAullife 46.3% Warner 48.5%
Final Results: McAullife 48.0% Warner 49.2%

Hardly looks like overestimating Democratic support to me. Undecideds broke towards Republicans like they always do.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't believe this poll reflects the actual state of play, but with Gillespie well under 40 and considering that Stewart's confederate support is making it more and more clear that if we somehow get a GE without Gillespie, it will be Safe D, I feel the following rating change of the overall race is merited, and will update my google doc to reflect this:

VA-GOV: Toss-Up ---> Lean D

[Virginiá]

Kind of interesting - Both Northam and Perriello pull in 37-38% of white voters, whereas Gillespie only gets 41-42%, far short of the usual GOP margins in VA. The rest are DK/NA/Wouldn't vote. I'd venture a guess that the margin will narrow quite a bit since so many normally Republican white voters seem to be abstaining for now.

I think it's definitely possible for a Democrat to win by a margin more comfortable than the past few (winning) elections in VA, but it would most definitely require winning more white voters, and right now it seems to be holding at their usual levels.

[krazen1211]

Junk poll! Toss it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm amazed at Terry McAuliffe's strong showing with Virginia's voters.  I really didn't think he'd wear this well.  That's got to help any Democrat running.

[mencken]

The end result for the general election will probably be much closer than this, but good on Perriello for taking the lead in the primary.

Agreed, Republicans close hard in this state, but it's essentially impossible for Republicans win this state with Fairfax County going at least 60% Democratic.

Yeah, undecideds will still probably break towards Republicans as usual. However, it's a mistake to think Gillespie will replicate his 2014 performance in NOVA. That race was an anomaly in my opinion, and the political climate is much different now.

The question now is whether the Democrat will have strong enough coattails to significantly narrow the Republican majority in the State House.

Remember when people said this was a toss up, lol!

Likely D

Yeah, polls have never overestimated Democratic support in Virginia before.

Lol:

RCP Averages: McAullife 46.3% Warner 48.5%
Final Results: McAullife 48.0% Warner 49.2%

Hardly looks like overestimating Democratic support to me. Undecideds broke towards Republicans like they always do.

So this is actually good news for Republicans since the Democrats are at 44-46%?

[heatcharger]

So this is actually good news for Republicans since the Democrats are at 44-46%?

This is a poll done 7 months before an election with the two Democratic candidates having ~30% name ID. Trash-tier trolling I must say.