UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[DC Al Fine]

British Jews used to vote Labour by similar margins. Labour, especially under Corbyn but even before then the 'anti-Zionist' 'boycott Israel' nutjobs have been getting more and more closing linked with the left and the Labour party.

I suspect that in the Democratic Party the breaks have been put on much more against this tendency because the Jewish vote is proportionately much higher and the Muslim vote proportionately much lower than in the UK. I suspect that once this tendency reaches a certain critical mass within the Democrats you'll see a similar migration of Jewish votes in the US.

Don't underestimate the vast cultural and political difference between British Jews and American Jews. This is the most important factor. Everything else is less important. But the difference between the Tories and the Republicans matters a great deal too.

Could you elaborate on the cultural differences?

[vileplume]

A quick question: how would one place Lib Dems on the ideological scale? I assume they are between Blair's Labour and Corbyn's Labour, but not entirely sure.

I think many of us in Britain are still trying to figure that out. Beyond being very pro-EU and broadly socially liberal most of their campaigns are run around local politics (potholes, bin collection etc.) and telling different groups of voters exactly what they want to hear. For example it is quite common for them to put out leaflets in inner city areas attacking Labour from the left whilst in the suburbs/home counties they present themselves more as a nicer version of the Tories. This is why they collapsed so badly in 2015 because the coalition they had built in the '97-'10 period was made up areas with vastly diverging ideological leans e.g. student heavy left wing areas like Bristol West, well to do right leaning areas like Cheadle, rural farming areas like Somerton and Frome and gritty working class areas like Burnley. Thus when they had to actually govern their electoral coalition broke apart and scattered in all directions with those of a more right leaning persuasion going Tory, those of a more left leaning persuasion going Labour/Green and the general anti-establishment, protest vote going UKIP.

[Tintrlvr]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

Also, the Republicans are not the Tories in a wide variety of ways (in particular with regard to their respective relationships with organized, especially evangelical, Christianity), though not to diminish your point.

[vileplume]

British Jews used to vote Labour by similar margins. Labour, especially under Corbyn but even before then the 'anti-Zionist' 'boycott Israel' nutjobs have been getting more and more closing linked with the left and the Labour party.

I suspect that in the Democratic Party the breaks have been put on much more against this tendency because the Jewish vote is proportionately much higher and the Muslim vote proportionately much lower than in the UK. I suspect that once this tendency reaches a certain critical mass within the Democrats you'll see a similar migration of Jewish votes in the US.

Don't underestimate the vast cultural and political difference between British Jews and American Jews. This is the most important factor. Everything else is less important. But the difference between the Tories and the Republicans matters a great deal too.

Could you elaborate on the cultural differences?

I can't really comment on American Jews however I suspect that if the Republican Party was anything like the UK Conservative Party (i.e. secular, more socially liberal, more pragmatic etc.) and the Democratic Party was anything like the UK Labour Party (i.e. run by the Bernie wing, much more sceptical of Israel, a small but vocal minority with anti-Semitic views etc.) then I suspect that American Jews would have already realigned themselves into a solidly Republican voting block as they have realigned over here.

[Blair]

A quick question: how would one place Lib Dems on the ideological scale? I assume they are between Blair's Labour and Corbyn's Labour, but not entirely sure.

There wherever there voters want them to be. The party is largely a collection of social democrats (Vince Cable, Tim Farron) and traditional liberals (Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander) which is how the party formed in the 1980s; when the SDP joined the liberal party.

[Tintrlvr]

A quick question: how would one place Lib Dems on the ideological scale? I assume they are between Blair's Labour and Corbyn's Labour, but not entirely sure.

There wherever there voters want them to be. The party is largely a collection of social democrats (Vince Cable, Tim Farron) and traditional liberals (Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander) which is how the party formed in the 1980s; when the SDP joined the liberal party.

Although this can be too reductionist. Most modern prominent Lib Dem figures joined after the two parties merged, and those figures who did originate in one of the two predecessor parties do not necessarily match their expected ideological faction.

