Vox Populi – Another UK Election Series (Master Thread)

[Lumine]

Vox Populi:

As Gaitskell and Supermac leave the stage, what is to become of the UK?

List of British Prime Ministers:

Harold Macmillan (Conservative Majority): January 1957 - October 1963

Quintin Hogg (Conservative Majority): October 1963 - October 1964

James Callaghan (Labour Majority): October 1964 - May 1972

Denis Healey (Acting, Labour Minority): May 1972 - June 1972

Harold Macmillan (National Government Majority): June 1972 - February 1973

Alfred Robens (National Government Majority): February 1973 - January 1975

Peter Shore (Labour Minority with SNP / PC support): January 1975 - March 1978

Enoch Powell (Conservative Majority): March 1978 - October 1985

Norman Tebbit (Conservative Majority): October 1985 - October 1987

Denis Healey (Labour Minority): October 1987 - January 1988

Margaret Beckett (SLP-Labour Coalition with SDLP support): January 1988 - March 1989

Norman Tebbit (Conservative Majority): March 1989 - June 1993

Margaret Beckett (SLP Minority): June 1993 - Present

Intro:

Yes, this is the sequel. Having ruled out 1945 (not enough knowledge) and 1974 or the 1980's (too close to Primus Inter Pares for now), it's the sixties that I've decided to delve into. Our focus is the year of 1963, where both Prime Minister Harold Macmillan and Leader of the Opposition Hugh Gaitskell left their roles: Macmillan due to a troubled resignation, Gaitskell due to his untimely demise. So we start with the leadership contests for both main parties, with a few twists. Like Primus Inter Pares, we will be following internal races, referendums and general elections and see how a different Britain develops. Starting with the party elected in 1964, the party in government will face a 1% swing to the Opposition for every electoral victory.

List of Conservative Leaders:

Harold Macmillan: 1957-1963
Quintin Hogg: 1963 - 1967
Enoch Powell: 1967 - 1985
Norman Tebbit: 1985 - 1993
TBD: 1993 - Present

List of Labour Leaders:

Hugh Gaitskell: 1955-1963
James Callaghan: 1963 - 1972

Peter Shore: 1972 - 1979
Denis Healey: 1979 - 1988
David Owen: 1988 - 1994
TBD: 1994 - Present

List of Liberal Leaders:

Jo Grimond: 1956 - 1968
Eric Lubbock: 1968 - 1980
Michael Steed: 1980 - 1983
Richard Wainwright: 1983 - 1988
David Penhaligon: 1988 - Current

List of Socialist Labour Leaders:

Eric Heffer: 1980 - 1988
Margaret Beckett: 1988 - Current

List of Celtic League Leaders:

Dafydd Iwan: 1991 - Current

List of Democratic Leaders:

Chris Patten: 1992 - Current

[MAINEiac4434]

YES!!!

[Barnes]

Oh good, what an exciting time! Anyone for a party at Cliveden?

[MAINEiac4434]

Oh good, what an exciting time! Anyone for a party at Cliveden?

Hey Barnes, how's your Australian series coming along?

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Process, 1963:

Quintin Hogg, then Lord Hailsham, takes over

The sudden resignation of Harold Macmillan over a health scare and the dismal situation of his Government months before a General Election left the party at the middle of the conference season scrambling for a successor. Without a clear mechanism to select a leader it would be left to a complex process of consultation inside different parts of the Conservative Party to find the most popular or the least divisive man to become the Prime Minister, and with Lord Home being ruled out on his apparent lack of interest, and younger men like Edward Heath and Iain Macleod considered too junior, it was left for Rab Butler, Quintin Hogg and Reginald Maudling to battle for the succession.

It quickly became evident that the majority of the party was unwilling to crown Butler - much like in the aftermath of Eden's resignation in 1957 - on account of his views and his apparent lack of charisma and political skill to be up to the job. With about a quarter of the party having soldiered on for Butler, it meant the anti-Butler vote was up for grabs between Maudling and Hogg, and both realized that the Party Conference was the perfect opportunity to make a lasting impression and seize the momentum. Maudling became infamously known for delivering a terrible speech before the party faithful, alienating even some of his supporters due to his bland and poorly received oratory.

It was to be Lord Hailsham who lit up the conference floor. Delivering an impassioned speech that rallied against the dangers of Socialism and the relevance of Conservatism for Britain he won over the conference - aided by having countless supporters engage in a modern style-campaign -. Despite many of the senior men finding Hailsham's antics more than a bit distasteful, it was clear he was the favourite of the party. Successful on his plans to prevent Butler from seizing the leadership Macmillan happily recommended Lord Hailsham to the Queen, who called onto him to form a government. Hailsham readily renounced his peerage to become Quintin Hogg once again, winning a by-election for the safe seat of St. Marylebone by the first week of December 1963.

And yet, could Hogg revive a weakened Conservative Party and win the seemingly impossible challenge of the 1964 Election?

[Barnes]

I wonder if the Tories will feel the need to reform their internal election procedure seeing as the conclave went pretty smoothly?

[Lumine]

I wonder if the Tories will feel the need to reform heir internal election procedure seeing as the conclave went pretty smoothly?

There's certainly going to be far less of a push for reform as the shenanigans that took place to put Douglas-Home as PM never happened, so the party is far less bitter about the contest (Macleod and Powell didn't resign from the Cabinet, for example). It could go either way, particularly depending on the GE performance.

[Lumine]

Labour Leadership Election, 1963:

James Callaghan, heir to Gaitskell

First Ballot:

James Callaghan: 31.4%
George Brown: 25.7%
Harold Wilson: 22.9%
Anthony Greenwood: 20.0%

Final Ballot:

James Callaghan: 60.7%
George Brown: 39.3%

The unexpected death of Hugh Gaitskell left Labour in shock with less than two years before the next General Election, leading to serious concerns on whether the Gaitskellites or the old Bevanites would manage to take control of the party. With heir apparent and Deputy Leader George Brown thought too divisive, too flawed to lead the party and several pretenders angling for the crown, Brown was challenged at the leadership election by Harold Wilson, James Callaghan and Anthony Greenwood. Both wings of the party were fully represented, the Gaitskellites by Brown and by Callaghan and the Bevanites and the soft left having Greenwood and Wilson as their own standard bearers.

Due to the divided nature of the field the first ballot was widely considered to be an eliminating one, selecting the candidate of the left and the candidate for the right that would face the final ballot. That this never happened was due to a number of significant factors during the campaign, believed by some to be motivated by the bitter fight of Greenwood and Wilson to become the challenger from the left - which is argued, cost them both moderate votes -, the still significant support commanded by Brown on the parliamentary party, and most importantly, the rise of James Callaghan. Nicknamed "Sunny Jim", Callaghan danced carefully around the other candidates by avoiding the harsher attacks, while at the same time building a profile as the champion of the working class voters and undermining Brown and Wilson's base of support.

