South Shore of Massachusetts

[DPKdebator]

The South Shore is a region of Massachusetts that gets its name from being south of Boston and on the water. It is extremely homogeneous- every town is wealthy, white as Vermont, and has a plurality of Irish-Americans (overall, the region hovers around 35-40% Irish). The region is one of the most Republican in the state, and is typically a safe R bloc during state elections (many towns gave Scott Brown and Charlie Baker over 60% of their votes), but Democrats generally do somewhat better during presidential elections.

My question here is about how strangely the South Shore voted in 2016. Trump wasn't a great fit for the area (predominantly upper middle class), so naturally the Romney Republican region garnered many more Clinton votes. However, the change wasn't really consistent:

As shown above, Clinton won many more towns than Obama did. While most towns swung to Clinton, a few of them actually swung to Trump. Considering the region as a whole is very similar, why would some towns do a hardline Clinton swing while others swung to Trump? It can't be demographic change, since I go to the area frequently to visit family and the region itself hasn't changed at all over the years (fun fact: Hingham bans fast food restaurants and tall store/restaurant signs).

[Figueira]

I don't know that much about this area, but those inland towns aren't as wealthy as the coastal ones. If you look at an income map of the state, it matches up with the trend map in the South Shore.

[Strudelcutie4427]

I used to live in Braintree so I know the area well. It's exactly how you said, mainly wealthy towns swung towards the democrats this year while the poorer ones trended republican. The NE part of the south shore is extremely well off (Hingham, Scituate, Norwell, and Cohasset) same with duxbury a little further down. Braintree and Weymouth are beginning to feel the effects of Boston expanding through Quincy and yuppies moving in. The towns that trended republican are either working class like Rockland and Whitman or just rural like Halifax Hanson Carver and Plympton. All in all though I think Hingham Hull and Cohasset were the only towns to vote over 55% dem, which is why the south shore doesn't have its own congressional district and is kinda chopped between 3

[DPKdebator]

I used to live in Braintree so I know the area well. It's exactly how you said, mainly wealthy towns swung towards the democrats this year while the poorer ones trended republican. The NE part of the south shore is extremely well off (Hingham, Scituate, Norwell, and Cohasset) same with duxbury a little further down. Braintree and Weymouth are beginning to feel the effects of Boston expanding through Quincy and yuppies moving in. The towns that trended republican are either working class like Rockland and Whitman or just rural like Halifax Hanson Carver and Plympton. All in all though I think Hingham Hull and Cohasset were the only towns to vote over 55% dem, which is why the south shore doesn't have its own congressional district and is kinda chopped between 3

The South Shore doesn't have enough people to support its own congressional district anyways, and a district centered on the area would have to include other places.

[Strudelcutie4427]

I used to live in Braintree so I know the area well. It's exactly how you said, mainly wealthy towns swung towards the democrats this year while the poorer ones trended republican. The NE part of the south shore is extremely well off (Hingham, Scituate, Norwell, and Cohasset) same with duxbury a little further down. Braintree and Weymouth are beginning to feel the effects of Boston expanding through Quincy and yuppies moving in. The towns that trended republican are either working class like Rockland and Whitman or just rural like Halifax Hanson Carver and Plympton. All in all though I think Hingham Hull and Cohasset were the only towns to vote over 55% dem, which is why the south shore doesn't have its own congressional district and is kinda chopped between 3

The South Shore doesn't have enough people to support its own congressional district anyways, and a district centered on the area would have to include other places.

South shore + The cape maybe? Not sure the population of any of the towns down there now but I think the cape has over 200k and behaves much like the south shore until you get around the capes elbow in Chatham then it gets very rich liberal heading up to Truro and ptown

[DPKdebator]

I used to live in Braintree so I know the area well. It's exactly how you said, mainly wealthy towns swung towards the democrats this year while the poorer ones trended republican. The NE part of the south shore is extremely well off (Hingham, Scituate, Norwell, and Cohasset) same with duxbury a little further down. Braintree and Weymouth are beginning to feel the effects of Boston expanding through Quincy and yuppies moving in. The towns that trended republican are either working class like Rockland and Whitman or just rural like Halifax Hanson Carver and Plympton. All in all though I think Hingham Hull and Cohasset were the only towns to vote over 55% dem, which is why the south shore doesn't have its own congressional district and is kinda chopped between 3

The South Shore doesn't have enough people to support its own congressional district anyways, and a district centered on the area would have to include other places.

