Could the following states flip, and how?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

In 2020, how could the following states vote opposite of the way they voted in 2016, and how? What counties would need to be won? How would margins need to be different? What strategies would work best? What Dem candidate would be most likely to make it happen?

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
ME-02
NE-02
Maine
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Virginia
Nevada
North Carolina
Georgia

I'll say for Dems, Pennsylvania needs a three-pronged approach as the confluence of three separate events cost them the state.

1. Philadelphia

Dems rely on one huge city to run over the rest of the voters in a ton of states, and Pennsylvania is no exception. But Philadelphia proper has seen voter deregistration at an alarming pace due to people moving out (presumably out of state). Local Dems need to make the city of Philadelphia and the surrounding area a more attractive place to stay. Hillary probably came pretty close to maxing this area out, and it wasn't enough.

2. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh has also lost population, but the remaining residents have also began to vote more Republican in recent years. Yet Hillary Clinton declined to campaign here, focusing only on Philadelphia and likely furthering voters' perception that Democrats don't care about them. Bill Clinton nearly swept the entire Pittsburgh metro area; Hillary Clinton won only Allegheny County, and by an unimpressive margin. The next nominee must campaign here.

3. Everywhere Else

The flipping of Erie County and enormous Trump margins in the rest of the state were also necessary for Trump to pull through. But when Hillary's campaign team found out she was losing ground in the state, their solution was to go to Philadelphia and try to run up her margins there so the rest of the state didn't matter. These huge Trump margins in Pennsyltucky were fueled by people who voted Obama twice but probably felt that the Democratic Party didn't care about them anymore. And I get why Dems don't like campaigning in rural areas. It's hard. You have to do 10 events to reach as many people as you could with one Philly event. It's also unfriendly territory. But Dems can't afford to take the kind of shellacking they took in the non-Philly, non-Pittsburgh portion of the state last year, and there are plenty of two-time Obama voters who voted Trump to be won back there.

[The_Doctor]

For the Democrats to flip all of these Trump states they need to man up and create a national coalition of working class whites and minorities plus a few upscale whites. The Democrats are uncomfortable with this concept because it runs against the SJW credo but let's face it all the great Democratic coalitions were staffed by people from a wide variety of backgrounds, including those who held less than stellar racial and cultural liberal attitudes. They voted Democratic to give themselves and their children a more secure and economically equitable future. Full stop. Andrew Jackson, FDR, Jack Kennedy, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama.

They were all elected because of this basic principle and anytime Democrats run on that basis they win. Anytime they run on anything else they lose.

For the Republicans, they need to broaden their coalition a tad and stop alienating minorities. They have a horrible reputation among 50% of the country and that includes major metropolitan areas of Nevada and Minnesota. They will probably win Maine in 2020 with the current coalition but winning Nevada and Minnesota will require more political adroitness than they've exhibited.

[Medal506]

For the Democrats to flip all of these Trump states they need to man up and create a national coalition of working class whites and minorities plus a few upscale whites. The Democrats are uncomfortable with this concept because it runs against the SJW credo but let's face it all the great Democratic coalitions were staffed by people from a wide variety of backgrounds, including those who held less than stellar racial and cultural liberal attitudes. They voted Democratic to give themselves and their children a more secure and economically equitable future. Full stop. Andrew Jackson, FDR, Jack Kennedy, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama.

They were all elected because of this basic principle and anytime Democrats run on that basis they win. Anytime they run on anything else they lose.

For the Republicans, they need to broaden their coalition a tad and stop alienating minorities. They have a horrible reputation among 50% of the country and that includes major metropolitan areas of Nevada and Minnesota. They will probably win Maine in 2020 with the current coalition but winning Nevada and Minnesota will require more political adroitness than they've exhibited.

Democrats are treating white people the same way they treated black people back in the 1950s and 1960s. Democrats treat white people horribly and I'm sorry but democrats aren't going to get anymore than 40 percent of the white vote at the national level especially not the white working class voters. That's a solid republican voter block

[InheritTheWind]

Democrats are treating white people the same way they treated black people back in the 1950s and 1960s. Democrats treat white people horribly and I'm sorry but democrats aren't going to get anymore than 40 percent of the white vote at the national level especially not the white working class voters. That's a solid republican voter block

Yes, because Democrats are openly supporting the segregation and subjugation of white people. Are you serious?

[The_Doctor]

For the Democrats to flip all of these Trump states they need to man up and create a national coalition of working class whites and minorities plus a few upscale whites. The Democrats are uncomfortable with this concept because it runs against the SJW credo but let's face it all the great Democratic coalitions were staffed by people from a wide variety of backgrounds, including those who held less than stellar racial and cultural liberal attitudes. They voted Democratic to give themselves and their children a more secure and economically equitable future. Full stop. Andrew Jackson, FDR, Jack Kennedy, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama.

They were all elected because of this basic principle and anytime Democrats run on that basis they win. Anytime they run on anything else they lose.

For the Republicans, they need to broaden their coalition a tad and stop alienating minorities. They have a horrible reputation among 50% of the country and that includes major metropolitan areas of Nevada and Minnesota. They will probably win Maine in 2020 with the current coalition but winning Nevada and Minnesota will require more political adroitness than they've exhibited.