At the first ballot, therefore, Callaghan led with over 30% of support, narrowly followed by Brown, Greenwood and Wilson in a fight that saw the Deputy Leader managing to enter the final round. Taking full advantage of the concerns over Brown's performance as a potential leader and future Prime Minister Callaghan became the default option of the disaffected Labour left due to the hardline Labour right views of Brown, and effectively trounced him on the final round with over 60% support. Seeking to heal the party after his unexpected rise to power Callaghan ensured Brown was reelected unopposed as Deputy Leader, and immediately reshuffled his cabinet:

Labour Leader: Jim Callaghan
Deputy Labour Leader: George Brown
Shadow Chancellor: Harold Wilson
Shadow Home Secretary: Bob Mellish
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Patrick Gordon-Walker

But would Callaghan be the one to win back Downing Street for Labour?

[Lumine]

The Hogg Ministry (1963-1964)

Hogg does his best to revive Conservatism before the election

Prime Minister: Quintin Hogg
DPM/Foreign Secretary: Rab Butler
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Peter Thorneycroft
Home Secretary: Reginald Maudling

Quintin Hogg entered Downing Street on October 1963 with a tough job ahead: with twelve months before an election which seemed unwinnable he had to unite the Conservatives and revive the government into fighting shape. This effort began with the inevitable reshuffle of the cabinet, expanding Rab Butler’s powers by combining the role of Deputy Prime Minister with the Foreign Office, moving Maudling to the Home Office, and promoting key supporter Peter Thorneycroft to return as Chancellor of the Exchequer, while younger men such as Julian Amery and Edward Heath also faced significant promotion. For the most part Hogg was able to lead a united party in government due to the strong support offered by the backbenchers and the constituency associations, allowing him to focus both on the party image and on key policy matters.

The main concern of the new government was to stabilize the economy and engineer a boom before the election, and the man selected for the task was Peter Thorneycroft. Moving away from the Keynesian policies of spending increases Thorneycroft persuaded Hogg to make certain experiments into monetarism, delivering a 1964 budget with significant cuts in spending and taxation and a change in monetary policy to target inflation. The gamble worked far beyond the expectations of Hogg, with inflation lowering for the first time in years through late 1964 as growth was sustained, allowing Prime Minister Hogg to turn away the spectre of the devaluation of the pound some had thought almost unavoidable.

Lacking time to have a firmer impact on domestic policy Hogg nonetheless succeeded in spearheading two key policies: implementation of a “growth centre” policy of infrastructure, public services and housing on impoverished or economically depressed areas to foster development, and a full-scale approach towards “modernization” of government by promoting research into applied sciences, new technologies and educational reform focused on expansion and further support for universities. Less successful – and indeed, the main focus for criticism of his government – was the handling of foreign affairs. The successful independence process of Northern Rhodesia and Nyasaland paled compared to the awful relationship between Hogg and John Kennedy, particularly over UK trade with Cuba. Even worse was the collapse of the relationship with new Prime Minister Ian Smith and Southern Rhodesia over independence and potential majority rule, with the situation quickly escalating into threats of unilateral independence from Smith and of use of force by Hogg close to the election.

An area that would prove damaging for the new government was the continued backlash due to continued financial scandals from a few prominent MP’s and junior ministers, perpetuating the stigma of the Vassall and Profumo affairs. The only relief on this front for Prime Minister Hogg has the lacklustre performance of the Opposition so far, with Labour leader James Callaghan subject to constant attacks by the social liberal wing his party and Jo Grimond’s Liberals seizing attention from excellent performances through the few by-elections up to the General Election. Having delayed to the last possible moment as the economy has begun to do remarkably well, on October 1964 Prime Minister Quintin Hogg and the Tories went to the country to make their case before the public.

[Lumine]

October 1964 General Election:

October 1964 - Callaghan forms the first Labour government in 13 years

Labour Party: 43.5% (321 MP's)
Conservative Party: 40.5% (296 MP's)
Liberal Party: 14.2% (13 MP's)
Others: 1.8% (0 MP's)

Having waited as long as possible, Prime Minister Quintin Hogg and the Tories went all out in the campaign trail in an attempt to win a historic but unlikely fifth victory, facing a competent - if somewhat flawed - opposition in Callaghan's Labour and Grimond's Liberals. It was in many ways a campaign of personalities, leading to the famous scenes of a slightly drunk George Brown attacking the Conservatives on a series of endearing - if slightly embarrassing - speeches, or Prime Minister Hogg showing his temper by crushing a pro-Callaghan sign with his walking stick. With all parties taking advantage of new ways of doing political campaigning to try and mobilize the electorate, and the polls on the first days showing the race to tighten, expectation grew.

It was in that context that the idea of a debate was conceived. Inspired as well on the showdown between Nixon and Kennedy in 1960, representatives of both main parties agreed that it would be an interesting idea to have Hogg and Callaghan debate, setting the stage for a direct confrontation. After constant public calls from the Liberals and their increasingly good performance in the polls the BBC finally agreed to include Grimond, and the debate of three leaders became a reality. It was to be a famous night, with both Hogg and Callaghan throwing the kitchen sink at each other with energetic performances that most viewers described as a tie (with Callaghan having the edge due to Hogg's temper). The overall winner, however, was Grimond.

Having been offered a historic chance Grimond made a passionate and coherent case for Liberalism before the audience, particularly seizing on the lack of social liberal stances from both main parties. The expect was explosive, with the Liberal Party rising to more than 20% in the polls but being incredibly hampered by its inability to field a full slate, running only on about 60% of the seats. The Liberal resurgence hurt the Tories on several swing seats far more than it did Labour, and in the end factors such as government fatigue after 13 years in government took their toll. On Election Night Grimond and the Liberals celebrated their best showing since 1929 with an overall 14% of the vote and 13 MP's. The Tories under Hogg had fought a brave battle and held on with 40% and almost 300 MP's.

But it was Labour and Jim Callaghan who'd won the election, having in the end secured a narrow but workable majority of six. "Sunny Jim" went to the palace to form the first Labour Government in 13 years just as Hogg and Grimond prepared to stay on, convinced that an early election was all but sure, and that their chance would come there.

[Lumine]

The Callaghan Ministry (1964-1967)

Sunny Jim, a modern and beleaguered Prime Minister

Prime Minister: James Callaghan
Deputy Prime Minister: George Brown
Foreign Secretary: Patrick Gordon-Walker
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Harold Wilson, then Anthony Crosland
Home Secretary: Bob Mellish

Hampered by the small size of its majority, new Prime Minister James Callaghan resolved nonetheless to make his Government one that would modernize Britain into social progress without betraying the views of the working class voters that made up the "Callaghanite" base, and to his credit Labour held onto three difficult years before being forced into a new General Election. Although the size of his majority was limited Callaghan enjoyed from a mostly loyal party on most issues despite the distrust from the social liberals in the party and the Bevanites, suffering few revolts (most of them directed towards the draconian approach of Home Secretary Bob Mellish). Likewise the party steered clear from major scandals during the Parliament, although the antics of George Brown continued to harm the party before the press and the public.

The most successful area for the Government turned out to be foreign affairs, in an unexpected manner. Steadfast on the policy of majority rule in Rhodesia Callaghan and Gordon-Walker continued their stand-off with Rhodesia until Ian Smith attempted to unilaterally declare independence in early 1965. After much agonizing the Government resolved to attempt a limited intervention with broad international support, and with an internal revolt by the black population Smith was deposed and his regime collapsed, giving Callaghan a reputation for decisiveness. The UK refrained from a second application into the EEC due to fears of another De Gaulle veto, allowing Callaghan and the leading Atlanticists to renew their commitment to NATO and British nuclear weapons, and leave the increasingly contentious issue of the Vietnam War ambiguous (although Callaghan has expressed moral support for the United States and for President Kennedy).

