UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[politicallefty]

As I already asked before, where is Labour making these inroads? Is is in their strongholds or former strongholds or is it somewhere new? I'm not comparing a general election to a referendum, but Brexit barely passed while winning a huge majority of constituencies. If Labour is making meaningful gains in England, that's a serious shift in this election. With that said though, there's still 2.5 weeks to go. As the old axiom goes, even a week is a lifetime in politics.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, this is becoming an increasingly unpleasant trend of online activists (and actual journos) of all stripes (inlcuding my own) - to pounce on essntially random people who have the INDECENCY to question their facourite politicians on TV and dox them, often mistakenly. Has the potential to cereate a chilling effect on democracy tbh.

As I already asked before, where is Labour making these inroads? Is is in their strongholds or former strongholds or is it somewhere new? I'm not comparing a general election to a referendum, but Brexit barely passed while winning a huge majority of constituencies. If Labour is making meaningful gains in England, that's a serious shift in this election. With that said though, there's still 2.5 weeks to go. As the old axiom goes, even a week is a lifetime in politics.

reversion to the mean. There was a big rally round the flag recently (similar to what you see after big disasters) that was probably always going to be hard to maintain, especially when the media statred remembering other issues existed besides brexit.

[Blair]

Worth noting that there was always going to be a weekend (or week) like this; I should have written it down, but any campaign where one side is so far ahead at the start is bound to have a 'wobble' where the media gets excited, and the negative briefing begins. Labour was picking up before the manifesto, and did a very good job of spending the last 3 weeks having an item leading the news every day (free school meals, no tuition fees, no tax rises for the 95%, etc etc) Labour have ran a very good campaign.

Also Theresa May has never ran a national campaign- at all. She didn't have a single hustings for the leadership in 2016, she didn't do any big media roles in the referendum, was never one of the constant media stars.  Combined with the lack of cabinet talent- compare Cameron's team of Hague, Osborne, Johnson with May's Rudd, Hammond and Bojo post brexit then she doesn't have anyone to send on the airwaves.

The social care policy was put in right at the end by Nick Timothy, and was made worse because the manifesto didn't have one big giveaway they could talk about. Some people are saying it's some master plan by Lynton Crosby to get people panicking and going to the polls but tbh it just looks like a cock up by the tories

[DC Al Fine]

Worth noting that there was always going to be a weekend (or week) like this; I should have written it down, but any campaign where one side is so far ahead at the start is bound to have a 'wobble' where the media gets excited, and the negative briefing begins. Labour was picking up before the manifesto, and did a very good job of spending the last 3 weeks having an item leading the news every day (free school meals, no tuition fees, no tax rises for the 95%, etc etc) Labour have ran a very good campaign.

Also Theresa May has never ran a national campaign- at all. She didn't have a single hustings for the leadership in 2016, she didn't do any big media roles in the referendum, was never one of the constant media stars.  Combined with the lack of cabinet talent- compare Cameron's team of Hague, Osborne, Johnson with May's Rudd, Hammond and Bojo post brexit then she doesn't have anyone to send on the airwaves.

The social care policy was put in right at the end by Nick Timothy, and was made worse because the manifesto didn't have one big giveaway they could talk about. Some people are saying it's some master plan by Lynton Crosby to get people panicking and going to the polls but tbh it just looks like a cock up by the tories

Is this a common thing? I remember in the Canada 2015 campaign there were people who thought every word Harper said was some sort of Lynton Crosby tactic.

[Blair]

Worth noting that there was always going to be a weekend (or week) like this; I should have written it down, but any campaign where one side is so far ahead at the start is bound to have a 'wobble' where the media gets excited, and the negative briefing begins. Labour was picking up before the manifesto, and did a very good job of spending the last 3 weeks having an item leading the news every day (free school meals, no tuition fees, no tax rises for the 95%, etc etc) Labour have ran a very good campaign.

Also Theresa May has never ran a national campaign- at all. She didn't have a single hustings for the leadership in 2016, she didn't do any big media roles in the referendum, was never one of the constant media stars.  Combined with the lack of cabinet talent- compare Cameron's team of Hague, Osborne, Johnson with May's Rudd, Hammond and Bojo post brexit then she doesn't have anyone to send on the airwaves.

