The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[Hammy]

It's going to be hysterical if this goes to the floor and loses 215-216.  Although I think that would be a better outcome for the Republicans than it passing.

IMO the rank of possible outcomes, from best to worst for the GOP, would be:

1. No House vote.
2. Fails in House.
3. Passes House, fails in Senate.
4. Passes both, Trump vetoes (unlikely).
5. Bill becomes law.

Thoughts?

I think these two are the most likely outcomes, and I'm leaning towards 5--if the House passes it, moderates in the Senate will lock step with the party line and the Dems will be the only ones voting no.

[Hammy]

It's going to be hysterical if this goes to the floor and loses 215-216.  Although I think that would be a better outcome for the Republicans than it passing.

IMO the rank of possible outcomes, from best to worst for the GOP, would be:

1. No House vote.
2. Fails in House.
3. Passes House, fails in Senate.
4. Passes both, Trump vetoes (unlikely).
5. Bill becomes law.

Thoughts?

I think these two are the most likely outcomes, and I'm leaning towards 5--if the House passes it, moderates in the Senate will lock step with the party line and the Dems will be the only ones voting no.

What makes you think so?  First, moderate Republican congressmen will largely vote against the bill, and they represent a much smaller percentage of the house than the senate.  Second, moderate Republican senators expressed deep concern over the bill's previous iteration, and if anything, this one is even more draconian than the last.  Allowing states to avoid covering pre-existing conditions is nothing but a poison pill for anyone other than the safest Republicans.  Not to mention, unlike congressmen, senators represent entire states with diverse populations, making them far more susceptible and accountable to interest groups like the AARP.

If it passes the house, Senate moderates will be emboldened by it, and then can cover themselves by convincing their states to keep preexisting, yet leaving the door open for more conservative states to drop it--the Dems won't be numerous in those states to vote out the ones that do so.

Why are people voting yes for this? Seriously. Has any benefit been publicized that people accept as, well, a benefit? To anyone?

Obviously Obamacare supporters like myself and (presumably) you aren't the audience they're trying to appeal to here. They're appealing to Obamacare haters and Obamacare haters only.

Which is unwise of them, because the momentum has swung against them on healthcare.

As if the Republicans actually care to start with? As long as they've forced their will into law, they feel they've won, because everybody will have to deal with the end result no matter how much they oppose it.

[Hammy]

Wow Senate is already drawing up it's own bill http://www.mediaite.com/online/senate-reportedly-wont-even-vote-on-house-health-care-bill-will-write-their-own/

Does that pretty much mean the House version is DOA?

[Hammy]

lol, Trump just said this bill is great, the Senate will make it even better, and Australia's healthcare is even better than the GOP bill they have!!!!!!!!!!!!

Isn't Australia single-payer?

[Hammy]

How are all those 50-64 year old Republicans, whose premiums have been effectively "subsidized" by younger people paying more, going to react when they see their insurance costs go up?

No doubt they'll try to blame Obamacare, claiming they're some lingering effects of it.

[Hammy]

If they ram through and pass a medicare-killing law, that's a surefire way to cancel out the Trump gains in rural areas.

They'll spin it and (successfully) pin the blame on Obamacare, just watch.