Domestic policy was to be of a more mixed result. On the bright side, Callaghan pushed ahead with the successful renationalization of the steel industry, expanded educational coverage, pursued a significant increase in housing (if of relatively low quality) and achieved significant accomplishments both in technological innovation and civil service reform. On the more controversial side, he and his hardline Home Secretary Bob Mellish became famous for sinking virtually all initiatives on social liberal policies during parliament, disrupting and defeating bills that would have ended the death penalty, legalize abortion and liberalize legislation on drugs, divorce and gay rights. Mellish took an increasingly tough and authoritarian line on crime, and Callaghan himself began to push for significant restrictions on immigration (particularly focused on Africa and Asia).

But by far the most difficult of those was the economy, an issue which was perceived as having had an abysmal performance. While Hogg and Thorneycroft had prevented devolution of the pound and halted inflation, the Callaghan government soon was faced with having to raise spending to fund their election pledges, combined to a rapidly rising trade deficit. Unwilling to accept devolution, Callaghan and Wilson held a famously bitter relationship over how to solve the economic dilemma, with Callaghan often pressing Wilson (with Brown's support) to cut public spending and adopt a more austerity based programme to prevent devolution. But ultimately the struggle between Chancellor and Prime Minister led into disaster by late 1966, where the Government was left with little option but to finally devaluate the pound. Wilson resigned in protest as his career went down in flames, replaced by Tony Crosland as devaluation not only failed to revive the economy, but led to a shock rise in inflation and unemployment. The UK was headed to an economic crisis.

It was on this backdrop that the Opposition began to bounce back during 1966 and 1967, still led by Jo Grimond (convinced by his party to stay on) and Quintin Hogg (who still held the loyalty of the Tories) and winning several by-elections that weakened the Government's standing. Despite "Sunny Jim" being personally popular across the country (even when compared to the other two leaders), the Labour Party as a whole appeared tainted by the increasing economic woes. After losing their majority on the House of Commons after a by-election in April 1967, Callaghan decided he'd had enough. Rather than allow Hogg and Grimond to call a Vote of No Confidence - as Grimond had ruled out a potential pact with Labour due to disagreements on social policy -, Callaghan shocked the nation by calling a snap election.

[Lumine]

July 1967 General Election:

July 1967 - Amidst fears of nuclear war Callaghan wins a shock landslide

Labour Party: 42% (366 MP's)
Conservative Party: 26% (183 MP's)
Liberal Party: 30% (75 MP's)
Others: 2% (6 MP's)

Possibly the most shock result in British politics for an entire General Election, the 1967 campaign was one that soon went out of control for most parties due to events impossible to forsee. A campaign that had started in the traditional way showed Labour in a dead heat with the Conservatives, the rising Liberals hovering above 25%. Despite the negative consequences of devaluation Labour had increasing fighting spirit inside them, and with a badly planned Conservative effort pitted against an effective Liberal campaign many observers began to wonder whether Hogg would be able to turn things around as swing voters returned to Callaghan in greater numbers than those who defected to the Liberals due to Labour's social conservatism.

What made for such a dramatic turn around in the polls was attributed to two different men: British architect John Poulson and Soviet General Secretary Alexander Shelepin. John Poulson was relatively successful architect who was the subject of a shocking discovery by the press in the third week of the election: Poulson had bribed several political figures to obtain lucrative contracts. The chain ran all the way to Tory Shadow Home Secretary (and Party Chairman) Reginald Maudling, one of the key leaders of the Conservative campaign. While not personally implicated, his close business association with Poulson forced Maudling to step down from his role amidst widespread criticism, sinking the Tory efforts into disarray as Hogg saw his party go down in the polls.

General Secretary Shelepin (a key part in the ousting of Khruschev in 1965), on the other hand, was an even more unpredictable factor on the race. With his efforts to consolidate power in the Soviet Union facing large resistance from several key party members Shelepin (an arch-conservative and a Stalinist) had decided to raise his standing and his popular support by provoking US President Kennedy in test of will much like the events of Cuba in 1962, with Shelepin massively turning up the pressure both in Vietnam (indirectly) and Berlin (directly). The resulting standoff soon went out of hand, leading to the serious possibility of nuclear war over the situation in Berlin. Amidst fears of nuclear war it was Callaghan who had emerged as the statesmanlike figure with his cautious foreign policy, and the deeply damaged Hogg received his crippling blow when his enthusiasm and ill mood at the turn of the campaign made him seem excessively hawkish in the leader debates.

With the economy facing a slight uptick due to the work of Chancellor Tony Crosland, when the public went to the polls they delivered a massive, if distrusting endorsement of Callaghan as the best (or least negative) choice to turn the economy around and prevent WWIII in Britain. Labour lost votes to the Liberals but held onto 42% of the vote, compared to a shock 30% by Jo Grimond (highest Liberal performance in forty years) and the stunning 26% for the Tories, an unprecedented fall from grace. Alas, despite the poor results the Conservatives still counted on several seats saved by the loss of Labour voters to the Liberal Party and the Unionists in Northern Ireland still firmly taking the Conservative whip, allowing them to score better in MP's than in the 1906 disaster.

James Callaghan returned to Downing Street with an increased majority, but with economic strife and a foreign policy crisis in full force. Could he overcome the challenges ahead yet again?

[Barnes]

Looks like the vaunted Liberal revival is well and truly underway! This is great work, and great fun, Lumine!

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Process, 1967:

Enoch Powell, the new face of Conservatism

Quintin Hogg's resignation in the middle of a deep crisis in the Conservative Party to an unusual contest. With a large number of prospective and experienced candidates out of parliament and the proposed scheme to make Selwyn Lloyd "Acting Leader" collapsing after Lloyd's own insistence of "moving to the next generation", the party looked to two younger and credible former ministers as the possible leaders as Conference season began: Shadow Home Secretary Iain Macleod, champion of the Tory left and a firm believer in the need for the Conservatives to move to the center and modernize; and Shadow Foreign Secretary Enoch Powell, the unorthodox champion of the resurgent Tory right, determined to reform the party into a more viable and populist force.

If Macleod rallied the Shadow Cabinet and a sizable number of MP's Powell had the constituency associations and a similarly large group of MP's behind him (with Airey Neave as a particularly efficient campaign manager). It was evident therefore that the leadership would come to their performance at the conference speeches, and both men, brilliant orators prepared to go all-out on the hunt. Macleod went first, rallying his supporters to the cry of a more modern Britain and acting (as some put it) as the "conscience" of the party. Momentum behind him it was then that Powell had gone and delivered a speech that was seen just as brilliant as Hogg's performance in 1963. Avoiding a potential landmine by softening some of his classical references, the so called "Empire" speech sought to address the new nature of Britain in a post-imperial world, taking a strong stance against mass immigrations and the EEC.