The social care policy was put in right at the end by Nick Timothy, and was made worse because the manifesto didn't have one big giveaway they could talk about. Some people are saying it's some master plan by Lynton Crosby to get people panicking and going to the polls but tbh it just looks like a cock up by the tories

Is this a common thing? I remember in the Canada 2015 campaign there were people who thought every word Harper said was some sort of Lynton Crosby tactic.

Well since 2015 when he got his mark for the 'dead cat' story where Michael Fallon accused Miliband of 'stabbing britain in the back' the day after we announced a massive crackdown on tax avoidance. Also the whole Labour+SNP coalition fear was discovered and played by his pollster.

But yeah there's certainly an irrational tendency to think every fart from any politician has his fingerprints on it. (in the same way tories+far left use to think Alastair Campbell controlled the Labour party)

[Blair]

The struggle now for May/tories is stopping the story completely over-spilling; as can happen when you botch the u-turn, it doesn't appear that she's actually changed her position

[jaichind]

Guardian/ICM

CON        47  (-1)
LAB         33  (+5)
LIB           9   (-1)
UKIP         4  (-2)
Greens      2  (-1)

[Slow Learner]

I believe we're seeing a pro Labour polling error and absolutely do not expect it to hold up.

[Blair]

The SNP are awful, and I can't wait until one party rule in Scotland ends

[parochial boy]

All these u-turns must surely be undermining the "strong and stable narrative", or indeed, the "Theresa May actually has a clue what she is doing" narrative.

She regularly showed that she was incompetent as home secretary, and is continuing to do so as PM - but the British public and media are so desparate for a "strong" figure, that they will let anything slide, even when the truth is staring them in the face.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Even with the Tory polling slump they can still net atleast 390 seats so I don't know what Labour is celebrating here...

[Phony Moderate]

Even with the Tory polling slump they can still net atleast 390 seats so I don't know what Labour is celebrating here...

No way would they gain 60 seats on a 1-2% swing. Plausible on a 4%+ swing though.

[Mike88]

Labour, according to polls, is almost reaching Tony Blair's 2005 vote share, 35%. I know that May is making some pretty big U-turns but the Labour campaign isn't also a going very well. Could polling companies be making the same error of 2015: overestimating Labour?

[Blair]

Labour, according to polls, is almost reaching Tony Blair's 2005 vote share, 35%. I know that May is making some pretty big U-turns but the Labour campaign isn't also a going very well. Could polling companies be making the same error of 2015: overestimating Labour?

Blair got 36% in Great Britain as a whole- the problem is that election final tallies include Northern Ireland (so get dragged down) but polling doesn't include it. But yes; based on the polling they appear to be reaching that point.

However Blair won 2005 because he still won areas that simply don't vote Labour normally. There's a danger that Corbyn's 35% (which appears to be from Lib Dems+Green voters) will pile up in metro areas. If the final result is 44%-35% we could see some strange results.

Also yes; at this point in the 1987 campaign Labour was at 35%, but got 30% in the end. In fact iirc polls have overestimated Labour by 4-5% in every campaign (bar 2010)

[parochial boy]

Even with the Tory polling slump they can still net atleast 390 seats so I don't know what Labour is celebrating here...

No way would they gain 60 seats on a 1-2% swing. Plausible on a 4%+ swing though.

There are going to be some hugely different trends across the country, so it seems pretty hard to predict how vote shares are going to translate into numbers of seats with any real confidence.

Also, not saying I don't believe that Welsh poll, but if it's true, would seem to indicate traditional Labour voters are returning to the fold in huge numbers (unless the entire populations of Cardiff and Ceredigion are planning on voting Labour).

[_]

Even with the Tory polling slump they can still net atleast 390 seats so I don't know what Labour is celebrating here...

No way would they gain 60 seats on a 1-2% swing. Plausible on a 4%+ swing though.

There are going to be some hugely different trends across the country, so it seems pretty hard to predict how vote shares are going to translate into numbers of seats with any real confidence.

Also, not saying I don't believe that Welsh poll, but if it's true, would seem to indicate traditional Labour voters are returning to the fold in huge numbers (unless the entire populations of Cardiff and Ceredigion are planning on voting Labour).

