How will these states be identified in 2032?

[TheSaint250]

How do you think the following states will be generally identified in the 2032 presidential election? (Example: Arkansas: Safe R)

-Arizona
-Colorado
-New Mexico
-Virginia
-Florida
-Alaska
-Texas
-South Carolina
-Georgia
-Utah
-Montana
-Ohio
-Iowa
-North Carolina
-Indiana
-Minnesota
-Wisconsin
-Michigan
-Oregon
-New Hampshire
-Nevada
-Pennsylvania
-Connecticut
-Rhode Island
-Maine

Since the list is so lengthy, pick only a few if you wish to do so.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Assuming a close election, since we have no idea what the climate of 2032 will be
-Arizona: Tilt D
-Colorado: Lean D
-New Mexico: Likely D
-Virginia: Lean D
-Florida: Tossup
-Alaska: Tilt R
-Texas: Lean R
-South Carolina: Safe R
-Georgia: Tilt R
-Utah: Safe R
-Montana: Likely R
-Ohio: Lean R
-Iowa: Likely R
-North Carolina: Tossup
-Indiana: Safe R
-Minnesota: Tilt R
-Wisconsin: Lean R
-Michigan: Tossup
-Oregon: Safe D
-New Hampshire: Tossup
-Nevada: Lean D
-Pennsylvania: Tilt R
-Connecticut: Lean D
-Rhode Island: Likely D
-Maine: Tossup (ME-1: Safe D, ME-2: Safe R)

[Libertarian in Name Only]

Arizona - Tossup
-Colorado - Likely D
-New Mexico - Likely D
-Virginia - Likely D
-Florida - Tossup
-Alaska - Lean R
-Texas - Lean R
-South Carolina - Likely R
-Georgia - Tossup
-Utah - Safe R
-Montana - Safe R
-Ohio - Lean R
-Iowa - Likely R
-North Carolina - Tossup
-Indiana - Safe R
-Minnesota - Tossup
-Wisconsin - Tossup
-Michigan - Tossup
-Oregon - Safe D
-New Hampshire - Tossup
-Nevada - Likely D
-Pennsylvania - Tossup
-Connecticut - Likely D
-Rhode Island - Likely D
-Maine - Lean D

[cvparty]

-Arizona - lean D
-Colorado - likely D
-New Mexico - lean D
-Virginia - likely D
-Florida - tossup
-Alaska - lean R
-Texas - tossup
-South Carolina - lean R
-Georgia - lean D
-Utah - safe R
-Montana - likely R
-Ohio - lean R
-Iowa - likely R
-North Carolina - lean D
-Indiana - likely R
-Minnesota - tossup
-Wisconsin - tossup
-Michigan - tossup
-Oregon - lean D
-New Hampshire - tossup
-Nevada - likely D
-Pennsylvania - tossup
-Connecticut - lean D
-Rhode Island - lean D
-Maine - lean R

[Pragmatic Conservative]

-Arizona Lean D
-Colorado Lean D
-New Mexico Safe D
-Virginia Likley D
-Florida Lean D
-Alaska Tossup
-Texas Lean R
-South Carolina Lean R
-Georgia Lean D
-Utah Likley R
-Montana Safe R
-Ohio Lean R
-Iowa Likley R
-North Carolina Lean D
-Indiana Likley R
-Minnesota Tossup
-Wisconsin Lean R
-Michigan Tossup
-Oregon Lean D
-New Hampshire Lean R
-Nevada Likley D
-Pennsylvania Tossup
-Connecticut Lean D
-Rhode Island Likley D
-Maine Lean R

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R

Iowa

Likely R

South Carolina
Utah
Montana
Ohio
Indiana
Wisconsin
Maine

Lean R

Alaska
Michigan

Tossup

Florida
Texas
North Carolina
Minnesota
Pennsylvania

Lean D

Arizona
Rhode Island

Likely D

New Mexico
Nevada

Safe D

Virginia
Colorado
Georgia
Oregon
New Hampshire
Connecticut

[The_Doctor]

Generally ...

