The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[Person Man]

I can just hear her a annoying trembling voice right now "Iii aaam oopen toooo phaaasinggg ooutt mmeeedicareee ooverrr sssevennnn yearssss".

You're aware that's a medical condition she has?

Why be empathetic about the medical conditions of a woman whose about to send 23 million people off of health care?

My thoughts too, but I did delete that since it's probably not in the best taste if she indeed does have a condition.

But seriously, her whole fake moderate routine is just too predictable at this point.

If this disgrace passes the Senate 50-50, and Susan Collins votes for it, then Maine's odd obsession with Republican faux moderates is the cause for 23 million losing their health care.

Hopefully, she gets a decent challenger from there.

Rumor has it she's leaving the Senate after 2018. She's basically sending millions of Americans to an early grave then ditching the scene of the crime.

A real lowlife Collins is

With NV, AZ, and maybe Cruz, that makes the senate possible.

[Mr.Phips]

I can just hear her a annoying trembling voice right now "Iii aaam oopen toooo phaaasinggg ooutt mmeeedicareee ooverrr sssevennnn yearssss".

You're aware that's a medical condition she has?

Why be empathetic about the medical conditions of a woman whose about to send 23 million people off of health care?

My thoughts too, but I did delete that since it's probably not in the best taste if she indeed does have a condition.

But seriously, her whole fake moderate routine is just too predictable at this point.

If this disgrace passes the Senate 50-50, and Susan Collins votes for it, then Maine's odd obsession with Republican faux moderates is the cause for 23 million losing their health care.

It still bothers me that Bill Clinton couldn't help Joe Brennan beat Collins on his coattails in 1996 in that open seat race.  Clinton won Maine by 20 points, yet Collins still won that race as a non incumbent.  So frustrating.

[Virginiá]

Apparently, Congresses bill is even more harsh than the House bill. Congresses bill pretty much totally kills Medicaid. Medicaid will be even more barebones than it was pre-Obamacare.

I wonder why they think this will pay off somehow. Gutting Medicaid and causing millions to lose healthcare could easily cause Republicans to lose Congress fully by 2020, at which point Democrats can just reinstate what was taken away, and probably add a lot more.

There is really no way stripping the safety net so they can help fund tax cuts for the wealthy is going to play well the public. It never has.

[GlobeSoc]

If they ram through and pass a medicare-killing law, that's a surefire way to cancel out the Trump gains in rural areas.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Okay. That's it. They actively hate the American people. If Democratic gains in 2018 don't at least equal Democratic gains in 1932 then there's no hope for this place and the cause of freedom will just have to start over again somewhere else.

[Hammy]

If they ram through and pass a medicare-killing law, that's a surefire way to cancel out the Trump gains in rural areas.

They'll spin it and (successfully) pin the blame on Obamacare, just watch.

[GlobeSoc]

If they ram through and pass a medicare-killing law, that's a surefire way to cancel out the Trump gains in rural areas.

They'll spin it and (successfully) pin the blame on Obamacare, just watch.

I said cancel out the gains, not win these areas.

[Person Man]

Probably more than 23 million will lise care. Republicans think they are locked in and that they have their own ethnic bloc now to abuse and get away with heinous corruption to boot. Wouldn't surprise me if they caught running drugs or prostitutes out of their offices at this rate. Eventually abortions when they enable personhood.

[Virginiá]

Okay. That's it. They actively hate the American people. If Democratic gains in 2018 don't at least equal Democratic gains in 1932 then there's no hope for this place and the cause of freedom will just have to start over again somewhere else.

To be fair, those gains were monstrous (Almost 100 House seat gains, >300 majority), and it happened after the recession had been going on for a while.

Compare to now, with what looks like a drawn out timetable for Medicaid defunding. They are purposefully structuring this so the funding runs out under what I assume they believe will be a Democratic presidency. They are trying to make sure the blame falls on Democrats. I'd expect huge gains if millions lose insurance by the 2018 elections, but if it takes longer, it probably won't be as bad. Bad, but not monstrous.

A slow defunding process like that is why I think Democrats will use the first chance they get to restore funding/fix everything - they'd have to be insane not to. Whichever party holds the White House when the poo hits the fan is going to pay dearly.

[The_Doctor]

You should understand the secrecy and the way McConnell is doing it is symptomatic, I believe, of McConnell intending a vote but not intending to care about the bill post vote. He wants to put the Senate Republicans on record on repealing the AHCA and produce a dead body, most likely (the dream of ACA repeal). If they wanted to pass and sell the bill, they would be trying to spin the bill massively and trying to lay the groundwork for the public getting behind it. McConnell is a pro who reads numbers (he knows that more voters care about the ACA than Russia) and he knows that if this risked becoming law, the Republican caucus would need to be doing a lot more than this 20 hour debate session. (Yes, I know McConnell has been scheduling thrice a week policy luncheons on the law and trying to create room for passage. Doesn't mean he cares about passage of a law).

