The Rage

[NHI]

Bill Clinton's electoral defeat over President George H.W. Bush was a moment of reckoning for the Republican Party establishment. After twelve years at the top, the party now found itself at its lowest point since the election of '32. Republican leaders reflected over the past campaign. They pondered the what-ifs. They examined the miss opportunity. They looked to the future with increasing dread. Despite,
 winning the Presidency with only 43% of the vote, the election marked the most swift rejection of a sitting rejection of a sitting President in decades.

Democrats now controlled Congress. They won the Presidency. The ride was only beginning.

Yet, as soon as it began, the ride stopped. In '94 Democrats lost both the House and the Senate following the Republican Revolution, fueled by Newt Gingrich, who became Speaker of the House. A party reenergized by the Contract with a America and intense grassroots support, took over the Nation's Capitol with a clear agenda: To shrink government, and defeat Bill Clinton.

The first part was simple. Clinton, now politically weakened and vulnerable had no choice but to bow to the Republicans. The second part, however; finding a candidate capable to defeating Bill Clinton was the real challenge. The eight candidates vying for the Republican Nomination seemed unlikely nominees.

Former General Colin Powell, once recruited and often mentioned as a Presidential candidate ruled out a run in '95, paving the way for Kansas Senator Bob Dole; the establishment choice and the runner up to George Bush in '88. But to the conservative base Dole was old, tried and an insider. The conservative base craved an outsider. They craved a reformer. They wanted a rabble rouser. They wanted the opposite of Bill Clinton.

Republican candidates debate in NH.

The field was fractured in '95. Dole tried to navigate a changing political landscape; while Pat Buchanan tried to recapture the magic of his '92 primary campaign against President Bush, which resulted in a strong showing in New Hampshire. Still, there were other candidates, Phil Gramm of Texas, Lamar Alexander of Tennessee and multi-millionaire publisher Steve Forbes. Still, Republicans were unsure who would be their savior, if one even existed in the current field.

The Divide between moderate and conservative Republicans were widening, with many base voters rejecting the calls from the establishment to rally around the consensus choice of Bob Dole. To many people, Bob Dole was no different than Bill Clinton, and moreover a carbon copy of George Bush.

To many activist and conservatives Pat Buchanan represented the anger of the party and the desire to put one of their own up against Bill Clinton. To defeat the Man from Hope, many conservatives believed a genuine outsider was needed, and one would take the fight to Clinton in a mono-e-mono debate. Still, Buchanan struggled in the polls.

Dole staked his Presidential hopes on a repeat of his win in the Iowa Caucuses. He beat Bush in '88,
and he and his team believed they could beat Buchanan too. But the party base had changed. The grassroots which propelled him to win in '88, had shifted to a more hostile, hot tempered conservative base, which a flair for disruption. To Iowans, no other candidate fit the bill, than Buchanan.

Buchanan speaks to his supporters in '96, following his win in Iowa.

As a result, in the Iowa Caucus, Senator Bob Dole suffered a surprise upset. Despite outspending Buchanan by a margin of 3-1, the former columnist and radio personality, prevailed defeating Dole 27% to 24%.

A saddened Bob Dole suspends his campaign after losing Iowa in an upset to Pat Buchanan.

Bob Dole's surprise defeat in Iowa, ended his Presidential campaign in '96. The Kansas Senator withdrew from the race after addressing supporters in Iowa. The early leading contender from the race gone, the field was wide open, with many other candidates looking to fill the vacuum left by Dole's departure. The first candidate to seize on the establishment mantle was Lamar Alexander, who quickly denounced Pat Buchanan as 'an extremist, an isolationist', while Steve Forbes attacked Buchanan for being "too far out of the mainstream".

To Buchanan and his supporters this was the perfect storm. A surprise win in Iowa, fueled them as they headed into New Hampshire, where a strong base of support awaited him. "They're against us,
 because they know," Buchanan told supporters in Concord, NH following his win in Iowa. "They know I'm the only person who will speak the truth and stand up to the corruption plaguing Washington, DC!"


