UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Lumine]

I'm baffled as to how May has managed to blow up such a large polling lead.

[2952-0-0]

If the Conservatives lose their majority, or even if it's too small to give May a strong negotiating hand, home long will May last until she's forced out as party leader?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

After the March Westminster attack, Corbyn going after May for low police funding.

https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/867741555674796034

May was warned 2 years ago by Manchester police that cuts increased the risk of a terrorist attack.

http://www.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-warned-by-manchester-police-that-cuts-risked-terror-attack-2017-5?r=UK&IR=T

[Hnv1]

I think May should be pleased, an apparent closer race will galvanize Tory and other voters who don't want to see Jezza at no. 10 to go out and vote.

I'm also certain Labour is being overpolled and 38% is completely unlikely (it will require a huge swing in England as a Scottish return of voters is unlikely)

[Shadows]

Holy shi* - What age based polarization. If this is the result, then Labour has to be within 5-6%.

Age -                 18-24               25-49                50-64                65+
                    
Tory                      22                  31                     45                     67
Labour                  59                  48                     32                     19
Lib-Dem                14                  11                      9                       8
UKIP                      1                    3                       7                       4
Others                   4                    8                       7                        2

Others 8% (Total). Break-up - SNP/PYC - 5%, Greens - 2%

Previous Con Voters - 87/7/5/0 (Tory/Lab/Lib-Dem/UKIP)
Previous Lab Voters - 9/81/8/1
Previous Lib-Dem Voters - 8/35/51/2
Previous UKIP Voters - 55/13/5/26

Area Wise -

London - 36/48/2/2 (Tory/Lab/Lib-Dem/UKIP)
Rest of South - 51/30/12/5
Mid-lands/Wales - 46/39/8/5
North - 37/48/8/4
Scotland - 32/22/6/0 (SNP - 41%)

Will Vote -

18-24 - 63%
25-49 - 55%
50-64 - 69%
65+    - 76%

I don't know how much upside Labour has from here. Realistically, 10% of Lib-Dem is too high for Labour to do well. They have to pitch this as a Labour vs Tory battle & try to get more Lib-Dem vote (get Lib-Dem to 6% odd) as Lib-Dem vote can be a spoiler in many seats. Labour is taking 35% of previous Lib-Dem voters while Lib-Dem retain about half of their earlier voters.
 

[Shadows]

The polarization between young people (Labour) and old people (Tory) is really interesting and worrying at the same time.

This is like 2 generations in conflict with each other, much worse than the US but a general trend globally (maybe). If you look at the data, from immigration to health, it is like 2 opposite numbers among the 2 age groups & also very different concerns - 18-24 are concerned about healthcare, education, etc much more than the older voters.

I hope the conservatives realize what they are getting themselves into - A generation is coming into the voting age who are economically very left, strongly socially liberal, very pro-environment, less authoritarian - Where they will be getting 25-30% of the votes unless the opposing party nominates a terrible candidate. And the older voters who will vote for the conservatives will pass away with time. And the new generation replacing them will be more & more hostile !

[parochial boy]

The polarization between young people (Labour) and old people (Tory) is really interesting and worrying at the same time.

This is like 2 generations in conflict with each other, much worse than the US but a general trend globally (maybe). If you look at the data, from immigration to health, it is like 2 opposite numbers among the 2 age groups & also very different concerns - 18-24 are concerned about healthcare, education, etc much more than the older voters.

I hope the conservatives realize what they are getting themselves into - A generation is coming into the voting age who are economically very left, strongly socially liberal, very pro-environment, less authoritarian - Where they will be getting 25-30% of the votes unless the opposing party nominates a terrible candidate. And the older voters who will vote for the conservatives will pass away with time. And the new generation replacing them will be more & more hostile !

I'm not actually sure that the 18-24 generation are particularly to the left of older voters on most economic issues (certainly not things like taxes, if you look over historical polling crosstabs). But they are very definitely much more socially liberal and internationalist.

Although, as someone mentioned earlier, there is a hell of a lot of resentment towards the conservative party for the way it has deliberately targeted younger people (tuition fees, cutting housing benefits for under 21s, allowing house prices to spiral away, large scale redistribution of income towards pensioners, zero hour contracts, Brexit...).