McConnell doesn't want a nasty drawn out Senate vote. He wants this to go back to the House and all the pressure put on the House to fail it, if it passes the Senate. If it fails the Senate, he doesn't care. He's in classic "this is not our problem" mode. He's done with the drama. He wants to get to the point where he cuts a deal with Schumer to "reform" the law and call it a win. He knows this is the only real out at this point.

Ditto the fact no Senate Republicans have seen the bill suggests strongly to me that McConnell is doing this to minimise exposure, get a vote up, and get on to taxes, where they'll be doing a lot more public relations footwork. They haven't even shown the WH the legislative copy and the President hasn't been selling this at all.

Trumpy being silent is the biggest tell the Senate GOP isn't planning to care about the AHCA. The power of the presidential pulpit is needed to sell the bill to the public if it became law. That's how it works. Trump isn't even messaging about it even on a cursory basis. He's let the opposition consume the air waves and all the talk to define the ACA and the AHCA this year.

So, I could be wrong, but I think the Senate GOP is going to cut bait. This is all, by the way, pretty much what the Framers intended about legislation like the AHCA. The Senate, by design, is intended to slow walk and kill bills that would cause a massive backlash. This is a big reason the ACA took like a year to pass and barely passed cloture.

[Virginiá]

Trumpy being silent is the biggest tell the Senate GOP isn't planning to care about the AHCA. The power of the presidential pulpit is needed to sell the bill to the public if it became law. That's how it works. Trump isn't even messaging about it even on a cursory basis. He's let the opposition consume the air waves and all the talk to define the ACA and the AHCA this year.

Is it possible they are just using the Trump-Russia scandal as cover? They are doing all their work in secret, and the scandals are allowing that to happen without as much of a fuss as there normally might be.

I'm just wondering if Senate passage would be enough to get attention on it, and if the House could actually agree on something. Or is the point that Mitch won't let the bill pass, even if it could?

[The_Doctor]

Trumpy being silent is the biggest tell the Senate GOP isn't planning to care about the AHCA. The power of the presidential pulpit is needed to sell the bill to the public if it became law. That's how it works. Trump isn't even messaging about it even on a cursory basis. He's let the opposition consume the air waves and all the talk to define the ACA and the AHCA this year.

Is it possible they are just using the Trump-Russia scandal as cover? They are doing all their work in secret, and the scandals are allowing that to happen without as much of a fuss as there normally might be.

I'm just wondering if Senate passage would be enough to get attention on it, and if the House could actually agree on something. Or is the point that Mitch won't let the bill pass, even if it could?

Sorry, I meant to do my usual monologue of three long winded posts but I went to shower and forgot.

It's not, in my view, really possible to pass a major law, even with a scandal like Russia, in total secrecy. It affects 1/6th of the economy and tens of millions of people. Voters, in fact, consistently rank healthcare ahead of Russia on their list of concerns. So, eventually, any bill passed would undergo heavy scrutiny, if not outright condemnation. You'd have the GOP being attacked for a year for killing the expansion, threatening the Medicaid status of people, and weakening the healthcare markets. Even if they passed and signed a law, there would be a strong outcry.

No Congressman or Senator wants to deal with that crap. I think if I were McConnell, I'd kill the law, and then immediately push tax reform through and try to send people home in September with that win under the GOP's belt.

I'm not really sure the GOP wants to go into 2018 with Russia and healthcare around their necks along with a weakening economy and undisciplined President. I don't think Mitch McC wants to either so I think a lot of this is him trying to minimize the outrage, get something up for a vote, and then get on with life.

Could McConnell be trying to pass something but have Schumer and Co agree to push for amendments on a 'bipartisan fix'? No, I don't think so, because the Democrats would have the public on their side and they would push hard for restoring the ACA.

Remember, the ACA was a live issue for Democrats for eight years. Why would the GOP want to create a long running live issue that simply motivates Democrats to vote?

[Person Man]

Trumpy being silent is the biggest tell the Senate GOP isn't planning to care about the AHCA. The power of the presidential pulpit is needed to sell the bill to the public if it became law. That's how it works. Trump isn't even messaging about it even on a cursory basis. He's let the opposition consume the air waves and all the talk to define the ACA and the AHCA this year.

Is it possible they are just using the Trump-Russia scandal as cover? They are doing all their work in secret, and the scandals are allowing that to happen without as much of a fuss as there normally might be.

I'm just wondering if Senate passage would be enough to get attention on it, and if the House could actually agree on something. Or is the point that Mitch won't let the bill pass, even if it could?