Democrats are treating white people the same way they treated black people back in the 1950s and 1960s. Democrats treat white people horribly and I'm sorry but democrats aren't going to get anymore than 40 percent of the white vote at the national level especially not the white working class voters. That's a solid republican voter block

That's an amazingly short sighted viewpoint but quick news flash: 40% is enough coupled with 75% of the minority vote to win an election. Now if 40% of whites were voting Democratic that's a very odd expression of anger at a party supposedly subjugating them.

You also brilliantly missed my entire point.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

We're reaching levels of hyperbole that shouldn't even be possible.

[henster]

Growth in Philadelphia is decent it is not declining at all and the whole Main Line is pretty much the only place in PA that is growing. It is still possible to win the state by running up margins in those areas alone + Pittsburgh especially if the rest of the state continues to shrink.

http://crossroads.newsworks.org/index.php/local/keystone-crossroads/102483-philly-harrisburg-regions-gained-residents-while-most-pa-counties-lost-population

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Growth in Philadelphia is decent it is not declining at all and the whole Main Line is pretty much the only place in PA that is growing. It is still possible to win the state by running up margins in those areas alone + Pittsburgh especially if the rest of the state continues to shrink.

http://crossroads.newsworks.org/index.php/local/keystone-crossroads/102483-philly-harrisburg-regions-gained-residents-while-most-pa-counties-lost-population

Thank you for bringing us back on topic.

[Inmate Trump]

Democrats are treating white people the same way they treated black people back in the 1950s and 1960s. Democrats treat white people horribly and I'm sorry but democrats aren't going to get anymore than 40 percent of the white vote at the national level especially not the white working class voters. That's a solid republican voter block

Yea, because white men are so disadvantaged in our society..........

Calm down, dude.

[Person Man]

Democrats are treating white people the same way they treated black people back in the 1950s and 1960s. Democrats treat white people horribly and I'm sorry but democrats aren't going to get anymore than 40 percent of the white vote at the national level especially not the white working class voters. That's a solid republican voter block

Yea, because white men are so disadvantaged in our society..........

Calm down, dude.

Seriously. Lay off the identity politics. People who complain about racism aren't automaticly reverse racist.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Democrats are treating white people the same way they treated black people back in the 1950s and 1960s. Democrats treat white people horribly and I'm sorry but democrats aren't going to get anymore than 40 percent of the white vote at the national level especially not the white working class voters. That's a solid republican voter block

Yea, because white men are so disadvantaged in our society..........

Calm down, dude.

Seriously. Lay off the identity politics. People who complain about racism aren't automaticly reverse racist.

I think he was trying to say that there is no parallel from 50s/60s treatment of blacks to 10s treatment of white men. I don't see white men being hosed or murdered for basic human rights.

[TML]

As Obama said in one of his exit interviews, Democrats need to reframe the debate on policy issues for rural voters. Contrary to what some people might think, there is strong support for some major aspects of the Democrats' policy platform even in rural areas. In 2016, rural voters, along with working-class whites without college degrees, voted Republican by a large margin. Since the margins in WI/MI/PA were a fraction of a percent each, Democrats don't necessarily need to win these voter groups outright, but they do need to narrow the losing margin a bit. IMO, all that's necessary for the next Democratic nominee to win back these three states is for him or her to personally reach out to a significant number of rural and/or white working-class voters w/o college degrees (who supported Democrats in the past) such that the losing margin among these voting groups is narrowed to a more respectable margin (e.g. 2:1 or 3:2 instead of 4:1 or 3:1).

[Coolface Sock #42069]

As Obama said in one of his exit interviews, Democrats need to reframe the debate on policy issues for rural voters. Contrary to what some people might think, there is strong support for some major aspects of the Democrats' policy platform even in rural areas. In 2016, rural voters, along with working-class whites without college degrees, voted Republican by a large margin. Since the margins in WI/MI/PA were a fraction of a percent each, Democrats don't necessarily need to win these voter groups outright, but they do need to narrow the losing margin a bit. IMO, all that's necessary for the next Democratic nominee to win back these three states is for him or her to personally reach out to a significant number of rural and/or white working-class voters w/o college degrees (who supported Democrats in the past) such that the losing margin among these voting groups is narrowed to a more respectable margin (e.g. 2:1 or 3:2 instead of 4:1 or 3:1).

That's really what I'm thinking, especially in PA/WI.

But if they lost WWC 4:1, they'd lose just about every single swing state and a bunch of blue ones. They lost almost every swing state this time with a 2:1 WWC margin.

[GoTfan]

The only way they can win back the Rust Belt is if they embrace economic populism. Right now, they seem to be running in the opposite direction while using their liberal flagbearers-Sanders, Warren and Brown-to give lip service to it.

[Person Man]

Democrats are treating white people the same way they treated black people back in the 1950s and 1960s. Democrats treat white people horribly and I'm sorry but democrats aren't going to get anymore than 40 percent of the white vote at the national level especially not the white working class voters. That's a solid republican voter block

Yea, because white men are so disadvantaged in our society..........

