GA-6 Special Election Predictions

[Wells]

Ossoff 46%
Handel 19%
Gray 13%
Hill 10%
Moody 9%
Others 3%

Ossoff 53%
Handel 47%

[Maxwell]

I'm having a hard time imagining that Handel will over shoot her polling considering her historic career of being overhyped and overpolled.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jungle:

Ossoff:43
Gray:17
Handel:15
Hill:11
Moody:10
Abroms:2
Others:2

Run Off:

Ossoff:44
Gray:56

[MT Treasurer]

Updating this:

Ossoff 45%
Handel 15%
Hill 14%
Gray 14%
Moody 9%
Other 3%

Runoff

Handel 53%
Ossoff 47%

[jamestroll]

Updating this:

Ossoff 45%
Handel 16%
Hill 14%
Gray 12%
Moody 10%
Other 3%

Runoff

Handel 53%
Ossoff 47%

I agree with you here. Except for the run off reverse those numbers. I think and hope Handel will implode. She keeps desperately running for public office. Ossoff would be able to attack her from that angle.

If she wins  do not worry though. I get over my panic attacks quickly.

[SoLongAtlas]

Ossoff the overall, Handel to win the runoff. Ads, polling, bios, etc goodies here https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_6th_Congressional_District_special_election,_2017?gclid=CJ6okuLGq9MCFdgJgQod43cNyA#tab=Campaign_ads

Ossoff seems like a douchey Georgetown bro type plus the fact that he is faking national security credentials which as a vet, really is something that ticks me off in candidates.

[The Other Castro]

Actually, new prediction. Go big or go home:

Ossoff 51%
Hill 14%
Handel 13%
Gray 11%
Moody 8%
Other 3%

[Progressive]

Delicious    50% (straddling the 50% mark)
Hill            16%
Handel       16%
Gray          10%
Moody        5%
Other         3%

Outright win by Ossoff but result not declared until next day because win constantly fluctuates between 49.9% and 50.1%

[LabourJersey]

This would be the most painful loss, but I think it will happen:
Ossoff- 49.8%
Hill 14%
Handel 13%
Gray 11%
Moody 10%
Other 2.2%

Runoff:
Hill 50.5%
Ossoff 49.5%

[CapoteMonster]

Ossoff will beat Handel in the runoff.

[Skill and Chance]

There will be a runoff and Handel won't make the runoff.

[Figueira]

I haven't been following the Republican side of this very closely, but here's my prediction:

Primary (final prediction):
Ossoff 44%
Handel 17%
Gray 16%
Moody 14%
Hill 5%
Others 4%

Runoff (not a final prediction):
Handel 53%
Ossoff 47%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unfortunately, any of the republicans would smash him in a runoff. Except Bruce Levell, and he won't even be getting one percent of the vote.

[Maxwell]

Unfortunately, any of the republicans would smash him in a runoff. Except Bruce Levell, and he won't even be getting one percent of the vote.

You have Bob Gray defeating him by double digits, which I find amusing considering Gray is as bad a fit for this district as Trump is + the fact that Trump is also actively running against Gray.

[Pandaguineapig]

Gray strikes me as somebody whose stronger irl than he is on paper given his success on social media and fundraising. He could be a less extreme version of Jason Lewis

[Maxwell]

Gray strikes me as somebody whose stronger irl than he is on paper given his success on social media and fundraising. He could be a less extreme version of Jason Lewis

He is strong on those barometers probably because of his strong support for President Trump.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

UPDATED ATLAS AVERAGE

Ossoff (n=30) 43.98%
Handel (n=28) 17.53%
Gray (n=22) 12.78%
Moody (n=22) 9.50%
Hill (n=21) 9.46%
Other (n=22) 3.35%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

HANDEL VS. OSSOFF RUNOFF AVERAGE

(n=17)

Handel 50.9%
Ossoff 49.1%

GRAY VS. OSSOFF RUNOFF AVERAGE

(n=3)

Gray 52.7%
Ossoff 47.3%

(Only one prediction each for Hill/Moody runoff, so no average needed there.)

[Tartarus Sauce]

I'm not going to even bother to list exact percentages. My best guess would be Ossoff gets something between 43-46% of the vote, and then heads to a run off with Handel which would basically be a coin toss. I originally thought he would need to be high-40s to be solid for the run-off, but my reasoning on that was dubious. It's still possible Ossoff manages to crack 50% though that is looking much less likely at this point.

[Heisenberg]

My prediction:

Jungle:
Ossoff: 45%
Handel: 16%
Hill: 13%
Gray: 12%
Others: 13%

Runoff:
Handel: 53%
Ossoff: 47%

[Klartext89]

Well, I will post my prediction because my KS-2 prediction would have been damn right.

Jungle:
Ossoff: 43%
Other Dem: 2%
Gray: 20%
Handel: 16%
Hill: 9%
Other GOP: 10%


Runoff:
Gray: 54%
Ossoff: 46%

[Brittain33]

Trolling subthread and replies deleted. --Mod

[RI]

Ossoff doesn't clear 45% and some Republican other than Handel makes the runoff.

[Suburbia]

Poor Karen Handel. If she loses this House election, her political career may be over. She's like Steve Lonegan and Mark Green (NY). Perennial candidates.

[Classic Conservative]

I have a friend in Virginia, who supported Trump and is gay, and he went down to GA-6 to campaign for Gray. From the pictures he posted, there were a lot of volunteers and high-profile Trump supporters campaigning for him.