South shore + The cape maybe? Not sure the population of any of the towns down there now but I think the cape has over 200k and behaves much like the south shore until you get around the capes elbow in Chatham then it gets very rich liberal heading up to Truro and ptown

Maybe this could work?

This district has the South Shore + the Cape + most of the rest of Plymouth County (besides Brockton, Marion, and Mattapoisett) + Acushnet and Freetown. The district has a "natural" feeling look to it and doesn't look like it is the product of gerrymandering.

[Strudelcutie4427]

I used to live in Braintree so I know the area well. It's exactly how you said, mainly wealthy towns swung towards the democrats this year while the poorer ones trended republican. The NE part of the south shore is extremely well off (Hingham, Scituate, Norwell, and Cohasset) same with duxbury a little further down. Braintree and Weymouth are beginning to feel the effects of Boston expanding through Quincy and yuppies moving in. The towns that trended republican are either working class like Rockland and Whitman or just rural like Halifax Hanson Carver and Plympton. All in all though I think Hingham Hull and Cohasset were the only towns to vote over 55% dem, which is why the south shore doesn't have its own congressional district and is kinda chopped between 3

The South Shore doesn't have enough people to support its own congressional district anyways, and a district centered on the area would have to include other places.

South shore + The cape maybe? Not sure the population of any of the towns down there now but I think the cape has over 200k and behaves much like the south shore until you get around the capes elbow in Chatham then it gets very rich liberal heading up to Truro and ptown

Maybe this could work?

This district has the South Shore + the Cape + most of the rest of Plymouth County (besides Brockton, Marion, and Mattapoisett) + Acushnet and Freetown. The district has a "natural" feeling look to it and doesn't look like it is the product of gerrymandering.

That looks great!!! Way better than the ridiculous set up of 4/8/9 rn. Under your set up it would be easy to give Bristol county a district rather than stick it in with that arm up to Kennedy in Brookline who probably doesn't represent Bristol well at all

[hopper]

I'm sure in the next few decades MA Dems in the State Legislature will give the GOP one Congressional District. The Southern Shore Congressional District is the most Republican Congressional District in MA at D+4 currently.

[Strudelcutie4427]

I'm sure in the next few decades MA Dems in the State Legislature will give the GOP one Congressional District. The Southern Shore Congressional District is the most Republican Congressional District in MA at D+4 currently.

I think that'd have to be in 2020 or never. Baker is extremely popular and will probably won reelection so he will be able to veto whatever map the Dems propose. The only real question is are there enough democrats in the legislature that would break with the party to uphold the veto and force a compromise map to be drawn

[Gass3268]

I'm sure in the next few decades MA Dems in the State Legislature will give the GOP one Congressional District. The Southern Shore Congressional District is the most Republican Congressional District in MA at D+4 currently.

I think that'd have to be in 2020 or never. Baker is extremely popular and will probably won reelection so he will be able to veto whatever map the Dems propose. The only real question is are there enough democrats in the legislature that would break with the party to uphold the veto and force a compromise map to be drawn

Democrats currently have 34 Senators and takes 27 to override a veto. Meaning Democrats can lose 7 Senators and still override. In the House Democrats currently have 126 Representatives and it takes 107 Representative to override a veto. Democrats can lose 19 Representatives and still override a veto. No way Baker and the Republicans pull off enough Democrats when you are looking at a majority of those margins.

[Figueira]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

It's possible. Just really ugly. I've drawn a map with 2 with one snaking from Chester around Springfield and up to dracut and another one from Braintree down around Brockton then running through Foxboro out to around Douglas. Like I said ugly as hell. Would post it but idk how to 😂

[DPKdebator]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

That's pretty much the district that I posted above. Take out New Bedford, Fall River, and the islands and replace them with Plymouth/Norfolk/maybe Bristol towns.

[Figueira]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

It's possible. Just really ugly. I've drawn a map with 2 with one snaking from Chester around Springfield and up to dracut and another one from Braintree down around Brockton then running through Foxboro out to around Douglas. Like I said ugly as hell. Would post it but idk how to 😂

I guess. But no Democrat has any incentive to agree to that.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

It's possible. Just really ugly. I've drawn a map with 2 with one snaking from Chester around Springfield and up to dracut and another one from Braintree down around Brockton then running through Foxboro out to around Douglas. Like I said ugly as hell. Would post it but idk how to 😂

I guess. But no Democrat has any incentive to agree to that.

