ME: Independents Gaining Traction

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Susan Collins is one of those figures who's a lot younger than I would have thought considering how long it feels like she's been around. Panzergirl and Poison Dwarf over in France are other examples of this.

[BuckeyeNut]

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

[Maxwell]

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Maybe not if she gets a challenge in the primary

[MAINEiac4434]

MAINEiac (nice name, btw) - If Collins doesn't run, which Republican do you think has the best chance to win a gubernatorial race?

Most people here think that this race is a guaranteed pickup for Democrats, but I think Republicans can win if they play their cards right. But it will be a tough race for sure.

If Collins doesn't run and Poliquin does, he'd be the favorite. But if neither run, the race will be wide open like in 2010. Mike Thibodeau, the Senate President, has said he wouldn't run but I don't really believe him. He's fairly prominent and has been known to take on LePage occasionally. Rick Bennett, the chairman of the party and first GOP electoral college member since 1988 has been on a media blitz (as much as one can in Maine) recently. Mary Mayhew, the DHHS commish, could be a favorite as she's been a bit of an anti-welfare and anti-Obamacare crusader.

If neither Poliquin nor Collins run, I will honestly have no idea who wins the primaries. I'd reasons guess the candidate that can best tap into the LePage wing of the party would be the favorite.

And believe you me, this race is by no means safe for the Ds even in a Trump midterm, especially now that we have an ex-D independent in the race. If the Dem nominee comes from Portland that may make them toxic to the rest of the state (Justin Alfond, ex-Senate President, is a Portlander). If they fail to appease the prominent and vocal Bernie contingent they'll be hamstrung. Apparently Troy Jackson, Bernie's only Maine superdelegate and a logger from the north, is uninterested. If he ran, he'd have my support even as a Clinton supporter in the primary.

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Absolutely, though she's endorsed him both times he'd run for governor.

[BuckeyeNut]

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Absolutely, though she's endorsed him both times he'd run for governor.

Wait, really? Not only is LePage a bigger ass than I realized, this just goes to show Collins' true colors.

As for Troy Jackson, it's probably wise he sits out a gubernatorial run if he were to go up against Collins. Maybe he can run for the Second District again? He seems like a real contended with a future.

[MAINEiac4434]

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Absolutely, though she's endorsed him both times he'd run for governor.

Wait, really? Not only is LePage a bigger ass than I realized, this just goes to show Collins' true colors.

As for Troy Jackson, it's probably wise he sits out a gubernatorial run if he were to go up against Collins. Maybe he can run for the Second District again? He seems like a real contended with a future.

Well she stayed neutral during the 2010 primary but after he won she endorsed him. And before 2014 as wel. Olympia did too, to her eternal discredit.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Absolutely, though she's endorsed him both times he'd run for governor.

Wait, really? Not only is LePage a bigger ass than I realized, this just goes to show Collins' true colors.

As for Troy Jackson, it's probably wise he sits out a gubernatorial run if he were to go up against Collins. Maybe he can run for the Second District again? He seems like a real contended with a future.

Jackson should definitely run in ME-2, I think he'd be favored against Poliquin even in a neutral year tbh. 

[MAINEiac4434]

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Absolutely, though she's endorsed him both times he'd run for governor.

Wait, really? Not only is LePage a bigger ass than I realized, this just goes to show Collins' true colors.

As for Troy Jackson, it's probably wise he sits out a gubernatorial run if he were to go up against Collins. Maybe he can run for the Second District again? He seems like a real contended with a future.

Jackson should definitely run in ME-2, I think he'd be favored against Poliquin even in a neutral year tbh. 

Emily Cain is definitely too "Southern Maine" for the second district. Diehard Clinton supporter, no links to unions, very well educated. It makes her seem aloof.

[politicallefty]

LePage is saying he doesn't know if he would endorse Collins is she does run -- almost definitely to her benefit.

Maybe not if she gets a challenge in the primary

She'd very likely win a general election as an independent or does Maine have some form of "sore loser" law?

[RINO Tom]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

[Libertarian in Name Only]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

[TheSaint250]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

Would Maine's 2nd be pretty secure without Poliquin?  If so, then you are very right.

[Heisenberg]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

Would Maine's 2nd be pretty secure without Poliquin?  If so, then you are very right.

I like Poliquin and would rather have him in the House seat, and then primary Collins if she stays in the Senate and runs for reelection.

[Figueira]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

Would Maine's 2nd be pretty secure without Poliquin?  If so, then you are very right.