The flamethrower was dogged by his Republican rivals, but to no success. No candidate had the organization or strength of Buchanan in New Hampshire, which propelled the outspoken conservative to win the Granite State Primary in a blowout. His double digit win propelled him to the top of the pack, granting him the label, (albeit a reluctant one among the establishment), of frontrunner!

Buchanan speaks to supporters in New Hampshire, after winning the state with 37% of the vote.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Looking forward to this one!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Run Pat Run!

[Kingpoleon]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but:

Go Forbes Go!

[Pericles]

LAMAR!

[America Needs R'hllor]

LAMAR!

[NHI]

Pat Buchanan's shocking upset in Iowa and blowout win in New Hampshire threw the Republican establishment into a tailspin of fury and anxiety. The firebrand conservative, with protectionist views on trade and isolationism on foreign policy scared moderates and party elders who feared nominating Buchanan would deliver President Bill Clinton a landslide and quite possibly return Democrats control of Congress.

Bob Dole's exit from the primary left the establishment lane wide open, for one of the remaining candidates not named Buchanan to emerge. Phil Gram of Texas, who hoped to co-op both the establishment and grassroots wings fizzled after a poor showing in Iowa. Steve Forbes, who ran partially as an outsider failed to gain much traction in the early states, despite outspending his rivals by a margin of 2-1.

This left Lamar Alexander, the former Governor of Tennessee and Education Secretary. With his trademark plaid shirt bold exclamation on all of his signage Alexander hoped to rally up the conservative base, while uniting all moderates and establishment Republicans. The task was monumental. He finished second to Buchanan in New Hampshire, but only with 25% of the vote.

Buchanan, who entered the next leg of the Presidential primary with momentum, following wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the campaign then turned to Arizona and Delaware; both states where Steve Forbes spent a great deal of money in advertising.

Forbes lost DE, despite outspending his opponents, but won AZ with 34% of the vote.

In the Delaware Primary, Alexander eked out a narrow win, beating Forbes 33% to 30%. The win gave Alexander some needed momentum heading into the next contests. However, in AZ Forbes' spending helped push him over the top. He defeated Buchanan 34% to 31%.

Alexander campaigns in North Dakota. He won win the state with 37% of the vote.

Alexander, who targeted the four states voting on February 27, came up short in Arizona, and narrowly won Delaware, but prevailed in the North Dakota primary, beating Buchanan 37% to 34%.
 Buchanan, could only claim one win on the 27th; South Dakota, where he won with 41% over Alexander's 35%.

The next big hurdle for the GOP was South Carolina. Buchanan surged to the lead following Iowa and New Hampshire, but Alexander made a strong play for the state; given the proximity to his home state of Tennessee. Following the February 27 vote, polls showed Buchanan and Alexander running neck-and-neck. 37% to 37%.

[Oppo]

Great start; a Dole loss in Iowa is a really underused POD.

[mencken]

Great start; a Dole loss in Iowa is a really underused POD.

Would he have really dropped out as a result though?

[Kingpoleon]

Come Back Forbes!

[Oppo]

Great start; a Dole loss in Iowa is a really underused POD.

Would he have really dropped out as a result though?

He won in 1988 by twelve points. That, along with very heavily being the favorite for the nomination would kill a campaign. His backers would almost immediately switch to Alexander. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=76e8TOaMxlM

[NHI]

Pat Buchanan. Steve Forbes. Lamar Alexander. The three leading and remaining contenders for the Republican nomination. Buchanan had stunned the political establishment in both parties by winning Iowa; forced longtime front runner Bob Dole from the race. Buchanan then won a double digit win in New Hampshire.