-Arizona Lean D
-Colorado Safe D D
-New Mexico Safe D
-Virginia Safe Lean
-Florida Swing
-Alaska Swing
-Texas Swing/Lean D
-South Carolina Lean R
-Georgia Lean D
-Utah Safe R
-Montana Lean R
-Ohio Swing (without the home state advantage for President Cordray)
-Iowa Swing
-North Carolina Lean D
-Indiana Lean R
-Minnesota Likely D
-Wisconsin Swing
-Michigan Lean D
-Oregon Likely D
-New Hampshire Likely D
-Nevada Safe D
-Pennsylvania Likely D
-Connecticut Lean D
-Rhode Island Lean D
-Maine Lean D

[Tartarus Sauce]

Arizona: Lean D
Colorado: Safe D
New Mexico: Likely/Safe D
Virginia: Safe D
Florida: Tossup
Alaska: Lean/Likely R
Texas Tossup/Tilt R/Lean R
South Carolina: Lean/Likely R
Georgia: Lean D
Utah: Safe R
Montana: Likely R
Ohio: Tossup/Lean R
Iowa: Lean R
North Carolina: Lean D
Indiana: Likely R
Minnesota: Lean D
Wisconsin: Tossup/Lean R
Michigan: Tossup/Tilt D
Oregon: Safe D
New Hampshire: Lean D
Nevada: Likely D/Safe D
Pennsylvania: Tilt D/Lean D
Connecticut: Likely D
Rhode Island: Likely D
Maine: Tossup/Tilt D

[libertpaulian]

Assuming the parties and trends stay the same:

-Arizona: Pure Tossup
-Colorado: Lean D
-New Mexico: Likely D
-Virginia: Lean-to-Likely D
-Florida: Pure Tossup
-Alaska: Lean R
-Texas: Lean R
-South Carolina: Likely R
-Georgia: Tossup/Tilt D
-Utah: Likely R
-Montana: Likely R
-Ohio: Tossup/Tilt R
-Iowa: Lean R
-North Carolina: Pure Tossup
-Indiana: Likely R
-Minnesota: Pure Tossup
-Wisconsin: Pure Tossup
-Michigan: Tossup
-Oregon: Lean-to-Likely D
-New Hampshire: Pure Tossup
-Nevada: Tilt D
-Pennsylvania: Tossup
-Connecticut: Likely D
-Rhode Island: Likely D
-Maine: Tossup

[Ronnie]

-Arizona - Tossup
-Colorado - Lean D
-New Mexico - Lean D
-Virginia - Likely D
-Florida - Tilt R
-Alaska - Lean R
-Texas - Lean R
-South Carolina - Likely R
-Georgia - Lean D
-Utah - Safe R
-Montana - Safe R
-Ohio - Lean R
-Iowa - Likely R
-North Carolina - Tossup
-Indiana - Safe R
-Minnesota - Tilt R
-Wisconsin - Tilt R
-Michigan - Tilt D
-Oregon - Safe D
-New Hampshire - Tossup
-Nevada - Lean D
-Pennsylvania - Tossup
-Connecticut - Likely D
-Rhode Island - Likely D
-Maine - Tossup

[RINO Tom]

Not seeing why anyone thinks SC is moving toward the Dems anytime soon.  Its suburban areas vote to the right of its rural areas, and those are the ones that are growing.  It's already not a very rural state, and it's solidly Republican.

