UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Vosem]

Bring back David Cameron imo

[henster]

I refuse to credit Corbyn, Labour is doing well in spite of him it is easy to run an incumbent government especially one that isn't being managed well.

[ApatheticAustrian]

[TheSaint250]

@joncstone
Obviously worth remembering that YouGov's final 2015 seat prediction did not exactly go as planned

In their defense, a lot of polls were off that year.

Not in their defense, wow that was really bad

[TheSaint250]

@joncstone
Obviously worth remembering that YouGov's final 2015 seat prediction did not exactly go as planned

In their defense, a lot of polls were off that year.

Not in their defense, wow that was really bad

well we will know the actually results by 9th of June

but the fact that the tories are losing seats is just wishful thinking, I wish it was true as a centre left voter ...

despite terrible tory campaign, in the doorsteps people still prefer May over Corbyn by a country mile


@edballs
It's a concerning trend that polls now often driving the news - and becoming political events in themselves. Same true in 2015.

^^ couldn't agree more

@Ed_Miliband
 The pollsters have been off my Christmas card list since 2015. #justsaying

This has been such a crazy time for pollsters, though. In 2016, they didn't predict President Trump, so everyone mistrusted them, but in the Netherlands and France, the polls were pretty much dead-on.

It's hurts my head thinking about whether they are gonna be right or not

[thumb21]

young people LOVE corbyn...and are not going to vote.

Yes, BECAUSE THEY HAVE EXAMS TO WORRY ABOUT!!!
Puting the election right in the middle of exam week was a dick move, and probably done that way to make sure the CONservatives would win.

Voting takes 10, 20, at most 30 minutes. Students aren't stuck in an exam room for the entire exam season. It's a poor excuse.

[thumb21]

What type of loss would it take for Corbyn to step down? It seems Labour is past the wipe out phase, I wonder if even a net gain of few seats is enough to keep him around or would he stay even if they lost seats?

Gaining seats is not winning. Labour is a party of government, not a party of opposition. We need to be winning elections. Preferably someone who has his popular policies but doesn't have his stupid baggage should replace Corbyn after the election. I'm sick of Labour supporters celebrating that we are 7-8 points behind. We should be ahead!

[Former President tack50]

@joncstone
Obviously worth remembering that YouGov's final 2015 seat prediction did not exactly go as planned

In their defense, a lot of polls were off that year.

Not in their defense, wow that was really bad

well we will know the actually results by 9th of June

but the fact that the tories are losing seats is just wishful thinking, I wish it was true as a centre left voter ...

despite terrible tory campaign, in the doorsteps people still prefer May over Corbyn by a country mile


@edballs
It's a concerning trend that polls now often driving the news - and becoming political events in themselves. Same true in 2015.

^^ couldn't agree more

@Ed_Miliband
 The pollsters have been off my Christmas card list since 2015. #justsaying

This has been such a crazy time for pollsters, though. In 2016, they didn't predict President Trump, so everyone mistrusted them, but in the Netherlands and France, the polls were pretty much dead-on.

It's hurts my head thinking about whether they are gonna be right or not

I don't know about the Netherlands, but in France the polls were actually quite a bit off as well, but in the opposite direction! Macron was expected to win by something like 61-39 and ended up winning 66-34.

That's a larger polling error than Trump, Brexit and even the 2015 UK election depending on how you count it

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/861281153239724033?lang=es

[Former President tack50]

What type of loss would it take for Corbyn to step down? It seems Labour is past the wipe out phase, I wonder if even a net gain of few seats is enough to keep him around or would he stay even if they lost seats?

Gaining seats is not winning. Labour is a party of government, not a party of opposition. We need to be winning elections. Preferably someone who has his popular policies but doesn't have his stupid baggage should replace Corbyn after the election. I'm sick of Labour supporters celebrating that we are 7-8 points behind. We should be ahead!

