How did a 3% gain for Reform translate into a 31 seat loss?
Oh dear. Question, why did Reform do so bad despite staying close to the NDP on its vote share?
They maxed out in the west and still can't break through in the east. I totally drained the PC and Liberal bore from the west and made it almost all NDP and Reform. The NDP ended up gaining seats because the tool I replace the Greens with Reform in the election 2015-based tool I used. So an increase in NDP votes translates to a decrease in Green votes, even when I try to max them out.
For example, in Manitoba, if you put the CPC (the PCs for me) at 25, Liberals at 25, NDP at 40 and Greens (Reform) at 35 you get...one seat for Reform. The PCs are still on 10 seats in total from the province. So I need to totally eliminate the PC vote from the western provinces in order to get any seats for Reform. Upping the NDP totals there didn't help them, either.
Further, I gave Reform 30% of the vote in Ontario and they didn't win a single seat, and 25% in Quebec and nothing.
Because the Greens finished last in almost every riding in 2015, upping their provincial vote total by 10, 20 30 percent doesn't always translate to seats, because they have so much ground to make up. I think for the next election, with the PCs well and truly decimated, I'll use the CPC for Reform.
Poll