I actually think the Lib Dems and the US Democrats are pretty ideologically close, all things considered, at least insofar as trans-Atlantic comparisons are possible.

[vileplume]

Yes, I believe the trend among Hindu voters came up very clearly at the mayoral election last year. Although, having said that, I feel that the Hindu (or even British Indian) vote is becoming quite class bound, as places like Feltham and Heston or Ealing Southall, which have large Hindu (although admittedly larger Sikh) populations have not been trending Tory at all.

I have also seen it proposed that British Asians whose families immigrated from Kenya or Uganda tend to be a much stronger Conservative constituency than those who came from the subcontinent, which would explain the trend in Harrow in particular.

I agree with regards to class Brent (which is poorer than Harrow) has not seen any noticeable reversal in the huge trend against the Tories which happened in the late 90s and early 00s though the trend does seem to have stopped and the Tories position doesn't seem to be getting any worse. It does increasingly seem as though wealthier Hindus will become increasingly Tory whilst poorer ones will remain Labour (which I guess is similar to the rest of society).

I heard that too about Ugandan Asians indeed Priti Patel is of Ugandan Asian decent. Perhaps the reason they are strongly Tory is because it was a Conservative government that took them in when they were expelled by Idi Amin in 1972 but more likely is the fact that they were the social/economic elite of Uganda prior to their expulsion (according to Wikipedia they made up 1% of the population but earned 20% of the income) which predisposed them to vote Conservative. .

With regards to the sub-continent I think there might also be a north-south dynamic going on. I think those with roots in the north are more Tory whilst those with roots in the south are more Labour (don't quote me on this though as I don't know for sure).

[Boston Bread]

How reasonable is this seat projection from Yougov? It suggests Labour gaining a lot of seats and Tories falling short of a majority. https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/869662208892030976

[DavidB.]

British Jews used to vote Labour by similar margins. Labour, especially under Corbyn but even before then the 'anti-Zionist' 'boycott Israel' nutjobs have been getting more and more closing linked with the left and the Labour party.

I suspect that in the Democratic Party the breaks have been put on much more against this tendency because the Jewish vote is proportionately much higher and the Muslim vote proportionately much lower than in the UK. I suspect that once this tendency reaches a certain critical mass within the Democrats you'll see a similar migration of Jewish votes in the US.

Don't underestimate the vast cultural and political difference between British Jews and American Jews. This is the most important factor. Everything else is less important. But the difference between the Tories and the Republicans matters a great deal too.

Could you elaborate on the cultural differences?

Jews across the diaspora are often more progressive or left-wing than the "ethnic natives" of their countries, but American Jews stand out in this regard. As a group, they are more progressive both in their political outlook and in their religious outlook than other diaspora populations (the Reform movement is much, much stronger in the U.S. than anywhere else in the world). The history of immigration, anti-Semitism and "being refugees" is simply part of the American Jewish DNA. Of course Jews in other diaspora countries carry this history with them as well, but it's often less pronounced, less of an important aspect to their (our) identity. American Jews take being progressive and considering "social justice" in the modern sense of the phrase to be important to a completely different level, even if similar Jewish movements exist outside the U.S. too.

As others (and I myself) said, however, the difference between UK politics and U.S. politics, between Labour and the Democrats, and between the Tories and the GOP matter a great deal too. Many American Jews are very secular, yet America is relatively religious and religion is important to American politics. Therefore, most Jews in the U.S. really dislike Christian politics, yet Christian politics have become a highly important component of GOP politics, which automatically draws Jews to the Democratic Party. In UK politics, however, class is the main dividing line and religion is less important (to politics in general and, therefore, also to both parties' politics), making the Conservatives more palatable to Jews than the Republicans. Add in the fact that UK Jews live in a European context where antisemitic attacks from radical Muslims are the biggest threat to Jewish communities, which is simply not the case in the U.S. (where the far right is probably the biggest threat), and that anti-Israeli sentiments are much more mainstream in British politics than in U.S. politics, and you see how British Jews come to different conclusions.

