UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And more specifically to Labour, Republicanism was the goal of the party until really the Good Friday Agreement. Which always meant Callaghan relying on both Gerry Fitt and Enoch Powell to win votes was rather dicey.

A lot of backbenchers were furious at the whips doing deals with Unionist MPs, yeah.

[Barnes]

"Do you think the long-term policy for Northern Ireland should be for it to remain part of the United Kingdom or to unify with the rest of Ireland?"



Responses from the British Social Attitudes Survey by NatCen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Citation needed

There's a whole bunch of survey data from the period out there if you want to look in detail, but I'll go with the easiest: there was majority support for a United Ireland in every British Social Attitudes survey up until the Good Friday Agreement.

I.e. don't confuse the chants of 1980s football hooligans - a pretty despised group themselves! - with the social mainstream.

[Barnes]

Citation needed

There's a whole bunch of survey data from the period out there if you want to look in detail, but I'll go with the easiest: there was majority support for a United Ireland in every British Social Attitudes survey up until the Good Friday Agreement.

I.e. don't confuse the chants of 1980s football hooligans - a pretty despised group themselves! - with the social mainstream.

Hahaha!

But very true, IRA terrorism was roundly (and rightly) despised, but that's not the same thing as Republicanism, not matter how much the former claimed it to be. 

[thumb21]

Why would a Labour-SNP coalition be suicide for Labour? (at least not more than say, Labour-Plaid or Labour-SDLP)? Other than having to give Scotland a 2nd referendum (probably after Brexit, so in late 2019 or early 2020), what else would Labour have to do?

And why will the SNP save the Conservatives? Do people in England (who don't already vote Tory) hate the SNP that much as for voting conservative out of spite?

Then again, assuming it' a hung parliament (extremely unlikely), it will probably have the conservatives well ahead, so I guess there will just be a Conservative-DUP government or something like that.

The SNP is deeply unpopular in England. Labour associating itself with the SNP will likely inherit some of that unpopularity. Furthermore, there is a deep feeling in England that Scotland is getting special treatment over England and those fears will only increase if the SNP gets into government and that would be something the Conservatives could easily exploit. Also, by going into coalition with the SNP, Labour would likely be seen as an example of them putting party over country as the SNP wants to break our country up. Not to mention the fact that the Conservatives would be able to position themselves as the sole Unionist party in Scotland and court even more of the Unionist vote.

The SNP factor is blamed as one of the key reasons for the Conservative victory in 2015 and was a key part of their campaign, likely the Conservatives would be able to repeat that now.

IIRC, when the Canadian left tried to put together a coalition that included the separatist Bloc Quebecois, the Tories went from the high 30's to the mid 40's in the polls.

I see

[Blair]

Incidentally, the Labour Uncut piece is really very, very bad; dubious 'data' (that is not shown to the reader - so we have no idea what it actually is or looks like or, bluntly, even if it actually exists - from sources that are not enumerated) that is then adulterated with various assumptions (exactly what these are or how they affect the 'data' is again not entirely clear) and turned into an extremely rigid predictive 'model' (one so crude that using the word 'model' seems inappropriate) that is then presented as absolute cast-iron Truth. A Truth that happens to fit in exactly with what Labour Uncut would like to see happen (these people having deluded themselves that they can return to relevance - they were never relevant but like to think that they were - only if Labour suffers an absolutely catastrophic defeat, after which they will be hailed as oracles or something). It is grotesque in its intellectual dishonesty and is the sort of thing that gives electoral analysis a bad name. It is disappointing to see it so eagerly linked to and re-tweeted across the wide political internet, though it isn't hard to see why. What amuses me slightly is that some of the people doing the sharing have had so much fun over the past year mocking the insistence of the more deluded Corbynites that (e.g.) LABOUR WERE AHEAD UNTIL CHICKEN COUP. Evidentially voodoo is voodoo and Polling is a Science you know and Rationality Matters until I Want To Believe...

...ah, you say, but what if it somehow turns out to be broadly accurate? Well, last year I made up up some fake polling figures from an entirely fictional firm for the state of Pennsylvania and posted them on this very forum as a joke. These fake figures turned out to be more accurate than those of the published polls. Does this mean that if I make up any more American polling stats for a joke that they should be treated as Serious and Reliable? No.

Isn't Labour uncut on the very right of the party (e.g the Ultras)? I had a quick skim through the model and it seemed based on taking the entire UKIP vote and handing it to the tories

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't Labour uncut on the very right of the party (e.g the Ultras)?

They're on the right wing of the right wing of the right wing, frankly. The sort of people who stan for Jim Murphy.

[Slow Learner]

Might be biovating here but I'm assuming there was a bump post-Hunger Strikes? Good to see the shift in attitudes both in Labour and with the public as a whole btw.

[Barnes]

Yeah, those numbers would actually equate to a Conservative majority of near 60.

This election will show commentators, rather definitively, that Britain is and will remain a two-party system, with the two major parties getting near 80% of the vote between them.

[King of Kensington]

Is the Very Serious Persons' "Corbyn is headed for the worst result ever because of his personality and far left policies" still the consensus here?

[parochial boy]

Not wanting to count chickens before eggs have hatched and all, but the prospect of the Tories winning by less than 10 points, when they were nearly 25 ahead just a month ago is incredible.

Shoot me, but I think reports of the death of the Labour party have been somewhat overstated.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

What's causing the sudden swing in momentum from the Tories to Labour?

[DavidB.]

What's causing the sudden swing in momentum from the Tories to Labour?

