UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Former President tack50]

I mean that's an incredibly dumb thing to believe for lots of reasons (biggest for me other than the inclusion of bloody Trump in a list of politicians who are on the left was... Schultz?  I mean I like the guy for a few reasons (I'm a lot more pro-EU than I was a few months back), but he's not exactly on the left of the SPD - pro-TTIP for example which I disagree with a lot) but disagreeing with a left politician isn't an excuse to support the Tories in anything, because the policies of the latter are bad and you should oppose them - unless you like the idea of stealing the homes of dementia patients...

1) My views aren't dumb. 2) I'm a moderate democrat, something I forgot to include. 3) we are here to talk about the British election.

Fine, let's make it about the British election. Why as a moderate centrist and democrat do you think that Theresa May is the best PM for Britain? I can get why you would dislike Corbyn, but even in that case Theresa May seems just as bad.

Wouldn't Tim Farron and the Lib Dems be a lot closer to your political beliefs?

[Former President tack50]

Also, who won the debate? And will it change anything? (Macron for example did improve quite a bit after his debate with Le Pen, but that election barely resembles the British one)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Also, who won the debate? And will it change anything? (Macron for example did improve quite a bit after his debate with Le Pen, but that election barely resembles the British one)

Well from what I have heard there was really no defining moment in the debate so probably no change. Although Labour-dominated Twitter was head-over-heels for Corbyn as usual.

[IceAgeComing]

Also, who won the debate? And will it change anything? (Macron for example did improve quite a bit after his debate with Le Pen, but that election barely resembles the British one)

Well from what I have heard there was really no defining moment in the debate so probably no change. Although Labour-dominated Twitter was head-over-heels for Corbyn as usual.

so based on your previous analysis I expect to say Labour to go up in the polls now

[Antonio the Sixth]

The tories need to get some advice from TRUMP on how to win elections.

They have Jim Messina, who can actually do it and win the popular vote...

Jim Messina is also the guy who advised Renzi on the constitutional referendum...

But anyway, I'm pretty sure Tories are underpolling and in the end they'll still win by 7-10.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

y name does give that thought.

An apt username for you would be Dunning-Kruger.

[Suburbia]

If the Conservatives lose this election to Jeremy Corbyn, a far left Marxist-type man, May should resign as Leader of the Conservative Party. They should put Prita Patel, a no-nonsense woman to lead conservative politics.

Some of Corbyn's policies, I agree with, like trying to reduce income inequality, combating climate change, but as a centrist, I don't like some of his hard core leftism.

We'll see. A Prime Minister Corbyn would lead to a lot of craziness in Britain. He's too weak on defense, I fear.

However, a surprising Labour 2017 victory would lead to lots of soul-searching for U.K. Conservatives. Brexit 2016 was the cause, most likely.

[Suburbia]

I wonder how Kinnock, Blair, Brown would react to a surprising Corbyn Labour victory?

It would make Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have a bit of hope, International Leftism may be making a resurgence in the 2010s.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

y name does give that thought.

An apt username for you would be Dunning-Kruger.

Do you ever get tired of hurdling pointless and ineffective insults at people? It's pathetic.

[GlobeSoc]

Corbyn seems like he'll end up in power in 2022, if he's doing this well at a time that the neoliberal consensus is still relatively strong.

Especially since he is probably a decently skilled and competent politician, which is being masked by the right-leaning UK media and the PLP. The crisis that would come to sweep Cordray or some other populist dem into the oval office would lift these barriers in Corbyn's way.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Would Labour be able to survive a second election even if the Conservatives are short of a majority?

[Shadows]

The new Yougov poll is very interesting. Labour is decimating Green/SNP in the 18-24 vote. SNP/PSY & Greens had 6% & 3% of the 18-24 vote in the last yougov poll (43/38 one). In this one, SNP/PYC with 1% & Greens with 0% of the 18-24 people.

The small Lab surge is because of 65+ vote. Last poll, Tories had a lead of +50% (66/16), in this one the lead falls to +37% (60/23).


Voting % considered -

18-24 - 62%
25-49 - 61%
50-64 - 67%
65+ - 74%

Tories have a lot of problem in the polls -

Election promises are honest/dishonest -

Tory - 24/51 (-27), Lab - 35/35 (0), Lib-Dem - 25/29 (-4), UKIP - 16/45 (-29)

Election campaign has been positive/negative -

Tory - 33/43 (-9), Lab - 43/40 (+13), Lin-Dem - 27/31 (-4), UKIP - 14/46 (-32)

Best policies for the country

Tory - 32, Lab - 33, Lin-Dem - 6, UKIP - 4

Best policies for your family

Tory - 29, Lab - 35, Lin-Dem - 6, UKIP - 4

Election campaign - Good/Bad

Tory - 35/46 (-11), Lab - 43/39 (+4), Lib-Dem - 20/46 (-26), UKIP - 7/58 (-51)

Labour voters - If Tories win a large majority & Lab loses seats, should Corbyn resign as the leader?