Powell had lit the conference on fire, and seemingly struck a chord with a large part of the electorate as well. Soon it became clear that a strong majority supported Powell as the man to radically reform the party and return it to power, and eventually the conference acclaimed Powell as the next Conservative Party leader. Still, his once strong friendship to Iain Macleod had been broken by Powell's rhetoric, leading Macleod and many of the One Nation Tories to refuse serving on the Shadow Cabinet. In response Powell promoted the most promising young figures of the right, and prepared to take the fight to Labour and James Callaghan:

Conservative Leader: Enoch Powell
Deputy Conservative Leader: Geoffrey Rippon
Shadow Chancellor: Keith Joseph
Shadow Home Secretary: Airey Neave
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Edward DuCann

But was Powell capable of bringing Labour down after such a landslide?

[Lumine]

Liberal Leadership Election, 1968:

Lubbock promises to turn the Liberals into one of the two main parties

Sole Ballot:

Eric Lubbock: 34
Jeremy Thorpe: 31
Donald Wade: 10

After twelve long years of leading the Liberal Party Jo Grimond had become exhausted. He had brought a party to the brink of collapse back as one of the main political forces in Britain, with an historic 30% of the vote in the 1967 General Election (but only 75 MP's), bu the time had come to step down. Three candidates ran to succeed him, the newer intake of MP's refraining from entering the contest due to their lack of experience: Jeremy Thorpe, Eric Lubbock and Donald Wade. Opposed to an older and more experienced Wade, both Thorpe and Lubbock represented the much younger and new generation of the Liberal Party, determined to take it into a new direction to secure the breakthrough that could make them the Opposition, or, as some dreamt of it, the new Government.

Soon it became clear Wade was too old, if supported by an important group of MP's due to his stellar work as Liberal whip. Thorpe and Lubbock became the main candidates, Lubbock offering a firm turn towards the center-left in support of Grimond's legacy and Thrope promoting a more decentralized leadership, more focused on local issues than ideology. In the end it was Lubbock who made more progress among the new MPs, besting Thorpe in the first and ultimately final round. Despite many expecting that both men would face each other on a second round, it became clear most of the Wade supporters would cross to Lubbock, leading Thorpe to make the pragmatic choice and withdraw in return for the Deputy Leadership.

A new Liberal team was in place.

[Lumine]

The Callaghan II Ministry (1967-1972)

Callaghan fights on, from crisis to crisis

Prime Minister: James Callaghan
Deputy Prime Minister: George Brown
Foreign Secretary: Patrick Gordon-Walker, then Denis Healey
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Anthony Crosland
Home Secretary: Bob Mellish, then Shirley Williams

Note: Callaghan drew utterly horrible numbers in domestic and foreign policy. I’ve tried to make it realistic up to a point despite the bad numbers, but… be prepared.

Fresh from an unexpected landslide against the backdrop of the devaluation of the pound due to Tory woes and the concerning escalation of the Tory crisis, Callaghan faced the dilemma of having to address mounting crisis, but with the advantage of a large majority to soldier on and make tough decisions. The resulting five years of a large Labour majority would be among the most controversial and divisive of the following years, even if they did not seem so at the start. Indeed, Callaghan returned to Downing Street with the opposition divided, and through last minute negotiations between Shelepin and Kennedy the threat of war over Berlin was averted a few days after the election.

Callaghan was therefore able to spend most of 1967 and 1968 focusing back on the economy, and despite widespread criticism from the left to his tough policies on spending Chancellor Anthony Crosland was able to secure a rebound from devaluation by finally halting the rise of inflation. Indeed, for the whole parliament and through 1972 Callaghan and Crosland (turned into a highly cohesive and effect duo) were able to preside over a slow but still certain recovery, slowly driving back inflation and lowering unemployment to more acceptable levels. The crisis was short-lived, but the consequences of the prolonged recovery meant that the Labour government had few means to increase spending at all, which would negatively affect later decisions on domestic policy. It also meant that Callaghan was forced into ever closer cooperation with Presidents Kennedy and Connally to ensure that the recovery was not jeopardized, with a key consequence over the later decisions made by his government.

Having spent several months in economic efforts and after seemingly passing over the worst of the crisis the time came for Callaghan to make a decision over the controversial war in Vietnam. Kennedy’s escalation had resulted in an unprecedented effort to defend South Vietnam from Communist, an unpopular war which ruined Kennedy’s reputation and almost cost John Connally the Presidency in 1968. Forced into rapprochement with the US, Callaghan and Foreign Secretary Gordon-Walker were put into a corner by Kennedy and Connally, and what had become a limited group of advisors with logistical support in late 1968 turned into a military contingent in 1969. The result was explosive. Protests erupted across Britain as the move proved unpopular, the anti-war left taking the streets to protest “Callaghan’s War”.  Matters were made worse when escalation between Turkey and Greece led to the bitter and bloody Cyprus War, in which British-led intervention against the Greek Junta turned into a debacle and a projected war (necessitating NATO intervention afterwards). Gordon-Walker fell on his sword due to the fallout, leaving new Foreign Secretary Denis Healey to attempt to stabilize the situation.

If events in Vietnam and Cyprus had already weakened the Government, the situation was worsened due to developing crises in the domestic front. Despite Callaghan’s success to reform industrial relations to strengthen the power of the unions and his continued commitment to further reforms on housing, education and the NHS those successes failed to consolidate due to the tight austerity policies of Crosland. Mellish carried on with his usual bravado, continuing to block backbench revolts and proposals on social liberalization while promoting his landmark Immigration Acts of 1968, restricting immigration from Asia and Africa to broad support from the working-class voters despite rising racial tensions. But as if the foreign policy issues weren’t enough to face, the contained tension in Northern Ireland was to explode in 1970 with full-scale violence. Callaghan and Mellish reacted strongly by deploying the army, and when this led into further violence, to suspend Stormont amongst cries of betrayal from the Unionists in the province. The resulting violence, clashes and even terrorist attacks from “The Troubles” even forced Mellish to stand down after British troops fired on a group of protestors, leading to his replacement with Shirley Williams.

Unable to call an early election due to the combined fallout of Vietnam, Cyprus and Northern Ireland Callaghan refused to quit despite talk of a leadership challenge, soldiering on to serve the whole term in hopes of a better situation by 1972. Indeed, there was expectation that left-wing firebrand Eric Heffer would challenge Callaghan as a stalking horse of sorts, but Heffer’s sacking pre-empted said challenger (ironically leaving Heffer as a new favourite of the Labour left). While Labour has faced relief in a lack of significant scandals through the Parliament and the presence of a large majority despite noteworthy revolts over foreign policy and social liberalization, the sense of crisis that has been developing over Britain has damaged Labour and Callaghan himself, driving their approval ratings down. A similar state of matters has emerged due to the Conservative divisions under Powell and the apparent lack of effectiveness from the Liberals under Lubbock, leading many to question if Labour will truly be dislodged from Government despite the prevalent sense of a crisis.

It was thus that Callaghan fought his way to 1972, when the time for another election had come. Amidst protests over the ongoing wars in Cyprus and Vietnam, terrorism and civil strife in Northern Ireland and an economy on its way to full (but painful) recovery and with the Opposition just as divided as the Government, Callaghan went to the polls again.

