The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[Gass3268]

House GOP is going to be whipping up votes tonight for Trump care 3.0

No debate, CBO score, or reading of the bill. Just trying to jam through something in the first 100 days

Only to have it die in the Senate.

[Shadows]

The ACA taxes are also gone in the tax reform bill. How on earth will they pay the subsidies & how will a shutdown be avoided if they pull the rug off ACA subsidies?

[The_Doctor]

Also have these guys failed to realize that Donald Trump is supremely unpopular and thus the law they want to pass needs some popularity in order to, well, pass?

[The Other Castro]

Also have these guys failed to realize that Donald Trump is supremely unpopular and thus the law they want to pass needs some popularity in order to, well, pass?

The key factor you have forgotten is that every member of Congress is a sociopath.

[publicunofficial]

Also have these guys failed to realize that Donald Trump is supremely unpopular and thus the law they want to pass needs some popularity in order to, well, pass?

Every Republican not named Dent or Ros-Lehtinen thinks they represent Louie Gohmert's district. Hell, a lot of Democrats act that way too.

[The_Doctor]

18 Republicans are a no. So that's 220, they need 216. I doubt they have 216 votes. They can afford only 22 defections.

[Gass3268]

Lots of Republicans in swing districts are dropping off this bill. Costello (PA-06) is the most recent no.

[The_Doctor]

Almost certainly dead in the Senate. They need 50 votes and the Senate has more moderate Republicans. This increasingly looks like a bid to notch an achievement on the 100th day. 

The AARP and the American Hospital Association (I think that's the name) are opposed to this which tells you a lot.

[The Other Castro]

18 Republicans are a no. So that's 220, they need 216. I doubt they have 216 votes. They can afford only 22 defections.

18 Nos already? Wow.

[The_Doctor]

21 now, reportedly. That means at best 217-214. 22 is 216-215. 23 is dead. Most likely there are 23 no's, minimum.

ObamaCare is here to stay IF this is true.

EDIT: http://thehill.com/homenews/house/330966-new-obamacare-repeal-bill-on-life-support#.WQJ7bIGX540.twitter

[Ronnie]

It would really be incredible if we have another spectacle in which the GOP house leadership scrambles for votes, only to end up failing.  At that point, I wonder, would they finally give up?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It would really be incredible if we have another spectacle in which the GOP house leadership scrambles for votes, only to end up failing.  At that point, I wonder, would they finally give up?

Perhaps I'm insufficiently Machiavellian, but I don't understand why they keep doing this.  It's a lose-lose.  If they keep pushing something that can't even pass their own party, they look inept.  If they somehow passed this bill, it would hurt so many people that the GOP would get killed in the midterms.

If they really want to change health care, why don't they take the time to craft a better plan?  Yes, it would be difficult, but complex problems generally don't have simple solutions.  It took the Democrats a long time and a great deal of work to pass Obamacare in the first place.  Do the Republicans really expect it to take less time and effort to come up with a reasonable replacement?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

It would really be incredible if we have another spectacle in which the GOP house leadership scrambles for votes, only to end up failing.  At that point, I wonder, would they finally give up?

Perhaps I'm insufficiently Machiavellian, but I don't understand why they keep doing this.  It's a lose-lose.  If they keep pushing something that can't even pass their own party, they look inept.  If they somehow passed this bill, it would hurt so many people that the GOP would get killed in the midterms.

If they really want to change health care, why don't they take the time to craft a better plan?  Yes, it would be difficult, but complex problems generally don't have simple solutions.  It took the Democrats a long time and a great deal of work to pass Obamacare in the first place.  Do the Republicans really expect it to take less time and effort to come up with a reasonable replacement?

I expect it's a combination of desire to cater to the base Republicans, and pressure from the Great Dealmaker in the White House (who has all the nuance and tact of a spoiled teenager). This way, they can say, "We tried to repeal Obamacare, but <mumble> stopped us." And on another level I expect many party leaders (but not Trump) realize they'd be tying a noose around their own necks electorally if they did repeal it, but don't want to admit that for fear of alienating the above. And finally, if you were Ryan, or any other remotely sane GOP leader, wouldn't it be tempting to hand Trump another failure when he demands success be served up to him on a silver platter? (A weak Trump will need the GOP in Congress more, which is good for the GOP leadership.)

[The_Doctor]

@GeorgiaModerate: The truth is that the Republican Party has caught the car and is now confused what to do. For six, seven years they had a winning issue of repealing ObamaCare and their coalition was okay with all this bluster and rhetoric. It won votes, it was a unifying touchstone, it was a political winner.

When Trump won the reality became harder. They had to repeal the law but replace it with an equivalent law that preserved all the good things. Unfortunately, since Obama stole a ton of Republican ideas in crafting the law, the Republicans aren't left with much in the way of viable options.

The Republican coalition will never point blank accept anything to the left of the law. But because significant blocs rely on Medicaid, the exchanges, the pre-existing conditions being banned, the kids on parents' healthcare, the community ratings and so much else - not to mention the giveaways to Big Pharma - the law has a huge coalition behind it. So repeal is out of the question. A meaningful replacement is also out of the question.

Since the Republicans never campaigned on a replacement plan, and since Trump won on a populist agenda that promised to protect entitlement spending,  the party can't easily toss the Medicaid expansion or clipping many of the benefits.

The activists are pushing hard in the delusion that they can push the House and Senate Republican conferences to pass a meaningful replacement. Ryan is trying to please the White House, who is the only stakeholder who wants the law gone, aside from activists. The House and Senate Republican conferences don't want Republican turnout down in 2018 so they're hoping for a repeal - and someone else to do it.

[Gass3268]

House GOP backs off again

Didn't have the votes.

[Dr. Arch]

House GOP backs off again

Didn't have the votes.

This level of failure is outstanding.

[Brittain33]

I admit, when Ryan said he supported Trump because "he'll sign the bills we send him" as a Democrat I found that terrifying and depressingly plausible.

The reality has been much more fun.

[Ronnie]

House GOP backs off again

Didn't have the votes.

I have to give credit where credit is due: the house GOP did an excellent job at keeping their health care foibles under wraps this time around; the media hardly covered the new health care negotiations. They must be learning from their mistakes, in that respect at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is beautiful.

[Blue3]

Maybe 4th time will be the charm?

TrumpCare 4.0 ... another political disaster, coming to a Republican congressman near you

[Matty]

Why are people here saying it "died". Am I missing something? It's a regular occurence not to put something on the floor if you don't have enough votes.

There are 19 no votes and enough undecideds that if half vote for it, it will be enough.

[Devout Centrist]

Why are people here saying it "died". Am I missing something? It's a regular occurence not to put something on the floor if you don't have enough votes.

There are 19 no votes and enough undecideds that if half vote for it, it will be enough.

We don't even have a solid whip count, so the no's are probably higher.

[Crumpets]

Hey! Hey! Donald J!
How many times were you cucked today?

[Matty]

Why are people here saying it "died". Am I missing something? It's a regular occurence not to put something on the floor if you don't have enough votes.

There are 19 no votes and enough undecideds that if half vote for it, it will be enough.

We don't even have a solid whip count, so the no's are probably higher.

All I am saying is that it's not an uncommon occurrence to delay legislation. The ACA was delayed 6 times in the house, and IIRC, TARP was delayed twice.

This is a much better position now than a month ago.

Get it through the house, let the moderates do what they want with it in joint committees, and be done with it.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It was never going to be voted on this week, and anyone who said it would be was being silly. The House will pass it next week or the week after. The Senate is the real battlefield.