Why have FL and TX trended in opposite directions 8 prez elections in a row?

[mieastwick]

The last time both Florida and Texas trended toward the same party was toward the GOP in 1984. Why?

[PoliticalShelter]

Let's take a look at each election year:

1988: Texas trends dem thanks to Bentsen and the farm crisis, Florida trends gop because Dukakis fails to make gains the suburbs (particularly in the culturally northern ones which is what's flordia's predominantly are).

1992: FL trends dem thanks to Clinton making inroads in the burbs, TX trends gop because the end of the farm crisis counteracts the trend with traditional southern dems.

96: FL trends dem thanks to further gains in culturally northern suburbs. TX trends gop thanks to the general trend of southern rural whites trend away from dems.

2000: TX trends gop for obvious reasons. FL trends dem because gore is able to keep clinton's strength with retirees and the burbs.

04: TX trends dem because home state factor wears off. FL trends gop because bush's biggest gains in 04 were with retirees (gi gen dying off) and culturally northern burbs (9/11).

08: FL trends gop because the two groups that trended most away from dems were retirees and southern rural whites. TX trends dem because Obama biggest gains were with non Cuban Hispanics and urbanites/suburbnites which were disproponatly gop in TX plus dems had already collapsed with rural whites in TX in 2000 thanks to bush.

12: TX trends gop because southern urbanites/suburbnites are anxious with the high defcits. FL trends dem because Romney is a terrible fit for retirees and the growing non Cuban Latino pop in Florida.

16: TX trends away from the gop because trump is a terrible fit for the southern suburbnites in Texas (having more room to fall compared to culturally northern burbs in Florida). FL trends gop because trumps margins with retirees and rural whites counteracts any further collapse in burbs and with Latinos.

Sorry if this is too long.