GA-6 Special Election Predictions

[Lachi]

I'm not making any number predictions, but I think it will be extremely close.

[Brittain33]

Narrow win for Ossoff.

[BaldEagle1991]

Ossoff - 50.1%
Handel - 49.9%

It will be so close, that a recount will take place. Ossoff will win by a very very small margin.

[LabourJersey]

Handel was not the favorite of DC types or Trumpians. It's hardly impossible that one or more of her primary opponents refuses to endorse her.

Ossoff-51.1%
Handel-48.9%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This was/is the final average of our predictions for the jungle:

Ossoff (n=38) 45.48%
Handel (n=35) 17.21%
Gray (n=28) 13.15%
Hill (n=27) 9.77%
Moody (n=26) 9.58%
Other (n=28) 4.26%

So in the final day or so, Ossoff went up nearly 2% in the average, Hill took 4th place from Moody, and other went up by a point. (partially because some people combined Moody and other) Handel and Gray's numbers stayed within half a point of my earlier average.

Compare this to the actual results:

Ossoff, Jon   Dem   92,390   48%
Handel, Karen   GOP   37,993   20%
Gray, Bob           GOP   20,755   11%
Moody, Dan   GOP   16,994   9%
Hill, Judson   GOP   16,848   9%
Other               VARIOUS           3%


So we were about two and a half points off for Ossoff, and just shy of three points off for Handel. We were two points off for Gray. We got the order correct though. We were essentially right on for Moody and Hill, but picked the incorrect winner among those two. And we were about a point and a third off for Other.

Overall, not too bad, but we're not some gold standard or anything.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Are you counting predictions that came in after results started trickling in? I don't think they should be included if so.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^^ Are you counting predictions that came in after results started trickling in? I don't think they should be included if so.

Only one was made after polls closed, and even then only 45 minutes after - at which point we only had one county's early vote - nothing else. So I left it in.