Forbes continued to pour his own money into the race. He had won the Arizona primary, but had failed to make any more traction. Alexander, on the other hand was on the rise, or seemingly so. He was running neck-and-neck with Buchanan in South Carolina, the next state to vote. Buchanan's campaign believed a win in the state, which had determined the Republican nominee for the last number of cycles would put him with unstoppable momentum and a clear path to win the nomination.

Alexander hoped his proximity to South Carolina would give him an edge over Buchanan, but as the results started to trickle in, it became increasingly clear Buchanan's populist rage was pushing him near the finish line, but it remained close throughout much of the night. 

South Carolina Republican Primary: 55% Reported

Buchanan: 39.02%

Alexander: 38.00%

Forbes: 21.98%

Buchanan speaks early, declaring victory despite an uncalled race in South Carolina

Buchanan's campaign made a preemptive call to address supporters before the results were finalized. He prevailed in the Wyoming Caucuses with 39.9% to Forbes' 30.6%. Alexander decided to wait before speaking to supporters. Finally a little after midnight South Carolina was projected for Buchanan, but by the narrowest margins.

South Carolina Republican Primary: 100% Reported

Buchanan: 39.65%

Alexander: 39.45%

Forbes: 19.95%

Buchanan's win in South Carolina would propel his campaign forward into the coming states of Super Tuesday, where he swept much of the south, while moderates and establishment folks continued to pour money and effort into turning Lamar Alexander, into Lamar Alexander! The former Tennessee Governor, who on the campaign repeated the slogan: ABC. "Alexander beats Clinton" hoped to remind voters of Buchanan's extremism and inability to go toe-toe with President Clinton.

Forbes exited the race a poor showing in the New York Primary, which Alexander won with 44% of the vote. Buchanan finished second with 37%. Still, the big prize was seen as Florida, which voted five days later.

Alexander received some early excitement, when he prevailed over Buchanan in the Missouri Caucus, winning with 47% of the vote.

On March 12th, a slew of states voted from the south to the west. Alexander picked up his home state of Tennessee and narrowly dispatched with Buchanan in Louisiana. Buchanan prevailed as expected in Mississippi, Oklahoma and Texas. In the Lone Star State, Buchanan toppled Buchanan with 50% of the vote. Alexander won Oregon, but all eyes remained in Florida. Despite having the support of the establishment, Buchanan was polling strong against Alexander.

Early results showed a Buchanan surged, but the margins tightened as more results trickled in from the more urban and populated areas of the state. Finally, a little before midnight with 97% of the vote tallied Alexander was declared the winner. His margin was small, but nevertheless a win. 49.06% to 48.01%

The loss in Florida would prove non-detrimental to Buchanan who recovered by March 19th to win both Michigan and Ohio with 51% and 49% of the vote respectively. Despite, a sense of GOP consolidation around Alexander, Buchanan was a force to be reckon with in 1996, and his inability to be put away dragged on the primary till the bitter end.

Alexander and Buchanan would battle it out for the nomination until the final primary in June. Alexander would edge out the conservative firebrand in the big state of California (51.05% - 47.99%)
 but he failed to secure enough delegates to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot; meaning it was very likely the 1996 Republican Convention would be a brokered battle for the nomination and the heart and soul of the GOP.

Lamar Alexander: 8,443,101 -- 46.88%

Patrick J. Buchanan: 8,314,753 -- 46.17%

Steve Forbes: 1,046,009 -- 5.80%

Other: 204,756 -- 1.15%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Alexander/Forbes 1996?
Great timeline, as always!

[NHI]

The Republican establishment rallied to Lamar Alexander by the time of their convention in San Diego.
 Buchanan and his supporters threatened a walkout, and some did, but the waters were calmed slightly with the Vice Presidential nomination of Steve Forbes. In an final show of party unity, Pat Buchanan would deliver the nominating speech of his one-time rival, Lamar Alexander. A highly controversial move,
 but certainly one aimed at holding the party together as it prepared to take on President Bill Clinton.