Considering there are at least 30 seats or so in Scotland that went to the SNP and probably will not come back in the short term, Labour winning even if they don't get a majority is probably a huge victory already. Hell, just getting a hung parliament where SNP+Labour have a majority would already be victory for Labour! (those Scottish seats aren't coming back)

[thumb21]

What type of loss would it take for Corbyn to step down? It seems Labour is past the wipe out phase, I wonder if even a net gain of few seats is enough to keep him around or would he stay even if they lost seats?

Gaining seats is not winning. Labour is a party of government, not a party of opposition. We need to be winning elections. Preferably someone who has his popular policies but doesn't have his stupid baggage should replace Corbyn after the election. I'm sick of Labour supporters celebrating that we are 7-8 points behind. We should be ahead!

Considering there are at least 30 seats or so in Scotland that went to the SNP and probably will not come back in the short term, Labour winning even if they don't get a majority is probably a huge victory already. Hell, just getting a hung parliament where SNP+Labour have a majority would already be victory for Labour! (those Scottish seats aren't coming back)

Not really. SNP+Labour majority would be a lose lose scenario for Labour and would be a complete disaster for Labour's long term. If Labour wants to get anywhere, it has to aim for an outright majority. Recent polls are suggesting a Labour rebound at this point in Scotland which is good. Better leadership and by 2022, by then a deeply unpopular Conservative government and a declining SNP, I like Labour would have a good chance.

[Lachi]

young people LOVE corbyn...and are not going to vote.

Yes, BECAUSE THEY HAVE EXAMS TO WORRY ABOUT!!!
Puting the election right in the middle of exam week was a dick move, and probably done that way to make sure the CONservatives would win.

Voting takes 10, 20, at most 30 minutes. Students aren't stuck in an exam room for the entire exam season. It's a poor excuse.

Yes, but what will be a higher priority for a student? Voting, or studying for other exams? Surely you can't say that studying is a poor excuse during exam time?

[Former President tack50]

young people LOVE corbyn...and are not going to vote.

Yes, BECAUSE THEY HAVE EXAMS TO WORRY ABOUT!!!
Puting the election right in the middle of exam week was a dick move, and probably done that way to make sure the CONservatives would win.

Voting takes 10, 20, at most 30 minutes. Students aren't stuck in an exam room for the entire exam season. It's a poor excuse.

Yes, but what will be a higher priority for a student? Voting, or studying for other exams? Surely you can't say that studying is a poor excuse during exam time?

I guess students could vote by mail if they so chose? Or does the UK require an excuse?

[vileplume]

How reasonable is this seat projection from Yougov? It suggests Labour gaining a lot of seats and Tories falling short of a majority. https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/869662208892030976

The voting intention data in that YouGov model has the Tories only 4% ahead:
CON 42%
LAB 38%
LD 9%
Collected over last week.





its another worthless poll


here in Plymouth Moor View, a seat the tories gained from labour in 2015 with a majority of 1,026 (2.4%)
both tory and labour activists predict the tories will win by 8-10% majority

this poll doesn't reflect the reality in the marginals

 

Plus I suspect the Times has an ulterior motive in publishing this on their front page namely to scare the Tory vote out of complacency to ensure that they actually vote to 'stop Corbyn' despite the Tories terrible campaign. Notice this seat 'projection' is cleverly placed next to a story about Corbyn and anti-Semitism. Whilst Tory high command may be totally clueless the Tory media is not.

[Helsinkian]

where would one put corbyn on an americanized scale? bernie sanders, hillary clinton, or something in between?

Jill Stein.

[Shadows]

Meyon had never been interested in politics before. But her brushes with homelessness convinced her that getting involved in politics was the best way to change society. She hopes the main opposition Labour Party -- and more specifically, Jeremy Corbyn, the party's leader -- can change things. "He's a man for the people," she said.

Investment banker Michael Odunlami, 22, who is sitting at the same table as Kismet and also comes from a working-class background, says he too will be voting Labour -- unlike many of his colleagues.
"I haven't felt this passionate about a leader, ever," he said. "I remember watching Obama win in 2008 and thinking, 'this is amazing,' but I was too young to really understand."