Calm down, dude.

Seriously. Lay off the identity politics. People who complain about racism aren't automaticly reverse racist.

I think he was trying to say that there is no parallel from 50s/60s treatment of blacks to 10s treatment of white men. I don't see white men being hosed or murdered for basic human rights.

There isn't. People who talk about being discriminated against for being white are racist. Who here actually has been discriminated against for being white beyond being having their ADHD being mistaken as racism by minorities in public?

[Hindsight was 2020]

A lot of things about Trump's victory has pissed me off but up there is that Trump wasn't racist but "democrats were racist aganist white men" give me a break Trump is trying to freakin ban a religion but Hillary saying "basket of deplorables" was just going too far

[Person Man]

A lot of things about Trump's victory has pissed me off but up there is that Trump wasn't racist but "democrats were racist aganist white men" give me a break Trump is trying to freakin ban a religion but Hillary saying "basket of deplorables" was just going too far

You have so much hate!




But seriously. This.

[Inmate Trump]

A lot of things about Trump's victory has pissed me off but up there is that Trump wasn't racist but "democrats were racist aganist white men" give me a break Trump is trying to freakin ban a religion but Hillary saying "basket of deplorables" was just going too far

Yep.

Which is why she was 100% right; they are all deplorables.

[Figueira]

All of them can flip if the respective parties run a very strong campaign that doesn't alienate anyone and launches strong, viable attacks against the opposing party. Iowa and Virginia would be the hardest.

[Steam Boat Willie]

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
Iowa- no because of trends
Ohio- Is Ohio still a battleground state?  Probably but has the WV trend taken hold there?
Florida- no
ME-02- stop
NE-02- stop
Maine- We'll see if Maine was a trend or a one time deal.
New Hampshire- easily can switch
Minnesota- If Trump is re-elected Minnesota could easily go red.
Virginia- not likely but it's consistently matched the popular vote for the last 3 elections
Nevada- Trump would've won Nevada without Johnson so we'll see.
North Carolina- not unless Democrats win by more than 6
Georgia- not unless it's a Democrat landslide

[Lord Admirale]

A lot of things about Trump's victory has pissed me off but up there is that Trump wasn't racist but "democrats were racist aganist white men" give me a break Trump is trying to freakin ban a religion but Hillary saying "basket of deplorables" was just going too far

And after losing the biggest upset since Dewey defeats Truman, you (the left) are STILL pushing the identity politics. How is Trump banning a religion? Is that what Occupy Democrats told you?

[Hindsight was 2020]

A lot of things about Trump's victory has pissed me off but up there is that Trump wasn't racist but "democrats were racist aganist white men" give me a break Trump is trying to freakin ban a religion but Hillary saying "basket of deplorables" was just going too far

And after losing the biggest upset since Dewey defeats Truman, you (the left) are STILL pushing the identity politics. How is Trump banning a religion? Is that what Occupy Democrats told you?

If Trump's goal from his "travel ban" wasn't ultimatly a religious ban why is he endorsing Le Pen?

[Lord Admirale]

A lot of things about Trump's victory has pissed me off but up there is that Trump wasn't racist but "democrats were racist aganist white men" give me a break Trump is trying to freakin ban a religion but Hillary saying "basket of deplorables" was just going too far

And after losing the biggest upset since Dewey defeats Truman, you (the left) are STILL pushing the identity politics. How is Trump banning a religion? Is that what Occupy Democrats told you?

If Trump's goal from his "travel ban" wasn't ultimatly a religious ban why is he endorsing Le Pen?

He didn't endorse Le Pen? He called her the strongest of all the French candidates, but he's also called a lot of political figures strong, like Putin. And lets not forget that he bombed his so-called puppeteer's ally.

Also, last I checked, you can still be a Muslim in the United States. Hell, you could be a Satanist if you wanted. Trump hasn't banned any religion since he took office.

[krazen1211]

A lot of things about Trump's victory has pissed me off but up there is that Trump wasn't racist but "democrats were racist aganist white men" give me a break Trump is trying to freakin ban a religion but Hillary saying "basket of deplorables" was just going too far

It is quite telling that the white liberals are more concerned with the fate of Muslim foreigners than they are about their own countrymen.

Physician, heal thyself!

[Xing]

Getting back on topic, a couple of things could happen:

If Democrats win back some WWC voters, they can definitely win back Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, given the closeness of all three. Iowa, Ohio, and ME-02 will be much tougher, and will likely require Trump and the Republicans to make some sort of blunder which causes them to be seen as out of touch. If they take this approach, though, winning states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina will be difficult, and states like Virginia, and possibly Nevada and Colorado will be competitive.

If the trends of 2016 continue, Democrats could conceivably flip Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and NE-02, if Republican support truly tanks in the suburbs. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will likely still be competitive, but unless turnout is low in rural areas, Democrats will have a hard time getting wide enough margins in urban areas. States like New Hampshire will definitely be winnable for Republicans in this scenario, and Maine/Minnesota could be as well.

In either case, I think Florida will come down to turnout, and which party does a better job of energizing its voters.