[Lumine]

May 1972 General Election:

May 1972 - Lubbock wins the popular vote... and deadlocks Parliament

Conservative Party: 31.0% (211 MP's)
Labour Party: 27.0% (169 MP's)
Liberal Party: 33.5% (144 MP's)
Scottish National Party: 4.7% (65 MP's)
Plaid Cymru : 2.8% (37 MP's)
Others: 1.0% (4 MP's)

Facing such unprecedented levels of strife over the ongoing foreign policy and domestic crisis, the campaign started on a difficult note for Labour. Their support having dropped to over 30% or so, it appeared to be a clear three-way battle between the renergized Conservatives and the determined Liberals. The first weeks of the campaign were marked by the sole leader's debate (as the leaders couldn't agree on more debates), which saw a breakout performance from Liberal Leader Eric Lubbock and a polling surge which was as dramatic as anything seen in the past elections. Shooting upwards of 40 to 50% it was believed for a few days that a Liberal landslide was on the making, and that Mr. Lubbock could easily find himself leader of a majority government.

Sensing danger both parties resolved to take the fight to the Liberals, and the first (and most successful) in doing so was Enoch Powell. Determined to make the Conservatives the alternative to a Labour government he began a rallying tour of sorts, hoping to win working class support for his law and order platform. Powell was certainly successful in bringing new voters into the Tory camp, even as moderate or centrist voters left to support the Liberals. Little by little Powell's rallying against uncontrolled immigration began to curb the Liberal lead in the polls, and Callaghan jumped back in a desperate attempt to revive his campaigns. To his merit, Callaghan still had significant charisma and political skill to deploy, bringing Labour back from the brink of 20% back to closing on 30%.

Of course, what the three main parties were powerless to do was to stop the other main story of the campaign: the rise of local nationalism. That Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party were on the rise was evident enough due to their by-election successes, but both parties ran brilliant and well-funded campaigns (due to the rise of support in Wales and Scotland) that soon exploited the Conservative, Liberal and Labour division to full extent. To the rallying cry of standing for Wales and Scotland in the middle of the crisis thousands upon thousands of voters disappointed in the three main parties answered the call, to dramatic effects.

It was clear on Election Night that the Liberals had won the popular vote, followed closely by Powell's Conservatives and further back by Callaghan's Labour on 27%. The Liberals made spectacular gains in their much awaited breakthough, which to their disappointment only translated on 144 seats due to electoral disadvantages. Powell made substantial gains despite the humiliation of losing Shadow Home Secretary Airey Neave to the Liberals. The SNP and Plaid Cymru staged a wipeout of the main parties across Wales and Scotland, winning close to 50% in each region and capturing 102 in total.

The Labour Party braced for a horrible night, losing more than 200 MP's (more than half the Labour Parliamentary Party). Seat after seat most of the cabinet fell, from the mid-ranking members like Barbara Castle and Michael Foot to most of the inner cabinet, with Chancellor Tony Crosland, Home Secretary Shirley Williams and Deputy Prime Minister George Brown all falling (Foreign Secretary Denis Healey being a noteworthy survivor). To make matters worse, history was made when a Plaid Cymru challenger defeated Prime Minister James Callaghan, unseating the Labour leader in a historic TV moment (leading Tories and Liberals to ask the next day: "Where you up for Sunny Jim?").

Euphoria from the parties who had made gains soon turned into chaos after all the seats were counted, where the party leaders and the Queen realized in horror that the resulting Hung Parliament was next to unworkable in terms of forming a government. What followed was one of the most dramatic months in British political history.

[Lumine]

Birth of the National Government (May-June 1972)

July 1972 - With the Queen's support, Supermac is back

The results of the May 1972 Elections were an absolute nightmare.

Labour had lost half their MP's and their Prime Minister, yet faced the odd situation of remaining in government until an alternative one was found. Soon as it became clear that only an unprecedented effort would result in a viable government the Queen was forced to replace Callaghan, and with a large part of the cabinet it fell to the most senior minister to take up the job, thus turning Foreign Secretary Denis Healey into the odd position of "Acting Prime Minister" with only a quarter of the House behind him.

While Enoch Powell had won a plurality in seats, his hopes of becoming Prime Minister soon became hopeless after the first few days. His staunch opposition to devolution made talks with Plaid Cymru and the Scottish Nationalists impossible, and while Eric Lubbock could find agreement with Powell on withdrawing from Vietnam and installing some degree of social liberalization, he was under no circumstances willing to prop Powell without electoral reform, which the Conservative Party would not grant. With Lubbock also delivering a firm "No" to supporting the Labour Party after their election collapse, Powell and Healey could be discounted.

It was therefore the turn of Lubbock himself to try and form a government, remembering the 1923-1924 situation which allowed Labour to govern. Despite coming third in seats, his victory at the popular vote gave him justification to make the attempt, and to his credit he displayed immense activity. Soon he added Plaid Cymru's support in return for Welsh Home Rule, and tense negotiations with the Scottish National Party (some of its members widely rumored to be considering a move as drastic as unilateral independence) finally yielded an extensive devolution settlement for Scotland. Lubbock was seen on the verge of success when he scored a major coup inside Labour, as Education Secretary Roy Jenkins and a few of his fellow anti-Callaghanite rebels announced they could support a Liberal-led government.

It was so that by the last week of May Eric Lubbock presented a Queen's Speech of his own, a Liberal minority government propped with Supply and Confidence from Plaid, the SNP, and a few Labour rebels. Enoch Powell was incensed at the idea of allowing the Welsh and Scottish Nationalists control any UK government, and took a firm stance to vote down the Queen's Speech. Soon it became evident the matter was on Healey and particularly Callaghan's (still Labour leader) hands. And Labour would not accept the idea of the Liberal Party replacing it as the main party of the left, whipping a No vote. Despite Jenkins's revolt, the Queen's Speech collapsed by a few dozen votes.

After weeks without government and protests taking place across the country the situation was seen as desperate. It soon became clear from the Palace that intervention would be needed, and due to the intervention of several high-profile politicians (starting with former Prime Minister Harold Macmillan) it became clear the only road available other than a second election (and further risk of the political crisis going worse) was to form a National Government. While Plaid and the SNP soon ruled it out, Lubbock and the Liberals offered their tentative support, and so did Powell should some conditions be met. A frantic search for a unity PM of sorts began (as none of the party leaders and their frontbenchers were seen as suitable), and the list was narrowed to four candidates. Former Labour frontbencher Lord Robens, the Earl Mountbatten, Rab Butler and Macmillan.

Soon Mountbatten ruled himself out, his appointment looking difficult to consolidate Liberal support. Robens was discarded as well at Enoch Powell's insistence, whose votes were crucial for a government to be formed. Butler was considered as unsuitable after it became clear his health was in steep decline. All that was left was Macmillan, who could count on the tentative (if unenthusiastic) support of Powell, Lubbock and some Labour rebels. With Callaghan and Healey ruling out participation on the National Government after internal pressure from the Parliamentary Party, Roy Jenkins and his Labour rebels crossed the floor and announced they would support a Macmillan-led government. Macmillan himself was ecstatic about returning to the frontlines despite his advanced age (78 years old), and the Queen finally gave her blessing to such an odd state of affairs, granting Macmillan a peerage so he could govern from the Lords.

At the end of June 1972 a Queen's Speech was passed with the votes of the Liberals, the Conservatives and "National Labour" (Jenkins's rebels), and Harold Macmillan became Prime Minister of a new National Government.