[Xing]

-Arizona: Toss-Up
-Colorado: Likely D
-New Mexico: Safe D
-Virginia: Likely D
-Florida: Toss-Up
-Alaska: Lean R
-Texas: Likely R
-South Carolina: Likely R
-Georgia: Lean D
-Utah: Safe R
-Montana: Likely R
-Ohio: Likely R
-Iowa: Likely R
-North Carolina: Tilt D
-Indiana: Safe R
-Minnesota: Tilt R
-Wisconsin: Tilt R
-Michigan: Toss-Up
-Oregon: Safe D (why do people think Oregon is going to trend R?)
-New Hampshire: Toss-Up
-Nevada: Likely D
-Pennsylvania: Lean R
-Connecticut: Safe D
-Rhode Island: Safe D
-Maine: Lean D

[TheSaint250]

Just wondering: what is everyone's justification for putting Alaska as only Lean R?

[RINO Tom]

Just wondering: what is everyone's justification for putting Alaska as only Lean R?

I'll echo this ... are the rural/Democratic areas actually growing faster than the more populated/Republican counties?  This isn't a Georgia situation...

[Xing]

Just wondering: what is everyone's justification for putting Alaska as only Lean R?

I'll echo this ... are the rural/Democratic areas actually growing faster than the more populated/Republican counties?  This isn't a Georgia situation...

Part of it is that rural Alaska leaning Democratic is a fairly recent development. Also, some of Alaska's growth has been due to people from the West Coast moving in. To my knowledge, most areas in Alaska are less Republican than they used to be. This trend might not continue, but many of us are assuming that it will.

[TheSaint250]

Just wondering: what is everyone's justification for putting Alaska as only Lean R?

I'll echo this ... are the rural/Democratic areas actually growing faster than the more populated/Republican counties?  This isn't a Georgia situation...

Part of it is that rural Alaska leaning Democratic is a fairly recent development. Also, some of Alaska's growth has been due to people from the West Coast moving in. To my knowledge, most areas in Alaska are less Republican than they used to be. This trend might not continue, but many of us are assuming that it will.

Ok.  I've mainly been focusing on presidential elections and while I see areas, especially the north, are trending quite surprisingly Democratic (for a state many, like I, just associate with the Republican Party), I guess I just kind of thought it will stay Republican until a major realignment since Republican presidential candidates have performed about the same.

[Young Moderate Republican]

This only applies if the trends established in 2016 continue. That is, the GOP casts aside staunch Reaganism in order to appeal to even more white voters while the Dems continue to offset this loss with their growing coalition of minorities.

-Arizona: Tilt D
-Colorado: Likely D
-New Mexico: Safe D
-Virginia: Likely D
-Florida: Tilt D/Tossup
-Alaska: Likely R
-Texas: Tilt R/Tossup
-South Carolina: Lean R
-Georgia: Tilt D/Tossup
-Utah: Safe R
-Montana: Safe R
-Ohio: Likely R
-Iowa: Safe R
-North Carolina: Tilt D/Tossup
-Indiana: Safe R
-Minnesota: Lean R
-Wisconsin: Lean R
-Michigan: Tilt R/Tossup
-Oregon: Lean  D
-New Hampshire: Lean R
-Nevada: Likely D
-Pennsylvania: Lean R
-Connecticut: Pure Tossup
-Rhode Island: Pure Tossup
-Maine: Lean R

Again, I base this on the share of minority voters (particularly hispanics) and the GOP continuing Trump's trend away from Reaganism and a heavy evangelical influence. I think a more secular and less anti government GOP  begins regaining ground in the Northeast and Midwest that were lost in the southern strategy while the Dems counter with gains in the south and southwest as the minority share of the population continues to grow. This might lead to the GOP being competitive in heavily white states like Connecticut, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Maine while Dems become competitive in states like Texas, Georgia and Arizona. It could mean that for the first time since the 1980's, most of the electoral map becomes competitive again. It's all speculation at this point, of course.