You never know. If there's one they don't like they can give him an unfavorable district. McGovern over in Worcester seems like a real douchenozzle

[Libertarian in Name Only]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

It's possible. Just really ugly. I've drawn a map with 2 with one snaking from Chester around Springfield and up to dracut and another one from Braintree down around Brockton then running through Foxboro out to around Douglas. Like I said ugly as hell. Would post it but idk how to 😂

Chester and Dracut are 100+ miles from each other, that's crazy!

[DPKdebator]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

It's possible. Just really ugly. I've drawn a map with 2 with one snaking from Chester around Springfield and up to dracut and another one from Braintree down around Brockton then running through Foxboro out to around Douglas. Like I said ugly as hell. Would post it but idk how to 😂

Chester and Dracut are 100+ miles from each other, that's crazy!

That's gerrymandering for you.

[Figueira]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

It's possible. Just really ugly. I've drawn a map with 2 with one snaking from Chester around Springfield and up to dracut and another one from Braintree down around Brockton then running through Foxboro out to around Douglas. Like I said ugly as hell. Would post it but idk how to 😂

I guess. But no Democrat has any incentive to agree to that.

You never know. If there's one they don't like they can give him an unfavorable district. McGovern over in Worcester seems like a real douchenozzle

McGovern is one of the best people in Congress.

[krazen1211]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

It's possible. Just really ugly. I've drawn a map with 2 with one snaking from Chester around Springfield and up to dracut and another one from Braintree down around Brockton then running through Foxboro out to around Douglas. Like I said ugly as hell. Would post it but idk how to 😂

They could put the metrowest into 1 district rather than blast it into smithereens.

[Strudelcutie4427]

how do i post DRA maps on here? I actually drew a pretty good looking Massachusetts map

[DPKdebator]

how do i post DRA maps on here? I actually drew a pretty good looking Massachusetts map

I would take screenshots of it.

[nclib]

I'm sure in the next few decades MA Dems in the State Legislature will give the GOP one Congressional District. The Southern Shore Congressional District is the most Republican Congressional District in MA at D+4 currently.

I think that'd have to be in 2020 or never. Baker is extremely popular and will probably won reelection so he will be able to veto whatever map the Dems propose. The only real question is are there enough democrats in the legislature that would break with the party to uphold the veto and force a compromise map to be drawn

Democrats currently have 34 Senators and takes 27 to override a veto. Meaning Democrats can lose 7 Senators and still override. In the House Democrats currently have 126 Representatives and it takes 107 Representative to override a veto. Democrats can lose 19 Representatives and still override a veto. No way Baker and the Republicans pull off enough Democrats when you are looking at a majority of those margins.

Regardless of whether or not Baker would veto and/or get overridden by the Mass. legislature, a Repub district would not likely exist. Dems of course have no incentive to draw a Repub-sink CD as the other districts are already safe. If Baker vetoes and his veto is sustained, a non-partisan map would be drawn, and a clean map would be expected to go all Dem as there is no geographic concentration of Repubs in the state. I drew a CD on DRA going from Plymouth County to Worcester County, and then to Essex County, and even then could only get plurality McCain.

[Figueira]

Not to mention, it's virtually impossible to draw a Republican district in MA anyway, since the Republican voters are fairly spread out throughout the state. I mean, maybe you could make MA-09 a Tilt D rather than Lean D district, but that's about it.

It's possible. Just really ugly. I've drawn a map with 2 with one snaking from Chester around Springfield and up to dracut and another one from Braintree down around Brockton then running through Foxboro out to around Douglas. Like I said ugly as hell. Would post it but idk how to 😂

They could put the metrowest into 1 district rather than blast it into smithereens.

Still wouldn't help the Republicans much. The reason the current map looks so weird is so that the incumbent Democrats won't lose their primaries.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Why would the Democrats in the legislature ever draw a Republican district anyway? The only reason to draw a district for the other party is as a vote sink, which Massachusetts doesn't need.

[Figueira]

Also if hypothetically Democrats in the legislature wanted to get rid of McGovern, they could just divide Worcester between two Boston districts, and leave it at that. No need to give the Republicans something.