Buchanan blasted the incumbent President in his a fiery nominating speech, which bordered on an acceptance speech. "Bill Clinton needs to be run out of town, along with his Lady McBeth wife, Lady Hillary!"

Lamar Alexander would accept the Republican and in his speech, he tapped into the rage felt by many of the Republican base voters, but also with a call to unity aimed at moderates. "Bill Clinton has failed to deliver. He tries to take credit for the good economy and management of government, but the one's responsible for this era of good feeling, you guessed it: Republicans!"

Alexander, also played up his strengths as an outsider. "I'm not from Washington, DC. I'm not part of that crowd. Steve Forbes and I come from the real world with real world experience and that's what we're going to bring to Washington, because it is a mess and it needs to be fixed up right and fixed up now!"  His speech was praised for its brevity and appeal to moderates, but many wondered if the Former Tennessee Governor stood a chance against the incumbent President.

To some, the advantage of Alexander was two-fold: One he came from the south; Al Gore's home state of Tennessee, which gave him a competitive edge against Clinton. Two: His running mate of Steve Forbes was praised by many in the conservative base who liked the idea of two outsiders running to fix Washington. Early polls after the convention showed a uniting Republican Party, and slight bump, but Alexander still trailed the President in public opinion polls.

CLINTON: 50%
ALEXANDER: 42%
UNDECIDED: 8%

Battleground Polls:

OH: +7
CLINTON: 48%
ALEXANDER: 41%

FL: +5
CLINTON: 47%
ALEXANDER: 42%

TN: +4
ALEXANDER: 49%
CLINTON: 45%

MO: +6
CLINTON: 47%
ALEXANDER: 41%

KY: +5
CLINTON: 48%
ALEXANDER: 43%

LA: +4
CLINTON: 48%
ALEXANDER: 44%

PA: +6
CLINTON: 47%
ALEXANDER: 41%

NH: +7
CLINTON: 47%
ALEXANDER: 40%

WI: +5
CLINTON: 46%
ALEXANDER: 41%

IA: +6
CLINTON: 46%
ALEXANDER: 40%

NJ: +8
CLINTON: 49%
ALEXANDER: 41%

MI: +6
CLINTON: 47%
ALEXANDER: 42%

IL: +7
CLINTON: 47%
ALEXANDER: 40%

GA: +3
ALEXANDER: 47%
CLINTON: 44%

Based on Polling Averages:

CLINTON: 360 (50%)

ALEXANDER: 178 (42%)

[NHI]

Lamar Alexander hit the road following the Republican convention; after adopting much of Steve Forbes' tax plan he spent time traveling the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.
Alexander knew, if he had any hopes of defeating Bill Clinton, his victory depended on winning over voters in the Midwest. His message of fixing Washington and tax reform were popular, but the road was uncertain.

Bill Clinton had effectively moved to the political center in '96. His centrist approach to governing boosted his approval ratings to near record highs for a President seeking reelection. The strong American economy and peace abroad boded well for the Arkansas Democrat, who hoped to become the first one reelected since FDR, and the first Democrat to win a clear majority in the popular vote since LBJ.

Still, among the grassroots of the Republican Party a rage fueled. They despised Clinton and his policies. His personal scandals, his ethical scandals, his evolution on issues... they wanted him out in '97, and their rage was reaching a fever pitch, but Alexander hardly seemed suited to be the candidate of change they so desperately wanted.

Alexander slowly rose in the poll, but Clinton maintained his edge nationally and in the key states needed to win the Presidency. Speaking from the side, one-time rival Pat Buchanan seemed to chide Alexander for "not taking the fight to Clinton" and allowing "the Democrat to define him and the race." When asked if it was too late for The Tennessee Republican Buchanan held out hope. "He still has time, but time is not on his side."

CLINTON: 51%
ALEXANDER: 43%

Clinton outmatches Alexander in their two debates.