[Lumine]

Labour Leadership Election, 1972:

Peter Shore sails to an unexpected victory

First Ballot:

Peter Shore: 29.4%
Harold Wilson: 26.5%
Eric Heffer: 23.5%
Roy Mason: 11.8%
Denis Healey: 8.8%

Final Ballot:

Peter Shore: 50.1%
Harold Wilson: 49.9%

Despite the crushing electoral defeat at the June Election, former Prime Minister James Callaghan was determined to stay onto the next year, working as hard as ever to ensure a fellow surviving Callaghanite would be in place to succeed him. His plans were undone by his formidable and persistent foe Harold Wilson (once sacked by Callaghan when he was Chancellor), who in a skillful move secure a vote of no confidence against Callaghan with support from the left and the right which the damaged leader lost resoundingly. Forced to step down in October Wilson geared to launch his own campaign, with Roy Mason and Denis Healey challenging from the right, Eric Heffer from the hard-left, and Peter Shore from a less clear position (combining postures from both wings).

The first round was an all-out battle for the contenders to show their strength, although it soon became clear the Callaghanites had been surprised with an election too early for them to recover. Healey's chances became undone quickly due to his behavior and his famous boast to Labour right MP's that "you have nowhere else to go", and Mason, while attractive to many, was just too tied to Callaghan to truly score a strong result. The right divided, the main battle was fought between Wilson, the hardline left insurgence of Eric Heffer and, surprisingly, Peter Shore, who had managed to break out from the pact as a strident anti-Europe interventionist. Heffer was cut short due to the lack of support among MP's, narrowly leaving Wilson and Shore to fight it out.

For the final round Healey and Mason decided to endorse the new challenger, with Heffer angrily stating that a choice between both men was futile. It was a historic fight all the way to the last vote, which ended up decided in Shore's favor due to the deep wounds left by Wilson after his political assassination of Callaghan. A prominent Wilsonite was thought to have said "whoever wields the knife, never wields the crown..." as the younger, less known Shore ascended as the next leader of a divided Labour Party. Wilson managed to get elected Deputy Leader as a consolation prize, and the resulting Shadow Cabinet hoped to combine talents from both the Labour right and left:

Labour Leader: Peter Shore
Deputy Labour Leader: Harold Wilson
Shadow Chancellor: Roy Mason
Shadow Home Secretary: Tony Benn
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Eric Varley

And the party wondered, could Shore successfully take on the National Government?

[Lumine]

The National Government (1972-1975)

Robens and Macmillan fight the turbulent seventies

Prime Minister: Harold Macmillan, then Alfred Robens
Deputy Prime Minister: Eric Lubbock
Foreign Secretary: Enoch Powell
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Roy Jenkins
Home Secretary: Jeremy Thorpe, then Jo Grimond

Harold Macmillan returned to Downing Street nine years after his departure amidst a stunned nation, tired of the sense of malaise and crisis engulfing Britain yet finding it hard to get used to the idea of a Lord (as Macmillan was created Earl of Stockton at taking office) leading a “National Government” of wildly different parties and characters. Owing to the need for a balanced administration the cabinet was formed with members of the Conservatives, the Liberals, National Labour and independents such as Lord Robens and Lord Shawcross, meaning Lubbock and Thorpe became Deputy Prime Minister and Home Secretary, Powell became Foreign Secretary, and Roy Jenkins was entrusted with the Treasury. The next two and a half years would prove most eventful.

Easily one of the most controversial areas for the National Government was epitomized by two large scandals: the Macmillan and the Thorpe affairs. Despite his enthusiasm at returning into government and his success at forcing multi-party consensus it was clear Harold Macmillan no longer had the energy or the health for the job, leading to Macmillan trying to hide his worsening state of health through late 1972 and early 1973. Reports from the press on his ill-health would prove most controversial, forcing Powell and Lubbock to request Macmillan to stand down. With the Tories refusing to allow Lubbock to take office as Deputy PM attention shifted to Lord Robens, who had performed admirably as President of the Board of Trade. Energetic, charismatic and having coveted the office for years, Robens leapt at the opportunity and promptly took office, seemingly solving the crisis with his pledge to “run the country as a huge corporation”. Worse still was the debilitating and controversial Thorpe affair, in which Home Secretary Jeremy Thorpe’s turbulent private life was exposed to the press, leading to his resignation and a huge blow to the Liberals.

Due to the prevalent “consensus” beliefs of Macmillan and Robens Powell was forced to yield on his radical economic monetarism, the Treasury forming a joint team with Chancellor Roy Jenkins and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Keith Joseph that pursued an innovative approach. Initially stabilizing the recovery in 1972-1973 through tight fiscal policy, the odd combination of fiscal responsibility and targeted stimulus allowed Jenkins and Joseph to achieve the unthinkable, reaching fiscal surplus and presiding over a large-scale boom across 1974 as Britain finally began to exploit North Sea oil in a manner that shielded it from the first signs of trouble launched by OPEC under threats of oil embargoes. Aided by decreasing inflation and low rates of unemployment, Britain seemed on the road to economic prosperity by the end of 1974.

The National Government struck similar success on the foreign front, even as crucial disagreements over a particular issue threatened to split the arrangements. As Foreign Secretary Enoch Powell presided over an immediate withdrawal of Vietnam to widespread support across the UK, drawing the ire of US President Connally (it is believed this was a factor on him losing re-election to Senator Mathias). Having agreed to bring the Cyprus War to an end Powell refocused military resources into the Mediterranean and brought new allies into the conflict, the Royal Navy smashing the Greek forces in Cyprus and Crete and then successfully landing in Athens as the Greek Junta collapsed, restoring a democratic government in Greece. Against these successes the National Government faced significant trouble over Europe, with Robens and Lubbock pressing for another application into the EEC but being blocked by Powell, who threatened to leave the government over the issue.

It was on the domestic front that things seemingly fell apart. Despite their accomplishments on the foreign stage and in economic policy the Liberals, Conservatives and National Labourites all had stark differences on how to restore law and order and how to conduct domestic policy, a division that was turned into chaos by the disruption of the Home Office due to the Thorpe affair that not even Jo Grimond could fix. Attempts to reform industrial legislation, to start a peace process in Northern Ireland, to amend several Callaghanite proposals and so on all faced either a lack of parliamentary support, negative results or turned out to be unpopular, with the one exception being decriminalization of homosexuality in 1973. Against Powell’s ongoing pressure for hard-line policies on crime and Unionist support in Northern Ireland Lubbock and Jenkins often pressed for moderation, leading to a significantly muddled message. As a result, the IRA escalated its bombing campaign across Britain, and matters were complicated still by the growth of radicalized pro-Scottish independence groups, who threatened unilateral independence.

Despite the ongoing popularity of government figures like Jenkins, Powell, Lubbock, Whitelaw and Steel the National Government was often considered as unpopular on polling, at the start due to Macmillan being seen as outdated and out of touch, and as the months went on due to the lack of control over national security and domestic policy matters. Still, their large majority aside the Government was aided by the deep divisions inside the opposition parties. Despite Plaid Cymru performing effectively, the Scottish National Party erupted in internal strife over independence policy, with a growing radical wing pressing for unilateral independence. Worse still was the civil war that continued to break havoc in the Labour Party after Shore’s election as party leader. Forced to placate the Callaghanites, Shore opened himself up to further defections to National Labour.

