UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Helsinkian]

Apparently campaigning will start again on Friday.

[Zinneke]

Apparently campaigning will start again on Friday.

Paul Nuttall will release the UKIP manifesto tomorrow.

[Barnes]

Parochial Boy is quite right in that a more direct swing correlation will almost certainly result from this election as you can see support for both major parties increasing quite substantially. Britain used to be used to extremely uniform and consistent swing patterns between Labour and the Tories, to the point in the fifties where over 90% of the country voted for the two main parties almost uniformly in most areas.

Of course, this has eroded away to a degree through a variety of reasons: fracturing of the unionist vote in Ulster, Scotland consistently swinging away from southern England starting in 1959, but becoming very pronounced in the '80s, and the relative increase in marginals between a major party and a minor party.

The reduction substantially in the last factor has seen a pretty pronounced return to the earlier system.

[Silent Hunter]

Local campaigning has resumed, full campaigning starting tomorrow.

[Silent Hunter]

@LordRennard
As campaigning resumes, it should be noted that 2,938,269 applied to register to vote since the start of the campaign, 1,054,308 under 25

Labour lost the popular vote in 2015 by just shy of 2 million, FWIW.

[Silent Hunter]

On Electoral Calculus, that would still give the Tories a majority of 26.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, so after the bombing. Anyway. Odd election this one.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov has Labour now polling at 38% today. The poll was taken from the 24th - 25th.

[parochial boy]

I know it's only crosstabs, so shoot me for saying this, but the polarisation between age groups is absolutely ridiculous.

And if Labour's gains are coming from 2015 non-voters, then they are almost certainly being overstated; unless... turnout among 18-24 was apparently 66% in the Brexit referendum, so maybe they are ready to start turning out to vote after all

[Former President tack50]

poll drop took place BEFORE terror attacks

So, assuming it was taken after the attack: there's a "rally behind the flag" effect for May but that won't necesarily extend to the rest of the Conservative Party?

[Lachi]

poll drop took place BEFORE terror attacks

Who are Rudd and Abbot Is it Kev and Tony?

[IceAgeComing]

Diane Abbott and Amber Rudd I assume, much more sensible than two random Australians

I'm assuming that's an outlier but we'll see - should scare the Tories a lot though.

[Lord Halifax]

poll drop took place BEFORE terror attacks

Who are Rudd and Abbot Is it Kev and Tony?

The Home Secretary Amber Rudd and Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The polarization between young people (Labour) and old people (Tory) is really interesting and worrying at the same time.

[IceAgeComing]

age-based polarisation is not a healthy thing; but not surprising considering the way that this government has treated young people in the last seven years

[jaichind]

YouGov has Labour now polling at 38% today. The poll was taken from the 24th - 25th.

If this ends up being the result Corbyn would have earned his right to stay on as LAB leader.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

tbh I can live with Corbyn staying if he manages to improve the 2015 score against all odds. Would be best if he quitely shuffled Diane Abbott to a less embarrassing position though.

[mgop]

@iankatz1000
Former Labour home sec Charles Clarke on Corbyn linking terror to foreign policy: "I haven't taken Jeremy’s advice on security matters for yrs. He’s simply wrong"

While i agree Iraq was a terrible mistake, i dont think its the right move from Corbyn

it's not about iraq, libya was much bigger mistake.

[IceAgeComing]

I'm personally hoping that a positive Labour result like that would lead to the party coming together behind him, since although he wasn't great he looked a hell of a lot better when the party was vaguely united behind him.  Although I'm 99% sure that you'd just get another challenge, really.

Although I"m not voting Labour, so I'm probably not worth listening to...

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's not about iraq, libya was much bigger mistake.

?

on what scale could libya by a bigger mistake?

less death, less chaos, richer country, more reasonable talks?

libya is a mess but compared to iraq?....

[DL]

So whatever happened to the theory that the terrorist attack in Manchester was 100% ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED to help the Tories?

[Barnes]

So whatever happened to the theory that the terrorist attack in Manchester was 100% ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED to help the Tories?

We had some hard boiled "analysis" that day, let me tell you.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

@iankatz1000
Former Labour home sec Charles Clarke on Corbyn linking terror to foreign policy: "I haven't taken Jeremy’s advice on security matters for yrs. He’s simply wrong"

While i agree Iraq was a terrible mistake, i dont think its the right move from Corbyn

ISIS just wouldn't exist without the Iraq war and the US/UK involvement in Syria. And Libya is also relevant here.

[Silent Hunter]

So whatever happened to the theory that the terrorist attack in Manchester was 100% ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED to help the Tories?

It is only one poll. How far were YouGov off in 2015?

[YL]

Some quick points (other than the obvious "It's only one poll"...)

The 18-24 subsample in YouGov is tiny, in addition to the usual concern about subsamples.  So I'd be careful of reading too much into changes in it.

Electoral Calculus's seat prediction algorithm is doing wacky things, especially in Wales.

If the high Labour share really is coming from young people who haven't voted before, then based on past form I'll believe it when I see it.