Not "secure," but I think Republicans would at least start out as favored.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

Would Maine's 2nd be pretty secure without Poliquin?  If so, then you are very right.

It could flip back to the Democrats in a wave election. Emily Cain was within 10 points of Poliquin, and ran better than Hillary.

ME-02 used to be more safe than ME-01 because of the union vote. It actually flipped from GOP to Dem in 1994 (when Snowe retired to run for senate). John Baldacci and Mike Michaud routinely won with huge margins. It makes Poliquin's margins over Cain (which are healthy) seem quaint.

[smoltchanov]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

Would Maine's 2nd be pretty secure without Poliquin?  If so, then you are very right.

I like Poliquin and would rather have him in the House seat, and then primary Collins if she stays in the Senate and runs for reelection.

Primary Collins? Good luck with that... Do you REALLY think he has suicidal inclinations?

[smoltchanov]

I mean, someone like Poliquin would be FAR better than Collins, but it would be a gamble obviously. I'm not sure whether he could win in 2020, I could see it being a ND-SEN 2012 redux or something like that if the presidential race is close. But for now, it's probably the best if Collins stays until 2026 (at which point I suspect the GOP will be able to hold the seat with some other Republican candidate surprisingly easily, especially if a Democrat wins in 2024, something which I think is basically guaranteed to happen).

IMHO - Collins is FAR better then Poliquin, Slightly conservative for my personal tastes (i would prefer someone in Stanley Tupper mold), but - still very decent, and much better then conservative Poliquin..

[Free Bird]

If anybody thinks No Collins = Safe Dem in either scenario, then they simply don't understand Maine politics.  

[Shadows]

If anybody thinks No Collins = Safe Dem in either scenario, then they simply don't understand Maine politics.  

Of course it wouldn't be Safe D, but Safe R is still better than Tossup.

In 2020 in a huge backlash against Trump when Dems take back the White House, every toss-up to even Lean R Senate seats should go blue. Maine would be Lean D & Dems should win a lean D in a Presidential year.

Besides Collins is consistently the 2nd most popular senator, she makes the seat Safe R

[windjammer]

I would be surprised if she runs to be honest.

[RINO Tom]

I'd much rather have Poliquin run and keep Collins in the Senate.

Would Maine's 2nd be pretty secure without Poliquin?  If so, then you are very right.

I like Poliquin and would rather have him in the House seat, and then primary Collins if she stays in the Senate and runs for reelection.

1) Primarying Collins would be really, really dumb.  She's a New England Republican, please don't subject her to your own purity tests.

2) I want to keep her in the Senate because she is both a good Senator and a provider of some BADLY needed ideological diversity within our caucus on social issues.

[Figueira]

If anybody thinks No Collins = Safe Dem in either scenario, then they simply don't understand Maine politics.  

Good thing no one here is saying that, then.

[GoldenMainer]

Poliquin is overrated and I doubt he'd be able to win statewide. He's not even a good fit for the second district. It's more blue collar and he's the typical rich snake oil salesman professional politician who's run for office after office. He's lucky Democrats are incompetent and can't put forward a candidate who's appealing to the district. The last time he ran for governor, he placed sixth out of seven candidates in the Republican primary. Then he lost the Republican primary in 2012 to challenge Angus King. It doesn't seem like his own party even likes him.

As for Collins, I'd love to see her run for governor so we can get someone better in the Senate. I've noticed a lot of people are upset with her for not stopping DeVos from coming out of committee.

[MAINEiac4434]

Poliquin is overrated and I doubt he'd be able to win statewide. He's not even a good fit for the second district. It's more blue collar and he's the typical rich snake oil salesman professional politician who's run for office after office. He's lucky Democrats are incompetent and can't put forward a candidate who's appealing to the district. The last time he ran for governor, he placed sixth out of seven candidates in the Republican primary. Then he lost the Republican primary in 2012 to challenge Angus King. It doesn't seem like his own party even likes him.

As for Collins, I'd love to see her run for governor so we can get someone better in the Senate. I've noticed a lot of people are upset with her for not stopping DeVos from coming out of committee.

This is exactly why I'm pissed off at her, and many Democrats who were previously neutral or supportive of her are pissed off at her (not that I ever supported her but I digress).

She could've ended DeVos right there. She didn't.

[MAINEiac4434]

Adam Cote announces for the Dems.

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/04/19/veteran-attorney-adam-cote-files-to-run-for-governor-as-democrat/

Veteran who lost to Chellie Pingree in the 2008 ME-01 primary. He hasn't run for anything since. Apparently is a bit of a moderate.

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Curiously doesn't mention Trump or LePage.