The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

Republicans won't rest until they kill off everyone who isn't dirty wealthy.

well, the 8 bn are basically "nothing" but even if the would double that sum again, it would be a subsidy without any incentive to buy insurance, since risk-corridor "victims" are helped, which means: you shouldn't buy insurance anyway  .....bizarre law.

[The_Doctor]

Maybe you should change the name of the thread? :-D

There's still 20 votes against it. It may or may not pass the House but the Senate will almost certainly kill it.

Out of curiosity do you grasp what the ACA and the repeal law does and do you understand the insurance markets in America? Somehow I think your nuance here is severely lacking and is reducible to “BAD DEMS.”

EDIT: Here, do your homework. Look up reconciliation. I'm fairly sure you have never ever grasped the concept of reconciliation before in a Congressional bill, let alone heard of it before.

[The Other Castro]

They're definitely closer to passing in the House this time, but it could be very close.

[Matty]

Does anyone have an estimated whip count.

There are now 20 votes for No from the GOP, the absolute max is 22.

They either need to flip a few more no's or run the table on the undecided votes.

[The_Doctor]

Does anyone have an estimated whip count.

There are now 20 votes for No from the GOP, the absolute max is 22.

They either need to flip a few more no's or run the table on the undecided votes.

I count 18 hard no's, with Upton and Long back on the yes camp (what did I tell you? Long was doing this for political reasons. I was right to be cynical). But others have 20.

They still need to run the table to win this.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Does anyone have an estimated whip count.

i recommend you to follow matt fuller like everybody else.

https://twitter.com/mepfuller?lang=de

[GlobeSoc]

As long as it's stuck in the house, it won't hurt the GOP that much. If it gets to the senate, it will be painful for the GOP. If it passes the senate, it will stab the pubs in the back. If Trump signs it, it will shoot the republicans in the head.

[Matty]

Does anyone have an estimated whip count.

i recommend you to follow matt fuller like everybody else.

https://twitter.com/mepfuller?lang=de

Thank you, AA!

[GlobeSoc]

As long as it's stuck in the house, it won't hurt the GOP that much. If it gets to the senate, it will be painful for the GOP. If it passes the senate, it will stab the pubs in the back. If Trump signs it, it will shoot the republicans in the head.

Don't be naive....the GOP was rewarded in states that expanded Medicaid....just look at Kentucky

Trump will say it's great and his cult will believe it's fine even as they rack up medical bills

The GOP has the presidency, they'll take the hit.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i follow the philosophy of manchin:

the people don't know why they got coverage but they will know who took it away.

[The Other Castro]

I think the tide may have shifted in the House, and opposition has softened. Right now, I think this may actually pass the House.

[Matty]

I think the tide may have shifted in the House, and opposition has softened. Right now, I think this may actually pass the House.

meh, 2 flips isn't important. They need 5 or 6 more flips to barely get it through.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I think the tide may have shifted in the House, and opposition has softened. Right now, I think this may actually pass the House.

has nothing to do with "tides", moderates are softer than hardcores mostly anyway and the GOP is mostly throwing money at the problem, until they somehow get exactly the number of votes they need.

not going anywhere anyway but will be costly....

[The Other Castro]

I think the tide may have shifted in the House, and opposition has softened. Right now, I think this may actually pass the House.

has nothing to do with "tides", moderates are softer than hardcores mostly anyway and the GOP is mostly throwing money at the problem, until they somehow get exactly the number of votes they need.

not going anywhere anyway but will be costly....

Oh yeah by no means am I worried about this bill eventually becoming law, just that its death date may be coming later rather than sooner.

[Brittain33]

This feels like watching the Trump campaign in 2016. It's very entertaining to watch it drag on and destroy the party but every day longer it lives brings it closer to the cataclysm of actual passage.

[ApatheticAustrian]

This feels like watching the Trump campaign in 2016. It's very entertaining to watch it drag on and destroy the party but every day longer it lives brings it closer to the cataclysm of actual passage.

look at it like that:

the longer they waste with this time-bomb-bill, the less damaga they can do otherwise.

[The_Doctor]

18 no per Fuller. 8 Lean no, 10 undecided, 18 lean yes. 202 yesses, so far if you factor in the "lean yesses."

Ignoring everyone who's already a no except Upton and Long and focusing on the lean no and undecided voters --

To summarize, of Fuller's list, I expect Amash (Michigan), Faso, Polinquin, Roskam, Stefanik, Yoder, and Young to vote yes. Amash sounded like he wanted to vote yes. Faso, Stefanik, Polinquin, Webster (FL) and Yoder all come from Trumpkin districts and will want to stand with the President and GOP Leadership. Stefanik, Polinquin, and Faso, in particular, come from districts that went for Trump more than they went for Romney. Roskam is a former House Majority Deputy Whip, and will want to stay loyal to leadership.

Now to the folks I think will vote no. Curbelo (R-FL) is a no, most likely, based on his tweets and he's from a swing district. Issa is also a no, I believe, because he won by just 1,600 votes and he comes from a district that broke heavily for Clinton. Valadao is in the same boat but doing better, he won 57-43%  but needed heavy crossover from the Clinton/Obama voters to re-elect him (and his district is near LA). So, of the 18 No's right now, that brings us to 21. Steve Knight won 53-46% and hails from a Clinton district, so 22 no.

The deciding vote is probably Mike Coffman (Colorado). Clinton and Obama won the district by 9 points, and Coffman won 52-43%. However, the Democrat was well funded and the district includes Denver, Littleton and Aurora. I'd estimate Coffman as wanting to get yes, but he isn't sold on the preexisting conditions enough, so I expect him to be a no. So that's your 23rd no.

This bill is basically going to pass 216-215 if it passes at all. I'd think that it has about 213-215 yesses, and the majority no.

[The Other Castro]

Right now I'm leaning towards this passing with about 20-22 defections. Either way, it's looking uncomfortably close.

[SoLongAtlas]

Yes, no, lean yes updated count at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republicans-health-care-bill_us_5909fdf9e4b02655f84314af?eth

Getting closer and Spicer said they won't go to a vote unless they are sure of passage. Tom Garrett of VA-5 said they are prepared to go into the weekend to get the votes and assure passage.

[Tartarus Sauce]

All this effort just to have it killed in the Senate.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don't get it why the GOP wants to give the dems this big talking point going into 2018 about this bill? Seriously people don't like it an Trump doesn't have the bully pulpit to make it popular

[The_Doctor]

Upton says he's not sure the vote changes convinced anyone other than Long and him. Fuller is saying that the vote counts look weaker than what the leadership is indicating. The 18 No's seem to hold. Coffman is not a yes yet, and indicates he leans no because the preexisting conditions thing is not strong enough for him.

I'm increasingly believing that the Upton Amendment was a false dawn and that the bill remains in deep trouble. The Medicaid expansion being cut is also the hidden reason a lot of No's are there. I also believe there are Republicans that aren't on any list that want to vote no.

NOTE: Please note the grassroots movement is against this as are a number of prominent organizations. I think this is understated but it will likely make it very hard for House Republicans to pass it without extreme political costs.

[krazen1211]

Obamacare will be dead soon:

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Trump wins again!

[MasterJedi]

Obamacare will be dead soon:

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Trump wins again!

Until lots of the House Republicans get booted in 2018 and this dies a horrible death in the Senate!

[Tartarus Sauce]

Obamacare will be dead soon:

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More like Republicans will be dead in the midterms. This is a terrible bill to have your name attached to in any even remotely competitive district. And it's not even likely to clear the senate.