What will be _____'s best department in the first French election round?
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  What will be _____'s best department in the first French election round?
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Author Topic: What will be _____'s best department in the first French election round?  (Read 2431 times)
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BRTD
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« on: April 15, 2017, 02:16:44 PM »

Macron
Le Pen
Melenchon
Fillon
Hamon
Arthaud
Poutou
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2017, 04:14:00 PM »

Macron: Huh, good question. A lot will depend on how much of his electorate is the old PS one as opposed to the hip centrist one. I'm going to guess Paris, but it might as well be one of the overseas departments.

Le Pen: Probably Vaucluse. Possibly Pas-de-Calais, if things really get bleak.

Mélenchon: Seine-Saint-Denis.

Fillon: Nouvelle-Calédonie.

Hamon: Huh, maybe Finistère?

For the Trot ones, you might as well flip a coin, since they'll won't poll above 2% anywhere.

Dupont-Aignan and Lassalle will definitely do best in their respective home turfs.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2017, 04:32:40 PM »

Macron: Paris
Le Pen: Aisne
Mélenchon: Seine-Saint-Denis
Fillon: Vendée
Hamon: Paris

With overseas territories that could change. Fillon should have great score in Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélémy, in Nouvelle-Calédonie.
Le Pen could have some success in Mayotte, French Polynesia, ...
Mélenchon maybe in La Réunion (he is endorsed by the powerful local Communist Party, even if they had a serious defeat in the 2015 local election)
Hard to guess who is going to win French Guyana with the serious crisis underway there.
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Intell
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« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2017, 07:59:25 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2017, 08:47:51 PM by Intell »

Macron: Paris
Le Pen: Vaucluse
Melenchon: Seine-Saint-Denis.
Fillon: Hauts-de-Seine
Hamon: Gers
Dupont-Aigan: Essonne
Putou: Ardennes
Asselineau: Paris
Lassalle: Pyrénées-Atlantiques
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2017, 08:01:15 PM »


You mean Gard? I'm pretty sure Panzergirl will win there.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2017, 08:14:52 PM »

Macron - somewhere in the Northwest
Le Pen - somewhere in the Southeast
Hamon - somewhere in the Southwest
Melenchon - somewhere in the middleish/Southwest
Fillon - somewhere in the Northeast

French electoral geography is not my strong suit.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2017, 08:25:21 PM »

Le Pen could have some success in Mayotte, French Polynesia, ...

I know very little about French politics but I don't understand why Le Pen would be popular in areas far removed from the EU and immigration.
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Intell
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« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2017, 08:31:47 PM »


yea, that, it seems like a socialist stronghold, and with Macron taking the Paris, Middle-Class liberal vote, socialist strongholds, especially in the SW, which doesn't have a very high FN vote, have the highest Hamon vote?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2017, 08:43:41 PM »


yea, that, it seems like a socialist stronghold, and with Macron taking the Paris, Middle-Class liberal vote, socialist strongholds, especially in the SW, which doesn't have a very high FN vote, have the highest Hamon vote?

It's not a Socialist stronghold by any stretch (Flamby came in third there in 2012) and culturally it's far more Southeastern than Southwestern. If you're thinking of Southwestern lefty strongholds, Ariège and Hautes-Pyrénées are much better examples.
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Intell
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« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2017, 08:47:29 PM »


yea, that, it seems like a socialist stronghold, and with Macron taking the Paris, Middle-Class liberal vote, socialist strongholds, especially in the SW, which doesn't have a very high FN vote, have the highest Hamon vote?

It's not a Socialist stronghold by any stretch (Flamby came in third there in 2012) and culturally it's far more Southeastern than Southwestern. If you're thinking of Southwestern lefty strongholds, Ariège and Hautes-Pyrénées are much better examples.

I'm stupid, I meant Gers.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2017, 11:09:44 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2017, 11:12:21 PM by Tintrlvr »

Macron: Paris
Le Pen: Vaucluse
Fillon: Hauts-de-Seine
Melenchon: Seine-Saint-Denis
Hamon: Finistere
Dupont-Aignan: Vendee (duh)
Lassalle: Pyrenees-Atlantiques (duh)
Poutou: Nord
Others: Who knows, really?

If Hamon weren't from Brittany, I would think Macron would do better in Finistere and possibly also Cotes d'Armor in the first round than in Paris.

