If Democrats won the House in 2018, would they retain it in 2020?

[heatcharger]

I'm obviously getting way ahead of myself, but if Democrats were able to put together a coalition that won them control of the House in 2018, I have a hard time seeing them lose it in 2020, even if Trump won. A counterpoint would be that if they did win the House, it would be a really narrow margin, and they might be outstretched in certain districts.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Of course the Democrats won't hold the House in 2020 if Trump wins.

[heatcharger]

Of course the Democrats won't hold the House in 2020 if Trump wins.

If they flipped all the Clinton-Republican districts and got a few elsewhere, they could hold them all if Trump wins with the same coalition he did last time.

[Virginiá]

If they flipped all the Clinton-Republican districts and got a few elsewhere, they could hold them all if Trump wins with the same coalition he did last time.

I think it's difficult to answer this without knowing the specifics - which districts Democrats hold, how big Trump's win is, what his approvals are, how big the Democratic House majority actually is, etc.

Given the trend of straight ticket voting in recent years, the overall Congressional map and other factors, if Trump won either a plurality (at least) or at least kept it close, odds are the House PV will also be close, and the current political environment tends to give Republicans a majority when the House PV is close.

Or in other words, without a major realignment, I'm unsure how it could take Democrats almost double digits in the House PV to win a majority but much less to retain it. The only other outcome along those lines is that Democrats win the House PV bigly with Trump still winning, which isn't likely with STV.

If Democrats won a majority in 2018, and 2020 saw them win the presidency, I think it's quite likely they also grow their House majority (and other power downballot)

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I don't know how anyone is supposed to predict this. There are just so many variables. What districts would they win to get the majority? How would Trump's approval rating be? What policies has the administration gotten passed? How any retirements/scandals has each party had? Who do Dems nominate for president? Is there a particularly bad Senate candidate in one state that drags down his whole party's ticket in that state?

[Skill and Chance]

If 2018 is like any of the elections where House flipped in recent times, then almost surely yes because the Dems would have 230+ seats going into 2020 anyway. 

[Brittain33]

If 2006/2008 repeat themselves, yes. But it's way too early to tell. Most Presidents who run for reelection, win reelection.

[heatcharger]

I think it's difficult to answer this without knowing the specifics - which districts Democrats hold, how big Trump's win is, what his approvals are, how big the Democratic House majority actually is, etc.

I don't know how anyone is supposed to predict this. There are just so many variables. What districts would they win to get the majority? How would Trump's approval rating be? What policies has the administration gotten passed? How any retirements/scandals has each party had? Who do Dems nominate for president? Is there a particularly bad Senate candidate in one state that drags down his whole party's ticket in that state?

Well, how much you consider all of those factors is up to your discretion, although perhaps I should've added a 'Yes, but only if Trump loses' option. In my opinion, the most obvious path to a majority in the house is all of the Clinton-Republican districts, give or take a few, and some other slightly red districts with an occasional affinity to vote Democratic (say MT-AL).

Personally, I thnk if Democrats actually did take back the House, Trump would moderate a bit, since he doesn't like being on a losing side on things, but the only things Democrats would give him is a token infrastructure bill. I doubt Trump can pull off a Clinton 96 and appeal to the middle, but who knows.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Of course the Democrats won't hold the House in 2020 if Trump wins.

If they flipped all the Clinton-Republican districts and got a few elsewhere, they could hold them all if Trump wins with the same coalition he did last time.

But none of the Trump-Democratic districts flip? That's some grade A cherry-picking.

[heatcharger]

Of course the Democrats won't hold the House in 2020 if Trump wins.

If they flipped all the Clinton-Republican districts and got a few elsewhere, they could hold them all if Trump wins with the same coalition he did last time.

But none of the Trump-Democratic districts flip? That's some grade A cherry-picking.

If Democrats held 230+ seats, they could lose them all and it wouldn't matter.

[Pericles]

Of course the Democrats won't hold the House in 2020 if Trump wins.

Republicans held the House in 1996 despite Bill Clinton's landslide victory and they also held the House in 2012(though that was perhaps due to gerrymandering). As a caveat, both times they lost the popular vote but their incumbency kept control of the House.

[Mr.Phips]

Of course the Democrats won't hold the House in 2020 if Trump wins.

Republicans held the House in 1996 despite Bill Clinton's landslide victory and they also held the House in 2012(though that was perhaps due to gerrymandering). As a caveat, both times they lost the popular vote but their incumbency kept control of the House.

Dems should have easily won back the House in 1996.  Clinton won like 275 districts nationwide and there were dozens of freshman Republicans who only won because of 1994 in Clinton districts.