Corbyn should stay - 53%, Corbyn should resign - 37%

Labour voters - If Tories win with a small majority & Lab wins more seats, should Corbyn resign as the leader?

Corbyn should stay - 77%, Corbyn should resign - 16%


There is going to be no leadership challenge it seems. With the way polls are going, the party is seemingly mostly united behind Corbyn !

[Shadows]

BTW Labour is falling in Scotland & Tories are holding strong. Scotland is going to give Tories the majority.

In my seat calculator, with this Yougov poll this was the result -

Tories - 336 (+5)
Lab - 246 (+14)
Lib-Dem - 6 (-2)
SNP - 46 (-10)

Scotland will be interesting. Tories are doing well there & if the SNP loses double-digit support, Tories will pick quite a few seats there !

Area wise Voting -

London - 38/49 (Lab +11, Last Yougov had Lab +6)
Rest of South - 51/32 (Tory +19, Last Yougov had Tory +25)
Mid-land/Wales - 41/42 (Lab +1, Last Yougov had Lab +4)
North - 39/40 (Lab +11, Last Yougov had Lab +11)
Scotland - 28/20/42 (Last Yougov poll was 30/25/40)

Labour has to to do better in Mid-land/Wales if it wants more seats !

[Shadows]

Election debate: reaction and analysis after Jeremy Corbyn and party leaders spar – as it happened

There weren’t any stand-out winners, but most attention was focused on Jeremy Corbyn and he did well. His attack on Paul Nuttall over food banks was one of the highlights of the debate – he was authentic and passionate – and increasingly the CCHQ charge that he is an implausible PM seems to look less convincing. The other main figure on the stage tonight was Amber Rudd. In a six-against-one scenario she seemed to hold up quite credibly, and she wins the message discipline prize of the night for her constant jibes about Labour’s money tree.

As for the others, Tim Farron had some of the best soundbites of the evening, and his final line about not giving Theresa May your time, because she is not giving hers to you, was one of the best lines of the evening. Caroline Lucas (predictably) and Leanne Wood (a bit less predictably) had some outstanding moments. Their two-pronged attack on Rudd, over the Tories being in coalition with Ukip  was particularly effective. Angus Robertson was particularly effective when it came to challenging Nuttall on migration.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/31/general-election-2017-may-corbyn-bbc-debate-campaign-personal-politics-live

BBC debate: Rivals attack Theresa May over absence

Mr Corbyn told her: "Have you been to a food bank? Have you seen people sleeping around our stations? "Have you seen the levels of poverty that exist because of your government's conscious decisions on benefits?" Lib Dem leader Tim Farron launched a string of attacks on Mrs May. He said: "Where do you think Theresa May is tonight? "Take a look out your window. She might be out there sizing up your house to pay for your social care."

Green party co-leader Caroline Lucas said the "first rule of leadership is to show up". She added: "You don't say it's the most important election of our lifetime and not be bothered to show up." By polling day, tonight's event may be remembered more for the day that Mrs May didn't show, than anything that was actually said on the platform.


4 takeaways from the UK’s 7-party election debate

1. Corbyn’s coup - He didn’t land any killer blows but just by attending the debate and delivering a solid performance, Corbyn emerged the winner. On the night, Corbyn counterintuitively did not spend much time haranguing May for her no-show. “Her absence spoke for itself,” said one Labour campaign official. In practice, it enabled him to rise above the fray and focus on policy, not personality.  In one of his final statements Corbyn won warm applause for his condemnation of what he termed the Tories’ “spiv economy,” which he said “hands tax relief to the biggest corporations and the wealthiest people while ignoring the desperate cries for social help of so many people in our country.”

2. Rudd’s star rises

It emerged as the debate was ending that Rudd was attending despite the death of her father earlier this week. The Sun newspaper reported that 93-year-old Tony Rudd passed away on Monday. Her assured performance in such difficult circumstances will only burnish Rudd’s credentials as one of the leading lights at the top of her party — touted as a possible successor to the out-of-favor Chancellor Philip Hammond, if the Tories stay in government.

http://www.politico.eu/article/4-takeaways-from-the-uks-seven-party-election-debate/

[Lachi]

I averaged out all of the polls since the Manchester bombing, and this is the result I have got.

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 4

CON: 327 (-3), 40.8%
LAB: 240 (+8), 34%
LIB: 9 (+1), 7.6%
SNP: 50 (-5), 4%
UKIP: 0 (-1), 4.2%
GRN: 1  (0), 1.4%

[Polkergeist]

What is the unders and overs for May to come out of the election politically undamaged?