The manifestos. People focus on the Tories' budget cuts now instead of on Jeremy Corbyn's less than appealing personality.

[Devout Centrist]

hung parliament imminent

You must be logged in to read this quote.

May's gonna panic and the bloodletting will increase.

[Shadows]

Controversial Tory social care plans, Theresa May's "version of the poll tax" will lead to her downfall, Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron has told Sky News. Mr Farron said it showed the Conservative leadership is "mean, calculating, and uncaring" and taking voters for granted.

The party is facing a backlash over the proposed social care scheme, which would see the planned £72,000 cap on care costs scrapped. Instead, people would not have to pay for their care if they have assets of below £100,000 - including the value of their home - rather than the current threshold of £23,500.

http://news.sky.com/story/tory-social-care-plans-theresa-mays-poll-tax-warns-tim-farron-10886756

Conservative candidates are reporting that the proposal is going down badly on the doorstep, potentially accounting for a drop in the party’s lead in the polls. Two Tory candidates seeking re-election, including Sarah Wollaston, who chaired the Commons health committee, have gone on the record to criticise the proposal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/21/theresa-may-under-pressure-over-dementia-tax-social-care-shakeup

[Shadows]

Mr Corbyn, campaigning in Birmingham ahead of the 8 June election, said the party's manifesto was "very clear". Speaking to reporters after a rally, Mr Corbyn said: "The manifesto makes it very clear that the Labour Party has come to a decision and is committed to Trident.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39984070

Under 25s have sent off nearly 16,000 more applications than any other age group since the Prime Minister made the shock announcement on 18 April.   

In total, The Register to Vote Service has recorded 714,595 under 25s applying to register between 18 April and 20 May. The second largest group to register during that period was 25-34-year-olds, who made 698,781 applications. Numbers for older age groups come in at less than half the latter figure, with 317,908 applications from 35-44-year-olds, and just 27,172 from the over 75s.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/general-election-latest-young-people-voter-registration-under-25s-theresa-may-a7747681.html

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Yeah, May just possibly blew what could have been the greatest Torie win since Thatcher and Major into possibly a Hung Parliament or weak Torie majority.

[Shadows]

Yeah, May just possibly blew what could have been the greatest Torie win since Thatcher and Major into possibly a Hung Parliament or weak Torie majority.

Hung Parliament? With still a comfortable lead, that is hard to achieve. Labour has to get more votes & there's a margin of error & all that - Sometimes we jump too much into the short term trends, let's see what happens, in 10-12 days we will have definite idea. She could still get a solid majority & rule with an iron fist !

Frankly, I hope she realizes how horrid her Internet regulation scheme is & takes feedback from voters.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, May just possibly blew what could have been the greatest Torie win since Thatcher and Major into possibly a Hung Parliament or weak Torie majority.

I highly doubt Labour will make any gains in this election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Now before everyone gets excited, just note that the Tories are still above Blair's 1997 PV total and is still on track to a comfortable majority. Yes, the manifestos did this but May is the one to make the best out of a terrible situation.

[politicallefty]

The polling does seem to show some tightening, but where is this happening? I highly doubt it's even across the country. If Labour is gaining in Scotland at the expense of the Tories, any seat gains there will just end up being at the expense of the SNP.  I don't think the possibility of a hung Parliament happens unless the Conservatives fall below 40%.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Now before everyone gets excited, just note that the Tories are still above Blair's 1997 PV total and is still on track to a comfortable majority. Yes, the manifestos did this but May is the one to make the best out of a terrible situation.

It's rather funny to see LibertarianRep go from asking what the hell is going on to confidently predicting the political demise of another nation's Prime Minister though. I entered those numbers into the Electoral Calculus calculator (no idea how accurate that is, it could be terrible for all I know) and it came up with the Tories gaining 30 seats.

[Boston Bread]

The polling does seem to show some tightening, but where is this happening? I highly doubt it's even across the country. If Labour is gaining in Scotland at the expense of the Tories, any seat gains there will just end up being at the expense of the SNP.  I don't think the possibility of a hung Parliament happens unless the Conservatives fall below 40%.

Subsamples are always dodgy, but recent polls have shown that Labour is not significantly gaining in Scotland (every recent poll I've seen still has Labour 3rd there). Labour is mainly gaining in the North (Lab +14 in YouGov, +8.5 in Survation), Wales (Lab +19.3 in Survation, no sample from YouGov), and London (Lab +10 in YouGov, +7.3 in Survation).

As for which parties Labour is taking from, they could be taking from any mix of Lib Dems, Tories, UKIP, or Greens, depending on the pollster.

Links:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wvyc3lofp5/SundayTimesResults_170519_VI_W.pdf
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-GMB-GE2017-III-Tables-190517TOCH-1c0d3h4.pdf

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Now before everyone gets excited, just note that the Tories are still above Blair's 1997 PV total and is still on track to a comfortable majority. Yes, the manifestos did this but May is the one to make the best out of a terrible situation.

It's rather funny to see LibertarianRep go from asking what the hell is going on to confidently predicting the political demise of another nation's Prime Minister though. I entered those numbers into the Electoral Calculus calculator (no idea how accurate that is, it could be terrible for all I know) and it came up with the Tories gaining 30 seats.

I wasn't predicting really, I was just commenting on how May and the Tories are basically atm blowing what could have been close to if not Thatcher level results for them with a horrible manifesto.

[Devout Centrist]

May: "We'll prosecute anyone who attempts to watch or recreate facesitting pornography. In addition, fish and chips will be criminalized!"