Sorry, I meant to do my usual monologue of three long winded posts but I went to shower and forgot.

It's not, in my view, really possible to pass a major law, even with a scandal like Russia, in total secrecy. It affects 1/6th of the economy and tens of millions of people. Voters, in fact, consistently rank healthcare ahead of Russia on their list of concerns. So, eventually, any bill passed would undergo heavy scrutiny, if not outright condemnation. You'd have the GOP being attacked for a year for killing the expansion, threatening the Medicaid status of people, and weakening the healthcare markets. Even if they passed and signed a law, there would be a strong outcry.

No Congressman or Senator wants to deal with that crap. I think if I were McConnell, I'd kill the law, and then immediately push tax reform through and try to send people home in September with that win under the GOP's belt.

I'm not really sure the GOP wants to go into 2018 with Russia and healthcare around their necks along with a weakening economy and undisciplined President. I don't think Mitch McC wants to either so I think a lot of this is him trying to minimize the outrage, get something up for a vote, and then get on with life.

Could McConnell be trying to pass something but have Schumer and Co agree to push for amendments on a 'bipartisan fix'? No, I don't think so, because the Democrats would have the public on their side and they would push hard for restoring the ACA.

Remember, the ACA was a live issue for Democrats for eight years. Why would the GOP want to create a long running live issue that simply motivates Democrats to vote?

Because they think it doesn't matter because no one thinks they are going anywhere.The election today, if Handel wins, will solidify the notion that Republicans have a locked in electorate because of their feudal party machine.

[The_Doctor]

Said “feudal machine” isn't good enough. 46% of the Presidential vote and 49% of the House vote sucks. I would be willing to wager that number drops a couple of points in 2018 if Donnie stays at 40% or below.

I still don't see how Republicans don't figure they can make a primary challenge and general election problem go away if they fix the ACA and take that off the table. Base activists don't get that much leeway to toss a senator on endorsing a popular fix.

[Person Man]

Said “feudal machine” isn't good enough. 46% of the Presidential vote and 49% of the House vote sucks. I would be willing to wager that number drops a couple of points in 2018 if Donnie stays at 40% or below.

I still don't see how Republicans don't figure they can make a primary challenge and general election problem go away if they fix the ACA and take that off the table. Base activists don't get that much leeway to toss a senator on endorsing a popular fix.

It's always darkest before Don, right? No president since FDR won two terms and still kept congress...and amazingly, no Republican.

[KingSweden]

My new policy on anything related to the GOP mindset is to just listen to TD

And he's right. The GOP has been laying groundwork for tax reform like crazy. Not a peep about HC

[Person Man]

My new policy on anything related to the GOP mindset is to just listen to TD

And he's right. The GOP has been laying groundwork for tax reform like crazy. Not a peep about HC

He is worth listening to if the next month comes to pass without a HC bill on OO desk.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is pure evil.

I really hope TD is right, but I can't exactly feel relieved right now.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is the part that I always fall back to whenever I think the Senate might actually pass this thing. Politically it doesn't make sense to have this bill become law.

They may get a short bump in the polls, but long-term this bill will sink them since they would effectively own the issue of healthcare and all of it's problems. As much as they want to, they can't blame Democrats.

Better to have this thing flop and move on to something else and then months later cut a deal with Democrats and claim you "saved" the ACA. The public won't notice and the press will never call them out for their hypocrisy.

[The_Doctor]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is the part that I always fall back to whenever I think the Senate might actually pass this thing. Politically it doesn't make sense to have this bill become law.

They may get a short bump in the polls, but long-term this bill will sink them since they would effectively own the issue of healthcare and all of it's problems. As much as they want to, they can't blame Democrats.

Better to have this thing flop and move on to something else and then months later cut a deal with Democrats and claim you "saved" the ACA. The public won't notice and the press will never call them out for their hypocrisy.

Exactly ... we even have precedent. In 1988, Congress passed a health care law dealing with catastrophic premiums. It was such a flop that in 1989, they repealed it.

This is pure evil.

I really hope TD is right, but I can't exactly feel relieved right now.

Yeah, I'm definitely going on a limb here. But I'm fairly confident that the usual signs of a major initiative becoming law isn't there. There's no media staging, there's no foreshadowing, Trump isn't going out there to sell the law, his approvals are way in the dumps, they're not being open, there's a ton of things that make me think they're doing kabuki theater.

In my honest perception, the GOP does NOT want to pass a law that they would be saddled with. They did this to the Democrats for 8 years and why would they want to go through that hell? Why would you want to go through "23 million lose Medicaid" as an attack line for 8 years?