• Majority of 100
• Majority of 50
• Better than the current majority
• Any majority will do
• Remain on the Government benches

[Lachi]

Ideally for May, she would want, at the least, to have a slightly better majority, but I believe that she would be fine if she had any type of majority.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) -- Model projects U.K. Conservatives winning 285-353 seats, midpoint 317, increase of 6 seat from one day ago, YouGov says in Twitter post and on its website.
Labour projected to win 253 seats; range 219-285 seats
Liberal Democrats seen winning 9 seats, SNP may win 47 seats
YouGov model shows voting intention estimates as:
Conservative 42%
Labour 38%

[Shadows]

Debate - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnAeSqjSnio

BTW it was a pretty civilized & decent debate with a mix of townhall (questions) & debate format. 7 people were there trying to come in, but everyone is reasonably well behaved, the moderator was decent.

Very similar to a Democratic debate in US & way WAY better than the GOP debate. Very few personal insults & ofcourse the British are much well mannered & sober than the Americans. No crazy people in the stage like Ben Carson ! Ofcourse if you are a Tory fan, you won't like being called out on many poor policies, it was largely Conservatives + UKIP vs the rest. Occasionally Lib-Dem, SNP, Greens, Plaid will take some shots at Labour !

[Shadows]

Bloomberg) -- Model projects U.K. Conservatives winning 285-353 seats, midpoint 317, increase of 6 seat from one day ago, YouGov says in Twitter post and on its website.
Labour projected to win 253 seats; range 219-285 seats
Liberal Democrats seen winning 9 seats, SNP may win 47 seats
YouGov model shows voting intention estimates as:
Conservative 42%
Labour 38%

317 is still less than 326, the majority mark. Tories had a clear majority & openly said they want to increase it & hence called the election. May should step down for Rudd, who looked a much more formidable leader in the debate. From a 23% lead to now a 3 to 4% lead against an opposition leader ridiculed by the press, against whom the Tories refused to debate.

Labour is doing bad in Scotland & Tories look strong in Scotland. Wouldn't be surprised to see Scotland deciding if there will be a Tory majority. We have to follow the Scotland polls more meticulously (& perhaps Wales which is also very narrow between Lab/Con). If SNP loses 10 seats in Scotland to Tories, May will probably be PM !

[Shadows]

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/


Voting intention & seat estimates (Yougov Model)


Tory - 42% (317 Seats)
Lab - 38% (253 Seats)
Lib-Dems - 9% (9 seats)
UKIP - 3% (0 seats)
Green - 2% (1 seats)
SNP - 4% (47 seats)
Plaid Cymru - 1% (3 Seats)

Lab + SNP + Lib-Dem + Green + Plaid Cymru = 313 seats (13 seats short) vs 317 Tories (9 seats short) !

[mgop]

theresa may will pay for her greed and unnecessary election. it would be lovely if snp become kingmaker.

[libertpaulian]

What an awful candidate May is.  Her party should be crushing that of this Bolshevik by Reagan-Mondale margins.

[Blair]

What is the unders and overs for May to come out of the election politically undamaged?

• Majority of 100
• Majority of 50
• Better than the current majority
• Any majority will do
• Remain on the Government benches

Anything under a majority of 50 will be a major disappointment; and anything under 40 will be an abject failure where the men in the grey suits will arrive, and kick her out of office.

Ideally for May, she would want, at the least, to have a slightly better majority, but I believe that she would be fine if she had any type of majority.

She really wouldn't- at the start of the campaign CCHQ was going for seats with 8-10K majorities for Labour; and it was expected that they'd gain at least 40-50 seats. I'm sure the tory's internal polls are showing that they're still doing better.

The one take away is don't try and assign seats using models based on vote shares- we did that in 2015 and it completely failed

[Bumaye]

No evidence that giant polls are any better tbh.

True, it need not be. But 1/2K polls are usually meaningless.

 
  
Basically all polls for the French presidential election had sample sizes of 1.000 to 2.500 and they were spot on.   
 
 

[i
Election promises are honest/dishonest -

Tory - 24/51 (-27), Lab - 35/35 (0), Lib-Dem - 25/29 (-4), UKIP - 16/45 (-29)

Best policies for the country

Tory - 32, Lab - 33, Lin-Dem - 6, UKIP - 4

Best policies for your family

Tory - 29, Lab - 35, Lin-Dem - 6, UKIP - 4

Election campaign - Good/Bad

Tory - 35/46 (-11), Lab - 43/39 (+4), Lib-Dem - 20/46 (-26), UKIP - 7/58 (-51)

 
 
Who is the most honest? Labour. 
Who is best for the country? Labour. 
Who is best for your family? Labour. 
Who runs the best campaign? Labour. 
 
So Brits, who do you vote for? The Tories, d'uh. Corbyn is weird.