Is there a consistently anti-incumbent subset of voters?

[Jesus save us]

Ie. voters who almost always vote against the incumbent presidents party(but not normally for a third party). Their recent voting record would be Bush-Kerry-Obama-Romney-Trump.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Maybe someone in Michigan

[twenty42]

The most important swing states have a tendency to vote against the incumbent party after two terms. FL and OH voted against the incumbent party in 2000, 2008, and 2016 while voting for the incumbent president in 1996, 2004, and 2012. More recently, IA voted against the incumbent party in 2008 and 2016 while voting for the incumbent president in 2004 and 2012. NC has voted against the incumbent president/party in the last three elections. NV voted against the incumbent party in 2000 and 2008 and for the incumbent president in 2004 and 2012.

All this being said, it would stand to reason that there have to be quite a few voters in these states who tend to vote for the "change" candidate, regardless of party.

[SingingAnalyst]

Montana.
1980: Carter 32% (9% below national average)
1984 and 1988: near national average
1992: Perot 26% (7% above NA)
1996: Clinton 41% (8% below NA)
2000: Gore 33% (15% below NA; lots of 3rd party voters)
2004: Kerry improved over Gore by 5%
2008: McCain 49% (just 3% above NA)
2012 and 2016: much more GOP than NA