A lot of the British people I know in their 20s are voting labour this time round, and are doing this as conservative or right wing identifying voters - it is just that the Tories have burned so many bridges with young people.

[Shadows]

Our approach will involve change at home and change abroad. At home, we will reverse the cuts to our emergency services and police. Austerity has to stop at the A&E ward and at the police station door. We cannot be protected and cared for on the cheap. There will be more police on the streets under a Labour Government. We will also change what we do abroad. Many experts, including professionals in our intelligence and security services have pointed to the connections between wars our government has supported or fought in other countries, such as Libya, and terrorism here at home.

That assessment in no way reduces the guilt of those who attack our children. Those terrorists will forever be reviled and implacably held to account for their actions. Protecting this country requires us to be both strong against terrorism and strong against the causes of terrorism. The blame is with the terrorists, but if we are to protect our people we must be honest about what threatens our security.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/05/jeremy-corbyn-speech-terrorism-and-foreign-policy-full-text

[Shadows]

The polarization between young people (Labour) and old people (Tory) is really interesting and worrying at the same time.

This is like 2 generations in conflict with each other, much worse than the US but a general trend globally (maybe). If you look at the data, from immigration to health, it is like 2 opposite numbers among the 2 age groups & also very different concerns - 18-24 are concerned about healthcare, education, etc much more than the older voters.

I hope the conservatives realize what they are getting themselves into - A generation is coming into the voting age who are economically very left, strongly socially liberal, very pro-environment, less authoritarian - Where they will be getting 25-30% of the votes unless the opposing party nominates a terrible candidate. And the older voters who will vote for the conservatives will pass away with time. And the new generation replacing them will be more & more hostile !

I'm not actually sure that the 18-24 generation are particularly to the left of older voters on most economic issues (certainly not things like taxes, if you look over historical polling crosstabs). But they are very definitely much more socially liberal and internationalist.

Although, as someone mentioned earlier, there is a hell of a lot of resentment towards the conservative party for the way it has deliberately targeted younger people (tuition fees, cutting housing benefits for under 21s, allowing house prices to spiral away, large scale redistribution of income towards pensioners, zero hour contracts, Brexit...).

A lot of the British people I know in their 20s are voting labour this time round, and are doing this as conservative or right wing identifying voters - it is just that the Tories have burned so many bridges with young people.

There is little doubt that the new generation is overwhelmingly socially liberal, uber pro-environment & against authoritarianism but compared to the older generation, they are much more economically left, prefer higher taxes on wealthy, support minimum wage increase & other left wing policies.

Look at this Yougov poll !

Topic - Taxation 

Who is more fit to handle this ?

Age -                 18-24               25-49                50-64                65+
                     
Tory                      18                  23                     33                      53
Labour                  43                  31                     27                      14
Lib-Dem                 8                   5                        6                       5
UKIP                      2                   2                        3                       1


Support for labour among 18-24 age group on other topics -

NHS - 59%
Immigration - 32%
Law & Order - 33%
Education & Schools - 58%
Unemployment - 43%
Economy - 38%
Housing - 51%
Brexit - 27%
Defense - 28%

Not only do the 18-24 group overwhelmingly think Labour's policies regarding taxation & unemployment are better than older voters, they also give overall high marks to Labour on that topic (25% resounding margin). This is all relative compared to how older folks think. Ofcourse when it comes to the economy, Education & Healthcare are even bigger draws for Labour (58/59% support)!

[adma]

I'm baffled as to how May has managed to blow up such a large polling lead.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Strange. On Predictit, the odds of the Conservatives winning less than 329 seats in the election (which I find really bullish) has zoomed to the top of betting boards but the odds of May staying as prime minister has inched up.

[jaichind]

Sun/SurveyMonkey poll

[Shadows]

Theresa May is asking the world's biggest countries to launch a crackdown on social media in an attempt to stop terrorism. The prime minister will ask governments to unite to regulate what tech companies like Google, Facebook and Twitter allow to be posted on their networks. By doing so, she will force them to remove "harmful" extremist content, she will suggest to G7 members at a meeting in Italy.