By the end of 1974 and despite the economic boom the Conservatives and the Liberals continued to be divided over government policy, and Enoch Powell and Eric Lubbock both decided it was time for each party to try and win a majority on its own. Parliament was dissolved in December 1974, and elections scheduled for January 1975.

[Lumine]

January 1975 General Election:

January 1975 - Another Hung Parliament... with Labour in a comeback

Labour Party: 30.7% (242 MP's)
Conservative Party: 28.0% (203 MP's)
Liberal Party: 28.0% (87 MP's)
Scottish National Party: 4.2% (60 MP's)
Plaid Cymru : 2.4% (31 MP's)
National Labour : 5.4% (10 MP's)
Others: 1.3% (2 MP's)

All too divided because of differences over domestic policy the National Government parties scrambled to field their own campaigns, facing a seemingly resurgent Labour Party under Shore which had been able to prepare efficiently for the campaign, if still hampered by large-scale infighting inside the party over factional battles. The campaign therefore began with Labour slowly climbing back to 30%, matched with the Conservatives and the Liberals in a close fight over first place as the main parties did their best to defeat the SNP and Plaid in Scotland and Wales to secure their own majority. Despite predictions of another hung parliament, none of the three leaders was prepared to rule out governing on their own.

It was believed by many to have been a less than inspiring campaign, with the leaders failing to agree on debates - mostly due to whether to include the SNP, Plaid and National Labour - and many seeing the campaigns as lacking clear messages, despite the field organization by Labour activists proving decent. It soon became clear that the unpopularity of the National Government was affecting both Powell and Lubbock, with the state of the economy failing to secure them votes as opposed to the drawback that was the brief Macmillan premiership for the Tories and the sordid Thorpe scandal for the Liberals, which was constantly revived on the press. In contrast Shore fought a less flawed campaign, staying on message.

Election Night proved tense, and an alltogether disappointing experience to virtually all parties. The Conservatives lost a substantial amount of votes, but managed to limit their seat losses to a few. The Liberals had a rude awakening to the extent the Thorpe affair and some decisions during the National Government had affected their standing, dropping back to third place in the popular vote and suffering the lost of almost half their MP's due to FPTP. National Labour had survived and returned most of their MP's, yet had failed to expand across the nation. Plaid and the SNP managed to hold on to their electoral bastions, yet also faced a few losses of their own as some of their seats went back to Labour. And Shore, while reviving the Labour Party had made limited gains on the popular vote, and despite the surge in MP's to the detriment of the Liberals was almost eighty seats short of a majority.

With Lubbock ruling out a coalition with Labour and a National Government being out of the question with Shore refusing to back one, Labour was forced to hold talks with Plaid and the SNP. Soon an unstable supply and confidence deal was reached, and Shore formed a minority government, expecting elections to come again before the year was over.

[Lumine]

The Shore Ministry (1975-1978)

Shore manages to push domestic reform, but the crisis deepens

Prime Minister: Peter Shore
Deputy Prime Minister: Harold Wilson
Foreign Secretary: Eric Varley, then Denis Healey
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Tony Benn
Home Secretary: Roy Mason

Having fought his way into a plurality inside Parliament, Peter Shore managed to form a minority government after controversially securing the support of the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru, fully expecting to carry on for a few months before a snap election to secure a majority of his own. That the resulting Labour minority government carried on for three years before being brought down by a Vote of No Confidence made for an exciting, if troubled Government.

The major and early triumph of the Shore Ministry was its push for devolution, delivering a referendum on a Scottish and Welsh Assembly in return for the SNP/Plaid support which resulted in a strong victory after a well-fought campaign, leading any to proudly claim that devolution would end any talk of independence. Despite serious misgivings inside the party, the success in both referendums had forged a positive working relationship with Plaid and the SNP, and after seeing polls to be less than encouraging in late 1975 Shore made the shocking decision to attempt to carry on with the present arrangement, hoping to win time to enact his legislative programme and prepare a strong base of support to win an outright victory at the next election. Yet despite the lack of scandals and the relatively strong support he enjoyed from the Labour backbench, the next three years would prove tiresome indeed.

By far the biggest accomplishments of the new Labour government would be found on domestic matters. Shore made good on his promise to lead on public service reform and in inner city renewal, sponsoring a large-scale housing programme, support for decaying or depressed areas of the country, and making efforts to expand social benefits. Despite significant criticism from the left of his party, Shore continued the Callaghanite tendencies towards social policy, refusing to scale down existing (and harsh) legislation on immigration controls and refusing to support "social liberal policies" beyond turning a blind eye to a bill making divorce easier. Far more controversial was his handling of Northern Ireland, sponsoring a peace-process while taking a unionist stance which secured an early ceasefire until 1977, only to be broken by Mason's tough line on the IRA and the resulting bombing campaign the group started again.

Foreign Policy was, in comparison, widely considered a disappointment. While Shore's steadfast opposition to Europe and the EEC was popular inside his party, his support for nuclear weapons and NATO was not, leading Shore and Varley to attempt to compromise by scaling back on the nuclear deterrent in a manner which worsened an already bad relationship to the US (it was said that under Prime Minister Shore and President Mathias the Special Relationship was agonizing). Shore's Unionist stance also brought him into direct conflict with the Republic of Ireland, which redoubled its criticism of the UK policy towards the region in 1977-1978 to increasingly hostile levels. And what truly damaged Labour's image was the successful but uncovered assassination of Idi Amin in Uganda by MI6, leading to a civil war in the region and the replacement of Foreign Secretary Eric Varley with former Prime Minister Denis Healey.

Still, despite clouds in the horizon it was believed Shore would call an election on 1976 instead, aided by more positive polling. That he was unable to do so was because of the terrible economic news that followed. Determined to radically reform the British economy, Shore and his Chancellor Tony Benn had decided to shift the British economy into autarky as a response to the growing recession across the world due to the oil crisis, in the belief that Britain would therefore weather out the crisis. And while initially successful by early 1976, the strategy soon came undone. Interventionist measures failed to improve the national industries and even saw their output dramatically decline, whereas price and wages controls led to strife with the unions and to businesses starting to leave the UK. Soon inflation made its dramatic reappearance as foreign currency reserves began to disappear, and by 1977 the UK was now part of the world-wide recession, leading to increasing calls for Shore to make a u-turn before the crisis turned for the worse.

Having counted on the SNP and Plaid for survival, Shore found the SNP having grown in ambition after scoring an excellent result at the first Scottish Assembly Election. SNP Leader William Wolfe began demanding more and more concessions of Shore, who was forced into a painful process of negotiations for virtually all key government votes. And by early 1978 and finding Labour to be  appropriately weak, Wolfe decided to demand an independence referendum in exchange for allowing Labour to stay in office until 1980. Shore and the Labour Party rejected his demands, and Powell and Lubbock called for a Vote of No Confidence which the SNP supported.

Much like in 1967, Labour was going to the polls in the middle of a recession (and one far worse than ten years ago). Would it survive and achieve another miracle?