Not including overseas departments or territories because their results are a bit too "random" (not necessarily random but influenced by very local factors that it's hard to know without being there).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2017, 11:18:44 PM »


Wrong.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2017, 12:12:13 AM »

Le Pen could have some success in Mayotte, French Polynesia, ...

I know very little about French politics but I don't understand why Le Pen would be popular in areas far removed from the EU and immigration.

Well Mayotte is facing a strong immigration pressure from the Comoros (Same in Guyana from Brazil, Haiti, Suriname, ...) and they have a feeling that the State has abandoned them (for example they had a great water shortage a few weeks ago).
In French Polynesia, Le Pen received some local supports, she had 20 signatures from there against 4 in 2012.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2017, 12:30:40 AM »

For reference, in 2012.

Hollande: Guadeloupe (if excluding overseas, Corrèze (home effect))
Sarkozy: Nouvelle-Calédonie (if excluding overseas, Alpes-Maritimes (Nice))
Le Pen: Vaucluse
Mélenchon: Seine-Saint-Denis
Bayrou: Pyrénées-Atlantiques (home effect)
Joly: Paris
Dupont-Aignan: Essonne (home effect)
Pouton: Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon (if excluding overseas, Pyrénées-Atlantiques)
Arthaud: Martinique (if excluding overseas, Somme)
Cheminade: Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon (if excluding overseas, Haut-Rhin)
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parochial boy
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« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2017, 05:06:38 AM »
« Edited: April 16, 2017, 05:16:27 AM by parochial boy »

Macron: Im going to say Ille et Vilaine. Bobos and young people in Rennes.very strong department for the liberal left

Hamon: Finistere, home turf

Melenchon: probaby Seine St Denis

Le Pen: Vaucluse, maybe Haute-Marne

Fillon: Alpes-Maritimes. Old, rich and conservative. no way will 92 be his best. Home boy Sarko only just won it. Remember that the 92 is Nanterre as wll as Neuilly sur seine.

NDA: Essonne

Lassalle: 64

Métropole only. In fact all the minor ones' probably do best in their home départements

I think it is really hard to predict how the rural left wing strongholds will split between Macron and Hamon, but judging by 2011 trends I think Mélenchon could get some big scores in the Massif Central and Pyrenees
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Kringla Heimsins
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« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2017, 07:27:10 AM »
« Edited: April 16, 2017, 07:29:37 AM by Kringla Heimsins »

Macron: Probably Paris, maybe Rhône (I think he will perform very well in Lyon, and the local mayor is a strong supporter of him)
Hamon: Finistère and Paris.
Mélenchon: I would say Haute-Garonne (Toulouse), he will also perform well in Seine-Saint-Denis but it has more of a communist legacy, and Mélenchon is really gutting the PCF right now.
Le Pen: Vaucluse, Var, or Gard. Close behind will be Pas-de-Calais and Ardennes.
Fillon: Sarthe and Vendée. He will get more than 50% of the vote there.
Jean Lassalle: Pyrénées-Atlantique, obviously.
Dupont-Aignan: Essonne.
Poutou and Arthaud will probably perform best in Seine-Saint-Denis as well.

I dont know what will happen in Alsace. People there are pious Catholics, but also very pro-Europe.
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DL
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« Reply #16 on: April 16, 2017, 09:20:08 AM »
« Edited: April 16, 2017, 09:23:35 AM by DL »

Its interesting how much French electoral geography has changed. When Mitterrand beat Giscard narrowly in 1981, he won big places like Pas de Calais and in Provence (esp. Marseille)...Giscard on the other hand did best in Brittany and in Paris itself...now that is all reversed  
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Zinneke
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« Reply #17 on: April 16, 2017, 12:05:24 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2017, 12:10:03 PM by Rogier »

Its interesting how much French electoral geography has changed. When Mitterrand beat Giscard narrowly in 1981, he won big places like Pas de Calais and in Provence (esp. Marseille)...Giscard on the other hand did best in Brittany and in Paris itself...now that is all reversed  

It can be explained as Macron seems to be a 'successor' to Giscard more than 1981 Mitterand, at least in rhetoric. Pro-EU, liberal, cosmopolitan. Basically the benefactors of the ordo-liberal system, which includes the CAP subsidies. '81 Mitterand was mainly courting the 2nd round PCF vote. On the other hand I think this election really demonstrates how French political consciousness has changed, and its political landscape with it, making the comparison moot.