Think of it this way: that's something the GOP has to always defend. The longer the ramp out, the longer they have to defend the potential consequences. Example: the Democratic nominee in Maine would charge "Collins voted for a law that would kick you off Medicaid in 2023. Why are you giving her a x term in response to that?"

It just creates a live issue that stays alive.

My new policy on anything related to the GOP mindset is to just listen to TD

And he's right. The GOP has been laying groundwork for tax reform like crazy. Not a peep about HC

Hopefully I'm right. Worth mentioning: I'm basing the GOP mindset on the usual American political mindset that costs and benefits are weighed against each other in terms of electability and sustainable electoral models. The GOP went through Bush. I'd be puzzled why they would want to repeat W's presidency on steroids domestically in terms of repealing the ACA and generating nonstop healthcare negative coverage.

See my points about the GOP not doing anything to tee up the spin for healthcare coverage. It's all about getting to tax reform and the reconciliation vehicle.

Said “feudal machine” isn't good enough. 46% of the Presidential vote and 49% of the House vote sucks. I would be willing to wager that number drops a couple of points in 2018 if Donnie stays at 40% or below.

I still don't see how Republicans don't figure they can make a primary challenge and general election problem go away if they fix the ACA and take that off the table. Base activists don't get that much leeway to toss a senator on endorsing a popular fix.

It's always darkest before Don, right? No president since FDR won two terms and still kept congress...and amazingly, no Republican.

This is unusual but accurate.

My new policy on anything related to the GOP mindset is to just listen to TD

And he's right. The GOP has been laying groundwork for tax reform like crazy. Not a peep about HC

He is worth listening to if the next month comes to pass without a HC bill on OO desk.

I would dispute this in the sense that I think I say valid things about a number of GOP priorities. If you read my timeline, about RyanCare, it passed the House after a furious battle because of the fight over the Medicaid expansion. That's exactly what's happening now. The GOP's ancient issue is that they want to cut benefits but voters hate that concept (but their core activists love it).

There are fundamental disconnects between the Republican Party's stated goals and what the American electorate will tolerate as far as benefits go. That disconnect has existed since they became a majority coalition in 1980 (allied with the Southern Democrats).

This is why repealing ObamaCare is so hard. It's why they can never touch Medicare or really change Medicaid or Social Security. The public is just invested in their benefits as a way of life and the Republican conundrum is to fundamentally challenge it without providing legitimate and concrete assurances that people won't be harmed.

[The_Doctor]

Basically, I've come to endorse Vox's framing even if I think they're a little too liberal and cute by half. The GOP cares about tax cuts and "starving the beast" as far as they can electorally maintain their coalition. There's widespread agreement about tax cuts, widespread agreement that they can get away with some budget cuts, but they don't simply have the firepower to take down Medicaid, Medicare, or Social Security, or at this point, the more popular parts of the ObamaCare law.

Also, don't forget. The GOP base is perpetually in a state of accepting the current entitlements but hating future ones. They're far more realistic than they like to pretend in a lot of ways. They are big on cutting their losses as far as wars go on the welfare state.

Lastly, never forget this. The GOP vote is split between upscale white middle class families and struggling evangelical blue collar Republicans. These blue collar Republicans are what makes the GOP the majority coalition. They come from the Midwest and the South. They're also heavily reliant on things like the Medicaid expansion. McConnell knows this extremely well; his own KY is one of the poorest states in the Union and one of the most reliant on welfare programs.

Does anyone here think Mitch is going to undermine Kynect or his constituents' benefits? No, because Mitch has spent 40 years building the Kentucky Republican Party and knows that if the communities lose their benefits and vote their anger, they'll undo his work.

Donald Trump may not care (he may not even be President when this finishes) but McConnell, Portman, Toomey, Moore Capito, Burr, these guys who have spent decades building their state Republican parties do care. They know their constituencies and know that these constituents will go on voting their evangelical beliefs only and only if their economic situation is assured. And that includes healthcare benefits granted and woven into the safety net under Obama.

It's (to me) as simple as that.

[The_Doctor]

Because they think it doesn't matter because no one thinks they are going anywhere.The election today, if Handel wins, will solidify the notion that Republicans have a locked in electorate because of their feudal party machine.

Let me save this quote and let's see the result and I'll respond based on the results.

[American2020]

About Tax Cuts

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-obamacare-repeal-would-cut-taxes-but-mostly-in-blue-states/?ex_cid=538fb

[This is Eharding, guys]

About Tax Cuts

This is the main reason why Republicans in the Senate aren't going to come up with enough votes to pass this thing. It'll be much easier in the House.

[krazen1211]

U Can't Handel This.


I suspect an amazing victory in GA-06 will result in Yuge Trumpmentum to pass Obamacare repeal.