[Lumine]

March 1978 General Election:

March 1978 - After ten years of struggles, Enoch Powell becomes Prime Minister

Conservative Party: 35.4% (323 MP's)
Liberal Party: 34.4% (149 MP's)
Labour Party: 24.5% (122 MP's)
Scottish National Party: 2.8% (24 MP's)
Plaid Cymru : 1.6% (14 MP's)
Others: 1.3% (3 MP's)

The political situation looked grim after the defeat in the Vote of No Confidence, Labour down in the polls at around 28% against the Conservatives and the Liberals at around 30%. If Shore was in the fight of his life so were Lubbock and Powell, both of whom knew it was their last chance to make the impact they needed. The first weeks of the campaign proved fierce already, with Shore deploying immense energy and a renewed populist appeal to try and mitigate the damage posed by the recession, and for the first few days it appeared to be working, the Liberals still facing some residual fallout over the Thorpe scandal and the Conservatives facing internal strife due to the concerns of the Tory left towards Powell.

The "game changer" of sorts was widely believed to have been the Stonehouse affair, thought to have ruined Shore's chances as he inched towards 30%. Having been a successful cabinet minister under Callaghan, Labour MP John Stonehouse had mysteriously retired from the frontbench after 1972, the media clueless as to the reasons. Over the campaign Stonehouse was the protagonist of a bizarre scandal in which he staged his own disappearance, only to be found trying to fly to Australia amidst rumours leaking from the intelligence apparatus that Stonehouse was a spy of sorts. While never proven - Stonehouse was tried for his false disappearance and sent into a quiet, silent retirement - the claims erased Shore's gains, and sent Labour down to 20%.

With their main foe down it fell to Powell and Lubbock to fight each other for the right to form the next government, and both men fought well. Powell was able to exploit working class concerns regarding Labour to expand his voting base - including limited union support -, whereas the support of Roy Jenkins allowed for many voters to defect to the Liberals as the progressive party of their choice. The debates proved interesting as well, with Powell and Lubbock widely believed to have reached a tie with Shore in a poor third. Another overlooked factor was the situation in Scotland and Wales, with a wave of backlash hitting at the SNP for their support of the Vote of No Confidence (leading to their unfair labeling of "Tartan Tories") and backlash towards Plaid over an efficient administration from Cardiff, filled with scandals.

At a historic election night surpassing 1972 in drama the Labour Party marched into a disastrous 25% of the vote, returning a mere 122 seats and becoming the third party for the first time in over six decades. Whereas most of the frontbench survived, some key figures such as Trade Secretary John Smith and Chancellor Tony Benn lost their seats. Lubbock led the Liberal Party to an even better result than in 1972, recovering from past losses and achieving the seemingly impossible dream of becoming the Opposition. Alas, FPTP continued to harm the Liberals in a disproportionate way, which combined with the loss of a third of the SNP and Plaid vote (leading to the loss of over half their seats) to provide the Tories with an unexpected boost.

The next morning a surprised Britain watched Enoch Powell making his first speech from Downing Street, having achieved a majority of five, the Tory majority since 1959.

[Lumine]

Liberal Leadership Election, 1980:

The Liberals gear up as the new Opposition

Sole Ballot:

Michael Steed: 81
David Steel: 34
John Pardoe: 20
David Penhaligon: 14

Eric Lubbock had taken on the job of becoming Liberal Leader after the highly successful tenure of Jo Grimond, the Liberal Party in sincere hopes of becoming the Opposition and, as some dreamt, the Government. Under his tenure the Liberals had consistently bested either Labour or the Conservatives in votes only to fall short to the shortcomings of FPTP, but they had both been a key part of the National Government under Macmillan and Robens, and they had finally broken through the electoral system to become the Opposition in 1978. If they could see Labour off and then vanquish the Tories, many thought, the UK would finally have a Liberal PM. That Lubbock wouldn't be the one to lead the charge was due to his already unusually long twelve-year tenure leading the party (same as Grimond), and his desire to stand down.

Four members of his frontbench rose to succeed him: David Steel, David Penhaligon, John Pardoe and the little known Michael Steed, all of whom would battle to win over the support of the 149 Liberal MP's in Parliament. With the efforts of Penhaligon coming short (as he was seen as not ready) many believed the battle would come down to the heavyweight efforts of Steel and Pardoe, but it was Steed who upstaged them. Aided by the Young Liberals, supported by his scathing attacks on the Government in Parliament and inspiring the party to believe in a Liberal ideology (beyond just having Liberal causes), Steed took his passionate views for Europe and political reform to a landslide, winning over a majority with the support of the younger, less experienced Liberal MP's.

Hoping to create a united team, Steed then formed his Shadow Cabinet:

Liberal Leader: Michael Steed
Liberal Deputy Leader: David Steel
Shadow Chancellor: John Pardoe
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Roy Jenkins
Shadow Home Secretary: David Penhaligon

But could they form a Government?

[Lumine]

Labour Leadership Election, 1979:

Healey defeats the hard-left, but inherits a divided party

First Ballot Leader:

Eric Heffer: 48.1%
Denis Healey: 25.9%
Shirley Williams: 22.2%
John Silkin: 3.7%

First Ballot Deputy:

Joan Maynard: 44.4%
David Owen: 22.2%
Denzil Davies: 18.5%
Michael Meacher: 14.8%

Final Ballot Leader:

Denis Healey: 57.1%
Eric Heffer: 42.9%

Final Ballot Deputy:

David Owen: 52.6%
Joan Maynard: 47.4%

After a crushing defeat in the 1978 Election and pushed back to the third largest-party for the first time in decades the Labour Party was headed for a crisis far worse than what had taken place in 1972. Due to the scale of a defeat an immediate leadership election was ruled out, leaving Shore to lead the party all the way into 1979 as new contenders prepared to fight for the crown. The biggest surprise was the news that Deputy Leader Harold Wilson would not run (because of his failing health), leaving the succession wide open as the far left and the right of the Labour Party engaged in more and more hostile moves. From the right rose Denis Healey and the returning Shirley Williams, from the soft-left the little-known John Silkin, and from the hard-left their champion for the past decade, Eric Heffer.

The early contest was marked by the rise of the Labour left as opposed to the other factions, weakened by past defeats, infighting and the loss of several key MP's. Eric Heffer and her key ally Joan Maynard appeared to be taking the party by the storm towards hardline socialism, amidst the gloom and fear from the Callaghanites. By the time the first ballot was finished the results stunned the party, Heffer having been barely short of an outright majority and Maynard following him closely on the Deputy race, leaving Deputy contenders Owen, Davies and Meacher far behind. The surviving candidates to take on the rising hard-left would be former Prime Minister Denis Healey for the leadership and the young and ambitious David Owen for the Deputy Leadership, both seen as having low chances of victory.

What followed was the battle for the final round, one of the most bitter ones in living memory. Owen and Healey joined forces to combine the Labour old right and the Callaghanites, and ran a campaign attempting to draw attention to the "danger" (as they saw it) that a hardline leadership would bring to the party. Heffer and Maynard's efforts were seen as inadequate for the second round, taking victory for granted and allowing themselves to even lose voters to their challengers or to abstention. The final round was held under an unusually large number of abstentions, and the results proved a bitter shock to the hard-left: Healey had turned things around to best Heffer, and Owen had barely managed to overcome Maynard. Despite the pledge by Healey to "lead a united party into Government", the hard-left had had enough.