Now that Confused Democrat has said he regrets
making his excellent thread, as the only person out of 93 people to vote for Tulsi in
the March poll, I will carry on the banner of the Tulsi faithful. Although I strongly dislike Tulsi, and would not support her, she will nonetheless win the Democratic nomination. Below I will lay out my argument so you can judge it for yourself.
1. The reasons Confused Democrat gives still applies. As he said:
Nothing has changed. I have long been a proponent of using social media enthusiasm as a gauge for political prediction. The strength of his predictor has only grown steadily since the days when liberals used to make fun of Ron Paul cultists in their mom's basements (or before that, when Howard Dean's Meet-Up driven campaign fell flat in the Iowa caucus). My predictive philosophy was best articulated
in this post where I correctly predicted Christine Quinn's loss in the 2013 NYC mayoral primary, based on nothing but the comments section of the
New York Daily News website. I
again applied my methodology in March 2015, when I first used the
Washington Post website's comments section to accurately forecast that Hillary Clinton would lose the 2016 election. It was more accurate than Nate Silver. I again used online comments, this time from reddit,
in early May 2015 to correctly predict that Bernie Sanders had big momentum.
2. Now, some people used to criticize me for making a few wrong predictions in the past. One user, Joe Republic, predicted that I was like a "weather vane" who always pointed in the wrong direction; he hasn't been around much lately, has he? Another user, BRTD, continues to insist that Tulsi will not be the nominee solely because I predicted it. I get crap about posting about Ebola and Fukushima. But a
closer look at my prediction record shows it's actually very good. There have been many times over the years when I have been right about major events, and the majority of forum users have been wrong. Furthermore, one of my few wrong predictions, that Donald Trump would not win the GOP nomination, was when I went against my own methodology of using online enthusiasm.
3. Tulsi does things that are popular.
This is what really gets me. We live in a country where democratic elections play a big role in a politician's success, yet for some reason, other than Tulsi and maybe Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, there aren't actually any politicians in the country who take popular positions. Tulsi does. For this reason alone, she is set to win the nomination.
A preview of the huge, Bernie Sanders style rallies that are coming for Tulsi occurred
last week in Kona, where 500 people showed up to give her a standing ovation. If she runs, it'll be just like 2015 all over again. Huge rallies to thousands of people, especially young people, all over the country.
4. Nothing good has happened in this country since the 2000 election.
Tulsi's nomination, and the massive support behind her, would just be another manifestation of the popular insanity that has gripped the country since 2000. First, the neocon enthusiasm that got us into Iraq; then, the housing bubble mania that nearly destroyed the economy; then, the anti-bailout mania that spawned the tea party; then, the Obama mania where he would magically fix partisanship and change everything; then, the Bernie and Trump mania. Each and every mania has turned out to be a complete bust, yet they just keep coming. The instincts of the American people are consistently terrible. A Tulsi mania would just continue on the trend. Therefore, everything in recent history indicates it will occur.
In conclusion, this is why Tulsi will likely win the 2020 Democratic nomination.
