GA-6 Special Election Predictions

[Suburbia]

If Ossoff loses, there is always 2018 and 2020. Same with James Thompson in Kansas.

[Brittain33]

New prediction poll:


At what time do you think Ossoff will fall below 50%, if at all?

Knowing nothing about how quickly GA counts votes, I'll arbitrarily say 9:45 PM.

[RI]

New prediction poll:


At what time do you think Ossoff will fall below 50%, if at all?

Knowing nothing about how quickly GA counts votes, I'll arbitrarily say 9:45 PM.

My recollection is that Cobb counts slowest while DeKalb counts quickest.

[Virginiá]

If Ossoff loses, there is always 2018 and 2020. Same with James Thompson in Kansas.

I think it's going to take longer than a few months for these kinds of suburban districts to become truly competitive for Democrats. Even as a district moves away from a particular party, they can and often do vote one way for president and another way for downballot races. This was a relatively common trend in the south as well.

If Ossoff manages to win this seat, I think it would have more to do with the massive attention/resources and energy he received and not necessarily because of some genuine sea-change in GA-6 voter preferences. However if he wins it, I do think he might be able to hold it in 2018, and perhaps even for a few more cycles, or at least until we get a Democratic president.

[Crumpets]

Ossoff 44%
Handel 16%
Hill 16%
Gray 12%
Moody 8%
Other 4%

I'll hold off on predicting the runoff until we know a bit more about the dynamics of the race.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If Ossoff loses, there is always 2018 and 2020. Same with James Thompson in Kansas.

I think it's going to take longer than a few months for these kinds of suburban districts to become truly competitive for Democrats. Even as a district moves away from a particular party, they can and often do vote one way for president and another way for downballot races. This was a relatively common trend in the south as well.

If Ossoff manages to win this seat, I think it would have more to do with the massive attention/resources and energy he received and not necessarily because of some genuine sea-change in GA-6 voter preferences. However if he wins it, I do think he might be able to hold it in 2018, and perhaps even for a few more cycles, or at least until we get a Democratic president.

Let's also not discount the possibility that Trump is a uniquely polarizing candidate who will accelerate partisan shifts much more quickly than your standard president would. We have no idea just how deep a ditch the GOP will find itself in 4 years time. That's not to say that these districts have completely broken away from the Republican party this soon into his term, they certainly haven't, but there's a whole lot of damage Trump can do to the party brand in a short period of time. I mean this as a more general point rather than pertaining to this specific special election.

[Maxwell]

adjusting my prediction last minute

45% Ossoff
14% Moody
14% Handel
13% Gray
9% Hill
5% Others

No idea who rises out of these two, but I'm again picking Moody to over-perform, Handel to under-perform, and Gray and Hill to keep at the levels they've been at.

[Adam Griffin]

For the record, this is still the overall average (+/- a couple of tenths of a point for various candidates):

UPDATED ATLAS AVERAGE

Ossoff (n=30) 43.98%
Handel (n=28) 17.53%
Gray (n=22) 12.78%
Moody (n=22) 9.50%
Hill (n=21) 9.46%
Other (n=22) 3.35%

[McGovernForPrez]

Ossoff is gonna win outright with 53% of the vote. Handel will come in second place.

[TheSaint250]

Round 1

Ossoff: 43%
Handel: 17%
Gray: 16%
Hill: 9%
Moody: 7%

Round 2

Handel: 55%
Ossoff: 45%

[ajc0918]

Jungle:

Ossoff: 46%
Handel: 16.5%
Gray: 14%
Moody: 11%
Hill: 9%
Other 3.5%

[Progressive]

Ossoff is gonna win outright with 53% of the vote. Handel will come in second place.

Oh how I desire for this to be true. I think he can and will pull it off just above 50.0%

[McGovernForPrez]

Ossoff is gonna win outright with 53% of the vote. Handel will come in second place.

Oh how I desire for this to be true. I think he can and will pull it off just above 50.0%

I'm just basing my prediction on the fundamentals of this race. It's a special election with a Republican incumbent president, and there's a hugely split Republican field. Dems are treating this like it's election day and Republicans should be treating this like it's a primary. I don't think polling for a congressional district during a special election is likely to be very accurate. I also think the shifts seen in CA and KS will continue here. I personally think he has a better chance to win this race than to win the run-off.

[OneJ]

Last Second:

45% Ossoff
16% Handel
39% Who Care

[The_Doctor]

47% Ossoff
18% Handel

Runoff

51% Ossoff
49% Handel

(Could be wildly off)

Nah, it can't be that wildly off.  If you'd said Handel 47, Ossoff 18, THAT could be wildly off.

Turns out he'll be at 47.7% according to Cohn while Handel should get to 19-20%. His 48% suggests he should be in good shape for the runoff and this district is now a competitive one.

[Maxwell]

damn dude that's a sweet prediction.

[Xing]

I'm changing my run-off prediction, for the time being.

Ossoff 51%
Handel 49%

[Maxwell]

I'm sticking with a scarily narrow Ossoff win in the run-off.

[Horus]

Sticking with a 51-49 Handel win. This district just isn't ready to flip yet, by 2020 it will be.

[The Other Castro]

Runoff prediction:

Ossoff - 51.5%
Handel - 48.5%

[JGibson]

My #GA06Runoff Prediction:
Ossoff (D): 50.14%
Handel (R) 49.86%

[Mr. Smith]

Handel wins run-off, methinks by about 3 points.

[publicunofficial]

I'm feeling positive. 50-49 Ossoff

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Also feeling positive so I am adjusting to 55 Handel - 45 Ossoff

[Ronnie]

Handel: 52%
Ossoff: 48%

We'll live to fight another day...again.