In which state are the Democrats most likely to win?

[President Johnson]

In which of these states are the Democrats most likely to regain the governorship?

I would rank these 5 as follows:

1. New Mexico (~ 60% chance)
2. Florida (~ 50% chance)
3. Illinois (~ 50% chance)
4. Nevada (~ 40% chance)
5. Arizona (~ 30% chance)

Thoughts?

[MAINEiac4434]

New Mexico
Illinois
Nevada

Huge drop off

Florida
Arizona

[Figueira]

New Mexico
Illinois
Nevada
Florida
Arizona

[TheSaint250]

Ranked by Most Likely to Go Democrat:

1. New Mexico: Tossup
2. Illinois: Tossup
3. (Tie) Florida: Tossup
3. (Tie) Nevada: Tossup
4. Arizona: Safe R

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Democrats couldnt win Florida in 2006 I dont think they will win in 2018 unless the state Democratic party becomes a lot more competent .

[Pragmatic Conservative]

1. Illinois ( 63% chance)
2.New Mexico (57% chance)
3. Florida ( 54% chance)
4. Nevada ( 40% chance)
5. Arizona ( 33% chance)

[Virginiá]

If Democrats couldnt win Florida in 2006 I dont think they will win in 2018 unless the state Democratic party becomes a lot more competent .

The electorate has changed since then, even in midterms. It is less white, with the added bonus of FL Hispanics trending away from Republicans in recent years. If FL 2006 meant something, then FL 2010 & 2014 should as well. Democrats performed exceptionally well in the midst of 2 pro-Republican waves, and came very close each time to winning the Governor's office. If things remain that competitive under a Trump midterm, I imagine it would give them a pretty decent advantage.

[Shadows]

If Democrats couldnt win Florida in 2006 I dont think they will win in 2018 unless the state Democratic party becomes a lot more competent .

The electorate has changed since then, even in midterms. It is less white, with the added bonus of FL Hispanics trending away from Republicans in recent years. If FL 2006 meant something, then FL 2010 & 2014 should as well. Democrats performed exceptionally well in the midst of 2 pro-Republican waves, and came very close each time to winning the Governor's office. If things remain that competitive under a Trump midterm, I imagine it would give them a pretty decent advantage.

In general, saying hey if X isn't competitive in 1990, it can't be competitive in 2010 isn't a fair statement - The bench of both parties, the leadership may have been different competency wise in different generations, you pointed to shifting demographics. I will also point out that the Democratic base is more focused on winning statewide races that it has ever been in the last few decades. This was sadly something which was ignored for a long time by Democrats & now they understand the negative fallout of all that. There are many people who want to run in statewide & local races or will atleast help others in winning such races

[Holmes]

Likely D:
Illinois
New Mexico
Nevada

Toss up:
Florida

Likely R:
Arizona

[Xing]

1. New Mexico (Likely D)
2. Illinois (Lean D)
3. Nevada (Pure Toss-Up)
4. Florida (Tilt R)
5. Arizona (Lean R)

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Democrats couldnt win Florida in 2006 I dont think they will win in 2018 unless the state Democratic party becomes a lot more competent .

The electorate has changed since then, even in midterms. It is less white, with the added bonus of FL Hispanics trending away from Republicans in recent years. If FL 2006 meant something, then FL 2010 & 2014 should as well. Democrats performed exceptionally well in the midst of 2 pro-Republican waves, and came very close each time to winning the Governor's office. If things remain that competitive under a Trump midterm, I imagine it would give them a pretty decent advantage.

To add to this, in 2006, Jeb! was more popular than Scott is now, Crist was a better candidate than Putnam is likely to be (at least in my opinion. Putnam is the living definition of a career politician who was elected to his first office with all the worldly experience of a 22 year old college graduate 🙄), Graham is stronger than Davis was, and, as Virginia noted, Florida is not the state it was in 2006 when Republicans could actually win places like Miami-Dade and Orange County. Also, W's approval rating in Florida at the time of the election was a respectable 47% according to a CNN exit poll. I suspect Trump will be a much tougher drag.

In essence, this is about as tossup as you can possibly get. Democrats just can't  it up with a bad candidate this go around (not that Sink was bad, but Crist 2014 certainly was).

I'm going to be paying attention to the SD-40 special election, as that could be an indicator of whether the national environment is too tough for the Cuban Republican machine to handle.

didnt a poll show Scott Approval at 57%.

[Confused Democrat]

1. New Mexico (Likely D)
2. Illinois (Lean D)
3. Nevada (Pure Toss-Up)
4. Florida (Tilt R)
5. Arizona (Lean R)

I'm curious as to why you think Florida is tilt R as opposed to pure tossup.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is NM "gone" for Republicans cause of the possible contenders or cause only a "special" person like Martinez could even win it for Rs?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Is NM "gone" for Republicans cause of the possible contenders or cause only a "special" person like Martinez could even win it for Rs?

I would say it's gone because of 1)Trump effect, 2) ever-increasing Hispanic population, and 3) Martinez, much like Christie, has seen much of her previous shine come off and is now fairly unpopular iirc. Between those 3 factors I just don't see how a Republican wins here next year

[Kingpoleon]

IL: Lean D
NM: Tilt D/Tossup
FL: Tossup
NV: Tilt/Lean R
AZ: Lean/Likely R

[henster]

NM is Lean D, Martinez is unpopular and Republicans don't appear have any strong candidates who could beat Grisham or Balderas should he run.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Voted Illinois simply because I detest Gov. Rauner but MOST LIKELY is certainly New Mexico with Illinois in close second.

[Xing]

1. New Mexico (Likely D)
2. Illinois (Lean D)
3. Nevada (Pure Toss-Up)
4. Florida (Tilt R)
5. Arizona (Lean R)

I'm curious as to why you think Florida is tilt R as opposed to pure tossup.

I don't trust the Democrats to get a top-tier candidate in this race.

And as for NV, gubernatorial races are less partisan/nationalized than Senate races (at least in some states), and Sandoval is very popular, so the Republican candidate will have a lot to run on.