Maybe they finally realized that May is literally just repeating the same 8 words and thinks she can win purely on those words?

[Shadows]

Westminster (Wales): LAB lead 10
LAB 44(+9)
CON 34(-7)
PC 9(-2)
LD 6(-1)
UKIP 5(+1)
YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni

So it was -> CON - 41, Labour - 33 & now this.

It went from being Con +8 to Lab +10. That is an 18% swing, that "COULD" decide most of the competitive seats in Labour's favour if this holds on in Wales !

One good thing was that David Cameron seemed humble & with empathy while May with all her tough woman image, comes across as somewhat unrelatable sometimes with ordinary folks !

[_]

Westminster (Wales): LAB lead 10
LAB 44(+9)
CON 34(-7)
PC 9(-2)
LD 6(-1)
UKIP 5(+1)
YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni

So it was -> CON - 41, Labour - 33 & now this.

It went from being Con +8 to Lab +10. That is an 18% swing, that "COULD" decide most of the competitive seats in Labour's favour if this holds on in Wales !

One good thing was that David Cameron seemed humble & with empathy while May with all her tough woman image, comes across as somewhat unrelatable sometimes with ordinary folks !

Many people have been skeptic about the tories winning Wales,
Wales haven't voted Tory since the 19th century



PM approval rating was taken after dementia tax was announced
Its the most important election indicator,
with May high approval rating its hard to imagine the tories not getting big majority

It doesn't look like Approval Rating had an effect in 2015, with Cameron growing his majority with a negative approval, perhaps it will be the opposite this time.

[_]

Westminster (Wales): LAB lead 10
LAB 44(+9)
CON 34(-7)
PC 9(-2)
LD 6(-1)
UKIP 5(+1)
YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni

So it was -> CON - 41, Labour - 33 & now this.

It went from being Con +8 to Lab +10. That is an 18% swing, that "COULD" decide most of the competitive seats in Labour's favour if this holds on in Wales !

One good thing was that David Cameron seemed humble & with empathy while May with all her tough woman image, comes across as somewhat unrelatable sometimes with ordinary folks !

Many people have been skeptic about the tories winning Wales,
Wales haven't voted Tory since the 19th century



PM approval rating was taken after dementia tax was announced
Its the most important election indicator,
with May high approval rating its hard to imagine the tories not getting big majority

It doesn't look like Approval Rating had an effect in 2015, with Cameron growing his majority with a negative approval, perhaps it will be the opposite this time.

Ed Milliband had lower approval ratings then Cameron

And I assume Corbyn is even lower than Milliband, correct?

[ApatheticAustrian]

what labour could win right now with another leader.....

[Phony Moderate]

Callaghan had a 19-point lead over Thatcher as preferred PM on the eve of the 1979 election. I believe Howard had better net ratings than Blair in 2005.

[_]

what labour could win right now with another leader.....

Only Corbyn could find a way to lose against a campaign with LITERALLY JUST 8 WORDS.

[YL]

As I already asked before, where is Labour making these inroads? Is is in their strongholds or former strongholds or is it somewhere new? I'm not comparing a general election to a referendum, but Brexit barely passed while winning a huge majority of constituencies. If Labour is making meaningful gains in England, that's a serious shift in this election. With that said though, there's still 2.5 weeks to go. As the old axiom goes, even a week is a lifetime in politics.

We don't really have enough polling data to answer this question.  You can do subsample analysis, and some has already been posted, but it has to come with a health warning.

We do now have one possibly useful piece of data, that Welsh poll, which actually shows a tiny swing to Labour since 2015 (big enough for Gower but not Vale of Clwyd to be recaptured on UNS, which makes it pretty tiny) and so suggests a better situation in Wales than in the UK as a whole.  No doubt you could try to extrapolate from that, but I wouldn't jump to conclusions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/SirDavidButler/status/866643815708463104

gonna need some ice for that burn t. may.

[Barnes]

https://twitter.com/SirDavidButler/status/866643815708463104

gonna need some ice for that burn t. may.

The BBC needs to get him back on the air. His surprise appearance at the end of the 2015 program was wonderful.