Anyway, I think parochial boy's predictions are the closest I would go for, except for Fillon. His will be somewhere rural in Alsace-Lorraine, or Sarthe as Kringla says for a home effect. Its true that he has the Estrosi effect in Alpes-Maritimes but I think Le Pen will do really well in the first round there.

I think Mélenchon's best will be Seine-Saint-Denis but paradoxically in the legislatives his France Insoumise candidate will have their work cut out in Montreuil against the Greens and PCF, who are both running candidates against him. The radical left need to get their sh**t together.
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Zanas
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« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2017, 05:31:35 AM »
« Edited: April 18, 2017, 07:13:43 AM by Watermelon sin Jamón »

Le Pen : one of Vaucluse, Var, Haute-Marne, Aisne. Y'all say Vaucluse, but I just went and saw that Bompard had endorsed Fillon in the primary runoff. Since then, I've seen nothing, but you can count on the Bompard clan to do anything they can to undermine a potential FN victory. Of course, the Bompard influence is not what it used to be, so maybe it won't matter anywhere else than in Orange and Bollène, if anywhere. So I'd say Aisne.

Macron : Paris, I don't see any other who could fit that well.

Fillon : Sarthe, obviously. Var, Alpes-Maritimes, Yvelines, Vendée and Loir-et-Cher should also be good fits.

Mélenchon : y'all say Seine-Saint-Denis, but I'd guess he'll get fierce competition from Hamon, Arthaud and Poutou there. I'd say Mélenchon polls better in Puy-de-Dôme and maybe even Val-de-Marne than Seine-Saint-Denis. So I'll say Puy-de-Dôme.

Hamon : Paris, Finistère or Seine-Saint-Denis. Pick one : Finistère.

Dupont-Aignan : Essonne, obviously.

Poutou : Seine-Saint-Denis. Gironde (home effect) and Territoire-de-Belfort (because Peugeot workers) should be up there too.

Lassalle : maybe the easiest of them all : Pyrénées-Atlantiques.

Arthaud : see Poutou, without Gironde.

Asselineau : I'm gonna make an educated guess and say Sarthe, which was their best performance in the régionales 2015 as far as I can tell. Cher, Mayenne and Marne were good fits as well.

Cheminade : who gives a fukc ? I'll say Haut-Rhin, which seems to have been his best result in 2012 with 0,33%, because why the hell not.

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parochial boy
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« Reply #19 on: April 18, 2017, 11:57:15 AM »

I disagree that Sarthe will be Fillon's best. Remember that it voted Hollande in 2012, and that Le Mans is a strongly left wing university city. Somewhere in Alsace is a good shout, but it's too pro-EU. So I'm sticking with Alpes-Maritimes.

Write in Somme for giving a very high score to Mélenchon or Le Pen, given the whole saga over the Whirlpool factory in Amiens closing
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #20 on: April 18, 2017, 01:10:55 PM »

Yeah, Sarthe is far too boboish these days to be Fillon's best Department. It might be in the top 10, but no more than that.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #21 on: April 18, 2017, 02:25:35 PM »

He also comes from the far west from the department, there is no reason for him to have personnal votes coming from the other side of the department.
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Zanas
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« Reply #22 on: April 18, 2017, 03:32:06 PM »

Mayenne could do the trick then, or Maine-et-Loire.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #23 on: April 24, 2017, 01:00:15 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 01:10:59 PM by MaxQue »

Winners:

Macron: Paris
Le Pen: Aisne
Filion: Sarthe (so, I was wrong), French Polynesia with overseas
Mélenchon: Seine-Saint-Denis (Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon with overseas (WTF))
Hamon: Finistère (Wallis-et-Futuna with overseas)
Dupont-Aignan: Essonne (but Haut-Rhin was surprisingly close)
Lassalle: Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Poutou: Creuse (Guyane with overseas)
Asselineau: Seine-Saint-Denis (Nouvelle-Calédonie with overseas)
Arthaud: Indre (Martinique with overseas)
Cheminade: Haute-Corse (Mayotte with overseas)
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Kringla Heimsins
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« Reply #24 on: April 24, 2017, 01:20:31 PM »

Fillon didn't even win Vendée, I'm surprised.
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