Of course it's difficult to say which aspect is more important, since they've obviously influenced each other.

[ApatheticAustrian]

only 8 points would be a shocker....

[SATW]

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/labour-support-just-13-per-cent-among-uk-jews-1.439325

Survation poll of Jewish voters. Unsurprisingly Corbyn epically tanking:

Tory: 77% (+10)
Labour: 13% (-5)
Lib Dem: 7% (+5)

While the Jewish population in Britain is small they are quite heavily concentrated in several constituencies such as Bury South, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Hertsmere (the first three of these being marginal/semi-marginal).

Jewish voters believe that Labour is the most anti-Semitic party (worse than UKIP) whilst the Tories are the least anti-Semitic.

No surprise here.

[Lachi]

The polls should really be averaged out for a more clearer picture, as over the last week we have seen polls showing results from all over the place, from the CON+4 YouGov poll, to a ICM/Sun poll showing the Tories ahead by 14.

[Holmes]

fwiw, if Labour didn't have such a sh**t leader, they'd probably bending better.

[mencken]

I've had limited news for the last two weeks - how did Labor suddenly rise from the dead?

[Lachi]

I've had limited news for the last two weeks - how did Labor suddenly rise from the dead?

The tories have had an absolutely horrid, and abysmal campaign

[Mike88]

The YouGov poll is just nonsense. I think, and i believe i already said this here, polls are once again overestimating Labour. The Tories are confortable ahead by around 10% IMO. On election night the exit poll will probably be bad for Labour and David Dimbleby, or who the BBC will choose to cover election night, will ask John Curtice what the hell is going on and by 4am everybody will say that he's a genius. It will 2015 all over again i'm afraid.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

fwiw, if Labour didn't have such a sh**t leader, they'd probably bending better.

And this was from before the Labour manifesto boosted them in the polls.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leader-tony-blair-support-election-2017-uk-prime-minister-polls-a7740921.html

Tony Blair would win fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, new poll reveals

GfK poll showed that

31% will vote for a party led by Corbyn
23% will vote for a party led by Blair
24% will vote for a party led by Miliband
25% will voet for a party led by Cooper

It seems even if Corbyn leads LAB to a historic defeat he is still the best they got.

[_]

The YouGov poll is just nonsense. I think, and i believe i already said this here, polls are once again overestimating Labour. The Tories are confortable ahead by around 10% IMO. On election night the exit poll will probably be bad for Labour and David Dimbleby, or who the BBC will choose to cover election night, will ask John Curtice what the hell is going on and by 4am everybody will say that he's a genius. It will 2015 all over again i'm afraid.

If anything this poll is going to help the Tories.  Its going to get anyone who thought "Hey I like May but I want to limit her power so she doesn't do something crazy" to vote Tory on the 8th to stop the "Unelectable Nonsense Chaos Terrorist" from getting into Number 10.  As well as boosting traditional Tory turnout to stop Corbyn.

[ApatheticAustrian]

young people LOVE corbyn...and are not going to vote.

[mgop]

that yougov poll looks more accurate that any other we seen during this campaign

[Lachi]

young people LOVE corbyn...and are not going to vote.

Yes, BECAUSE THEY HAVE EXAMS TO WORRY ABOUT!!!
Puting the election right in the middle of exam week was a dick move, and probably done that way to make sure the CONservatives would win.

[MAINEiac4434]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

and most importantly us-democrats are not corbyn labourites.

where would one put corbyn on an americanized scale? bernie sanders, hillary clinton, or something in between?

I think he'd be to the left of even Bernie.

[MaxQue]

I've had limited news for the last two weeks - how did Labor suddenly rise from the dead?

Pretty much Conservatives running one of the worst campaigns of the western world in the last decade.

[henster]

What type of loss would it take for Corbyn to step down? It seems Labour is past the wipe out phase, I wonder if even a net gain of few seats is enough to keep him around or would he stay even if they lost seats?

[Matty]

The tories need to get some advice from TRUMP on how to win elections.