While Mrs May will acknowledge the industry has been taking action to remove extremist content, she will say they have not gone far enough and need to do more.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/g7-summit-2017-theresa-may-internet-crackdown-manchester-attack-world-leaders-online-cyber-a7756806.html

[ApatheticAustrian]

in most other countries this woud leave labour with a strong minority position.

in uk it is going to be a bloodbath.

[Shadows]

[warandwar]

I'm amazed at how many people on this thread think it's Good News! for Teresa May that Labour has cut their lead from 25 to 5-8 points.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Where is all the Very Serious analysis that Corbyn will lose in a landslide for the Tories?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Where is all the Very Serious analysis that Corbyn will lose in a landslide for the Tories?

he is going to, i guess....

the UK sys makes it quite possible.

[Barnes]

Where is all the Very Serious analysis that Corbyn will lose in a landslide for the Tories?

he is going to, i guess....

the UK sys makes it quite possible.

Again, both parties are getting a boost, negating gains that Labour could make.

Now, most of the seat forecasts have errors in their calculations, but this change in polling would see the Conservatives have something like a 150 seat majority over Labour and 50+ seats over all other parties.

Exceptations of breaking 400 seats were always silly and not likely to hold up. 

[Hnv1]

May words on Corbyn's terror speech:



Both Lab and Tories using Manchester terror attack for "cheap political gain"
This kind of thing is really annoying and frustrating,
SHAME ON THEM BOTH!!!

tbf I am not a fan of Corbyn at all, but he didn't use it but rather put forward his political insight to how to fight terror the Tories responded in a campaign manner if anything

[Shadows]

Theresa May faces disaster after new poll finds Corbyn slashing her majority to just 2 seats

Theresa May risks being ousted from Downing Street after a shock new poll suggests Labour could be on course to cut her majority down to just two seats. The YouGov poll for the Times found that the Conservatives are on 43%, just five points ahead of Labour on 38%. The prime minister called the snap election last month in order to "strengthen my mandate" in Brexit negotiations. If repeated on a universal swing on June 8th, today's poll would see Labour take eight seats from the Conservatives with May's party failing to gain any from Labour.

http://www.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-general-election-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-labour-conservatives-majority-two-seats-2017-5?IR=T

Seat Projection with Universal Swing -

Labour - Gain of 10 Seats (8 from Tories, 1 from SNP, 1 from Lib-Dem)
Con - Loss of 4 seats (8 Lost to Labour, 1 Gain from UKIP, 2 from Lib-Dem, 1 from SNP)

Seat Projection - (Majority Mark - 326, Total 650 Seats)

Conservative - 326
Labour - 242
SNP - 54
Lib-Dem - 5
UKIP - 0
Others - Unchanged estimated

[Silent Hunter]

Corbyn is oversimplifying matters. People engage in terrorism for a lot of reasons.

[Vega]

Odd how people would describe Corbyn as weird. For all the things he is, I wouldn't say he is that weird.

[EnglishPete]

May words on Corbyn's terror speech:



Both Lab and Tories using Manchester terror attack for "cheap political gain"
This kind of thing is really annoying and frustrating,
SHAME ON THEM BOTH!!!

tbf I am not a fan of Corbyn at all, but he didn't use it but rather put forward his political insight to how to fight terror the Tories responded in a campaign manner if anything

Corbyn didn't 'use his political insight on how to fight terror'. He was arguing, in his usual weasel worded way, that the terrorists should be given what they want. This is not a one off for him. For the past forty years he has consistently defended and made excuses for anti British and anti western dictators and terrorists. He always excuses the motives of the terrorists, he always condemns and UK or Western effort fighting against them. And he always suggests that the solution is to give in to the terrorist (justifiable in his view) demands.

All the while he'll pretend with weasel words he doesn't actually support anti-British and anti-Western terrorism and he'll get on his hypocritical high horse and pretend to be misrepresented whenever anyone points out that that's exactly what he's doing.

[Blair]

This isn't part of Theresa May's grand plan to boost turnout- she's ran a boring, useless campaign, and it frankly shows that there is no-one at the top who's got any GE experience. Corbyn's team at least have ran two leadership elections; and know how retail politics works.

This election could have shades of 2010; very good campaign reduces damage by unpopular leader, whilst tory seen as a shoe in fails to meet expectations