To aides VP nominee Steve Forbes blasted Alexander for failing to talk much about tax reform. "It's a winning issue!"

As funds dried up, Alexander took to getting as much free advertisement as he could find. In New Hampshire, following a similar stunt during the primary, he walked from Concord to Portsmouth, meeting voters along the way, but the events failed to move the needle in the Granite State and across the nation.

Privately, most Republicans had given up on Alexander. Buchanan, the firebrand conservative lamented to his closest friends "the election is over, we had our chance and we blew it." No doubt referring to what he believed was a mistake by the GOP establishment to nominate Alexander over him; Buchanan quietly began laying the groundwork for a third presidential bid, just as votes were cast in the November 1996 election.

Pres. Clinton & his family, after being reelected in a sweeping victory.

On Election Night, the polls across the country proved correct: Bill Clinton easily won reelection, defeating Lamar Alexander handily and sending conservatives into convulsions and grassroots Republicans into an unmitigated fury. Alexander failed to dent Clinton, returning only the states of Tenneessee Georgia and Montana to the Republican column, while ceding Florida to the President (49.6% to 48.0%). Clinton, also succeeded in garnering 51% of the popular vote; the first Democrat since LBJ to win an outright majority.

Republicans retained control of Congress, but Democrats made some inroads, furthering the Republican splinter. Two camps arose following the defeat: One was to blame Buchanan and his followers; Two: To blame moderates for nominating a weak candidate. The divide would fester on for years and the rage would continue to reach a boiling point.

In the end Lamar provded even he did not know his ABCs. The result: Clinton beats Alexander was the headline, on the day after the election.

✓ President Bill Clinton: 368 (52.7%)

Former Governor Lamar Alexander: 170 (43.4%)

Other: 0 (3.9%)

Watching the election returns at his home, Buchanan, surrounded by his family looked to the screen as the results came in. "We'll get 'em next time," he told them. "There's always a next time."
 

[NHI]

Epilogue:

The fever broke, among the grassroots in 2000; following the election, but not in the direction many expected it to go. Pat Buchanan would run for the Republican nomination again, but would drop out early after George W. Bush rocketed to the top and secured the party's title. He flirted with running as an independent or seeking the Reform Party, but ultimately backed out in favor of Donald Trump who entered the 2000 race by declaring he was taking on both the Democrats and Republicans and promised to "lead a new way for America". The billionaire real estate mogul tapped into the populist rage and fury building since the election and reelection of Bill Clinton and planned to exploit it for all he could, in order to win the Presidency.

As the country came to grips with its populist fury, the side expected to come out the winner were the Democrats. Vice President Al Gore was a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination, but the Lewinsky Scandal had tainted him indirectly and many Democrats, especially the liberal base were desperate for an alternative to Clinton's robotic VP. The candidate: Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone.

Wellstone, a liberal icon defied expectations by beating the Vice President in Iowa (55% to 44%), and then again in New Hampshire, (52% to 47%). The result caused the collapse in the party establishment and saw the Minnesota Senator rise to accept his party's nomination later that summer. 

On the Republican side was George W. Bush. On the Democratic side was Paul Wellstone. A conservative and liberal. In the middle was Donald Trump. A trouble maker and the person who was able to exploit the rage and fury in the country to not only defy expectations, but actually win the Presidency of the United States.

The race largely shifted away from Bush, who was boxed out by the populist candidacy of Trump and the liberal movement of Wellstone. On Election Night, the New York Billionaire and the Minnesota liberal battled it out, while the Texas Republican performed worse than Alexander had four years earlier.

The result of the 2000 election. A shift; a major shift across the country. Populism was on the rise, conservatism was on the decline and liberalism would prove to be the counter to the fury, which would define the next eight years.

✓ Businessman Donald J. Trump: 301 (35.7%)

Senator Paul Wellstone: 152 (33.6%)

Governor George W. Bush: 85 (29.6%)

Other: 0 (1.1%)