[Strudelcutie4427]

-Arizona (Toss-up/Tilt D)
-Colorado (Likely D)
-New Mexico (Lean D)
-Virginia (Safe D)
-Florida (Toss-up)
-Alaska (Likely R)
-Texas (Likely R)
-South Carolina (Safe R)
-Georgia (Toss-up)
-Utah (Safe R)
-Montana (Safe R)
-Ohio (Lean R)
-Iowa (Likely R)
-North Carolina (Toss-up)
-Indiana (Likely R)
-Minnesota (Toss-up)
-Wisconsin (Toss-up)
-Michigan (Toss-up)
-Oregon (Likely D)
-New Hampshire (Toss-up)
-Nevada (Lean D)
-Pennsylvania (Toss-up)
-Connecticut (Likely D)
-Rhode Island (Safe D)
-Maine (Toss-up)

[TheSaint250]

-Arizona: Lean D
-Colorado: Safe D
-New Mexico: Safe D
-Virginia: Likely D
-Florida: Tossup
-Alaska: Safe R
-Texas: Tossup/Tilt R/Lean R
-South Carolina: Safe R
-Georgia: Tossup/Tilt R
-Utah: Safe R
-Montana: Safe R
-Ohio: Likely R
-Iowa: Likely R
-North Carolina: Tossup/Tilt D
-Indiana: Safe R
-Minnesota: Tossup/Tilt R
-Wisconsin: Lean R
-Michigan: Tossup/Tilt R
-Oregon: Safe D
-New Hampshire: Tossup/Lean D
-Nevada: Lean D/Likely D
-Pennsylvania: Tossup/Tilt D
-Connecticut:Likely D/Safe D
-Rhode Island: Likely D/Safe D
-Maine (statewide): Tossup
   -Maine's 1st: Safe D
   -Maine's 2nd: Likely R/Safe R

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

-Alaska - Safe R
-Arizona- Tossup/Tilt R
-Colorado- Likely D
-Connecticut - Tossup
-Florida - tossup
-Georgia - Likely D
-Indiana - Safe R
-Iowa - Safe R
-Maine - Likely R
-Michigan - Tossup/Tilt R
-Minnesota - Lean R
-Nevada - Likely D
-New Hampshire - Likely R OMG OMG OMG
-New Mexico - Likely D
-North Carolina - Tossup/Tilt D
-Ohio - Likely R
-Oregon - Likely D
-Pennsylvania - Likely R
-Rhode Island - Lean D
-South Carolina - Lean R
-Texas - Lean D
-Utah - Safe R
-Virginia - Likely D
-Wisconsin - Likely R

[heatcharger]

-Connecticut - Tossup

Why would Connecticut be a tossup? Trump lost it by more than Bush did.

[RINO Tom]

-Connecticut - Tossup

Why would Connecticut be a tossup? Trump lost it by more than Bush did.

But aren't these threads all about totally guessing results decades from now??  Haha, you gotta throw a headline grabber in there, or it's just boring!

[Strudelcutie4427]

-Connecticut - Tossup

Why would Connecticut be a tossup? Trump lost it by more than Bush did.

Bush had connections to CT. I think he was born in new haven. And I doubt it'll be a toss up either given the high black population in the Hartford area and the rich city types in Fairfield county. Best republicans can hope for are the house seats in district 2 and 5

[RINO Tom]

-Connecticut - Tossup

Why would Connecticut be a tossup? Trump lost it by more than Bush did.

Bush had connections to CT. I think he was born in new haven. And I doubt it'll be a toss up either given the high black population in the Hartford area and the rich city types in Fairfield county. Best republicans can hope for are the house seats in district 2 and 5

Ah, you mean our historic base in the state and the easiest voters to win back??

[Virginiá]

Bush had connections to CT. I think he was born in new haven. And I doubt it'll be a toss up either given the high black population in the Hartford area and the rich city types in Fairfield county. Best republicans can hope for are the house seats in district 2 and 5

Does that actually matter, though? I mean how many residents actually know GWB was born in CT? And out of those people, how many would actually base their vote on such a thing like that? I do think there can be a home state effect, but that's generally for politicians who actually served in the state and are well-known and well-liked there. Bush wasn't raised in Connecticut, nor did he serve as a politician there. It's just kind of a random fact about his history.