UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[DL]

I do hate to be the one to start speculation over the advantages of a tragic incident and I do ask to be forgiven but yes, this will surely benefit the Tories.

Who knows? A year ago everyone thought the assassination of Jo Cox one week before the referendum would give a boost to the remain side. Didn't happen. More recently a lot of people posting here were 100% certain that LePen would get a last minute boost because of the shootings on the Champs Élysée just three days before the first round in France. Instead she actually did worse than the final polls projected. So who knows.

[Zanas]

Not cool buddy.

Please leave this forum and never return.

Why? 

Back in Nov 2016 this thread appeared in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election forum

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250593.0

titled

"Effects on election if Mosul is retaken from ISIS?"

Does not the battle of Mosul involve deaths ? Are not at least some of such death innocent ? Yet it was fine to talk about it as a topic on affect on an election. 

I side with jaichind on that. We're here to discuss politics and elections, and of course tragic events, natural or otherwise, can and will have an effect on politics and elections. Discussing them can actually be a way to cope with those. I'm not saying we should go all cynicism mode, and that tact isn't at all required though. And I'm allowed to say this because I live in fukcing Paris.

[Hifly]

Can all the Americans just leave? We've asked so many times.

[parochial boy]

Not cool buddy.

Please leave this forum and never return.

Why? 

Back in Nov 2016 this thread appeared in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election forum

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250593.0

titled

"Effects on election if Mosul is retaken from ISIS?"

Does not the battle of Mosul involve deaths ? Are not at least some of such death innocent ? Yet it was fine to talk about it as a topic on affect on an election. 

I side with jaichind on that. We're here to discuss politics and elections, and of course tragic events, natural or otherwise, can and will have an effect on politics and elections. Discussing them can actually be a way to cope with those. I'm not saying we should go all cynicism mode, and that tact isn't at all required though. And I'm allowed to say this because I live in fukcing Paris.

True, but  there is a difference between discussing the impact on the election; and immediately asking "ooh, I wonder if this will hurt Labour" while they are still counting the bodies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...

That is honestly one of the most pathetic pieces of inappropriate self-indulgent whinging I've seen during the frankly far too many years that I've posted here. Children have died but it's all about your RIGHT to slaver with anticipation at the potential electoral consequences! Get out.

[Blair]

Can all the Americans just leave? We've asked so many times.

[Holmes]

If the campaign's been suspended for 24 hours then you can wait that long to have a discussion like that.

[IceAgeComing]

Yeah, honestly, PittsburghSteel, whoever you are, stfu.

As if all the "Is the Midlands like the Alabama of the UK", "Will this be like the 1986 midterms in the US" type comments weren't bad enough from non-British posters.

 

Don't forget "do coal miners vote Tory??"

[Barnes]

Yeah, honestly, PittsburghSteel, whoever you are, stfu.

As if all the "Is the Midlands like the Alabama of the UK", "Will this be like the 1986 midterms in the US" type comments weren't bad enough from non-British posters.

 

Don't forget "do coal miners vote Tory??"

Truly cracking analysis that we would be the worse without.

Of course, one would hope that we could act like human beings and, you know, have some empathy for 22 people whose bodies are still being pulled out of rubble, but of course not. This is the internet and the most important thing is the worshipping of the self, and, of course, protecting your (heretofore unknown) INALIENABLE RIGHT to calculate how much of a majority will be built on the bones of the dead.

Good show. 

[kyc0705]

I do hate to be the one to start speculation over the advantages of a tragic incident and I do ask to be forgiven but yes, this will surely benefit the Tories.

I know I’m late, but please don’t EVER say anything like this again.

[The Other Castro]

Of course this could have political effects, but there is such a thing as waiting at least a short period of time out of respect. People shouldn't be discussing seat counts while they're still tallying the body count.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i remember the last minute surge, benefiting the front national in france.

[EnglishPete]

This is the very definition of political correctness. We all know that it's correct that this will objectively have an effect on politics but we have to pretend like to doesn't to appease...I don't even know. It's not like if we don't talk about politics the victims will be any less dead.

It's so dumb.

Also, don't bring up garbage about Americans not being able to comment. Unless you can find an example of an American who talked about the political effects of Ariana Grande but refused to talk about the political effects of San Bernidino. I doubt such a person exists though. Generally, people are either whiny babies or they aren't.

By the way, the terrorist attack was very sad. I'm sad the people are dead or hurt. We are all adults though. It shouldn't even have to be said.

I would agree with this. some people in the UK are talking about the parties suspending campaigning until the weekend, which is madness in my view this close to an election when postal ballots are already being posted. We shouldn't put democracy on hold because some neurotic loser wanted to murder suicide his way into the headlines.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Of course this could have political effects, but there is such a thing as waiting at least a short period of time out of respect. People shouldn't be discussing seat counts while they're still tallying the body count.

While Mortimer is mostly right (barf), this is true. At least for today.

[EnglishPete]

And before anyone accuses me of making partisan points out of last night's tragedy I'm not saying whether the public perception problems that Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have around questions of terrorism are fair or unfair. From a psephological point of view that's beside the point. The fact is that they do have such public perception problems and these will be brought into people's minds as they watch Theresa May speaking from the Downing Street podium on the evening news whilst they fill in their postal ballots. All this happening at the same time as campaigning being temporarily suspended does not bode well for Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is the very definition of political correctness.

No, it's what people from previous (and now almost entirely deceased) generations used to call decorum. It's a shame that people are so badly brought up these days that they don't know how to behave.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And before anyone accuses me of making partisan points out of last night's tragedy...

You are aware that this sort of handwaving doesn't actually the sting out of such criticism? Quite justified in this case as always. You know more people would like you if you were less odious.

[mvd10]

People in the Netherlands are discussing how these attacks will affect the fcking europa league final (not the extra security but like the actual game). But I agree that we should be waiting to discuss this, it's respectless. Just wait a day or two.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean very shortly the ordinary election campaign will have started again and you can all discuss that!

[Former President tack50]

Damn, this thread turned into a dumpster fire pretty fast.

Trying to draw a comparison, what did this board do with the Madrid 04 attacks? I could only find a thread from election day (so not exactly comparable as that was 3 days after)

[Illiniwek]

Now then, back to #LabourSurge.

[ApatheticAustrian]

how much labour btw need, to win even one more seat then in 2015....

well, i guess i ask the question in the wrong way....

wouldn't the conservative even win new seats probably, if labour would get more voters, hypothetically?

scotland alone is madness.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Now then, back to #LabourSurge.

Yeah, I have a feeling that is over.

[_]

Now then, back to #LabourSurge.

Yeah, I have a feeling that is over.

Well if the Strong And Stable Bot breaks down again....

[parochial boy]

how much labour btw need, to win even one more seat then in 2015....

well, i guess i ask the question in the wrong way....

wouldn't the conservative even win new seats probably, if labour would get more voters, hypothetically?

scotland alone is madness.

Well, given that the 3rd party seat share pretty much bottomed out in England in 2015 with the Lib Dems (there were what, 8 seats in the whole of England that didn't go Tory or Labour), I think it is possible that any two party swing between the Tories and Labour could translate into seats pretty directly.

That sais, trends are going to be mad - if the media story is true, lots of traditional Labour areas are going to trend heavily away from Labour, and plenty of "metropolitan liberal" type places (London, even Bristol or Manchester) will trend Lib Dem. And any relative gain in Labour votes (lol, as is...) would mostly mean them just stacking up massive margins places like Inner London and Merseyside.

Short answer: haha, sucks to be Labour.