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/30/europe/uk-election-young-voters/

Office for National Statistics (ONS) and national polling data and estimated that under-25s could have “a significant impact” in defending 32 Labour marginals. It also estimated 12 Tory marginals could be ripe for the taking by either Labour or the Liberal Democrats if enough under-25s voted.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/28/can-the-young-first-time-voters-swing-general-election

[thumb21]

young people LOVE corbyn...and are not going to vote.

Yes, BECAUSE THEY HAVE EXAMS TO WORRY ABOUT!!!
Puting the election right in the middle of exam week was a dick move, and probably done that way to make sure the CONservatives would win.

Voting takes 10, 20, at most 30 minutes. Students aren't stuck in an exam room for the entire exam season. It's a poor excuse.

Yes, but what will be a higher priority for a student? Voting, or studying for other exams? Surely you can't say that studying is a poor excuse during exam time?

It takes about thirty minutes. Anyone who is studying to the extent that they can't take a 30 minutes break to vote should probably reconsider their work-life balance. It's not really very healthy. And you have other options like mail ballots and voting by proxy.

[DC Al Fine]

young people LOVE corbyn...and are not going to vote.

Yes, BECAUSE THEY HAVE EXAMS TO WORRY ABOUT!!!
Puting the election right in the middle of exam week was a dick move, and probably done that way to make sure the CONservatives would win.

Voting takes 10, 20, at most 30 minutes. Students aren't stuck in an exam room for the entire exam season. It's a poor excuse.

Yes, but what will be a higher priority for a student? Voting, or studying for other exams? Surely you can't say that studying is a poor excuse during exam time?

It takes about thirty minutes. Anyone who is studying to the extent that they can't take a 30 minutes break to vote should probably reconsider their work-life balance. It's not really very healthy. And you have other options like mail ballots and voting by proxy.

And, come on, you think people aged 25-65 aren't busy? I have a full time job, a longish commute, and a newborn. I had waaaaayyyy more time in university, even in exam time.

[jaichind]

STV election poll Scotland



SNP   43
CON   25
LAB   25
LIB     5

[jaichind]

PanelbaseMD

CON     48 (+1)
LAB      33
LIB        7
UKIP      4
Green    2

But CNBC reports: "However, the previous survey used a different methodology to Wednesday's poll, and included those who were not certain to vote. If Wednesday's poll had used the previous poll's methodology, it would have shown the Conservatives' opinion poll lead narrowing by 6 percentage points, Panelbase said."

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-31/when-is-a-poll-not-a-poll-when-it-s-a-u-k-election-projection

Has "A person familiar with the projection model, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it had also been successful in the 2016 U.S. presidential vote."

But looking at

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/

it seems the model did not work at all.    If anything this projection is worse than the uselectionatlas medium guess

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php

[Former President tack50]

STV election poll Scotland



SNP   43
CON   25
LAB   25
LIB     5

Assuming an even swing in Scotland, that would mean:

SNP 51
Con 4
Lib 2
Lab 2

Of course it probably won't be an even swing but still.

[jaichind]

STV election poll Scotland



SNP   43
CON   25
LAB   25
LIB     5

Assuming an even swing in Scotland, that would mean:

SNP 51
Con 4
Lib 2
Lab 2

Of course it probably won't be an even swing but still.

It seems STV put these results into the  Electoral Calculus website website and got

[Blair]

It takes me longer to shower than it does to walk to the polling station down the round; it's like when people say 'oh but students will be leaving uni' it's like yeah, but we're smart enough to work out where it's more beneficial to vote.

The people who generally won't vote will be people who don't give a sh**t about politics; not people too engrossed in revision

[jaichind]

Jeremy Corbyn Said to Take Part in U.K. TV Debate Tonight

[Phony Moderate]

Jeremy Corbyn Said to Take Part in U.K. TV Debate Tonight

Amber Rudd is standing in for Theresa May.