UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov poll of London:

Lab - 50% (+9)
Con - 33% (-3)
Lib Dems - 11% (-3)
UKIP - 3% (-3)
Greens - 2% (-1)

Would would make the better Prime Minister?:

Corbyn - 37%
May - 34%

[parochial boy]

YouGov poll of London:

Lab - 50% (+9)
Con - 33% (-3)
Lib Dems - 11% (-3)
UKIP - 3% (-3)
Greens - 2% (-1)

Would would make the better Prime Minister?:

Corbyn - 37%
May - 34%

If true, then that might actually put seats like Battersea into play...

Panelbase poll:
CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)


I read somewhere that Labour's internals are showing an even better picture (from my aunt's neighbour's milkman's cat's uncle - so take it with a massive fistful of salt).

[DL]

YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni (Wales Westminster):
CON 35 (+1)
LAB 46 (+2)
LD 5 (-1)
UKIP 5 (=)
PC 8 (-1)
29th-31st May
N=1,014

If those numbers in Wales hold - not only would Labour retain all ist current seats but it could even win back 2 or 3 extremely marginal Tory seats (i.e. Gower, Cardiff North and Vale of Clwyd)

[Silent Hunter]

YouGov are thinking that there will be a major increase in the youth vote... it may well happen but I remain sceptical. Labour may be close but they are not close enough.

[Dereich]

For what its worth The Economist is endorsing the Lib Dems. They endorsed Cameron in the last election.

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[MT Treasurer]

Christ, the age gap in these polls is astounding. In the latest YouGov poll, 18-24 year olds back Labour 69-19, while the 65+ group goes for the Tories by 37 points (60-23).

Hopefully there will be at least one poll before the election showing Labour ahead.

[mvd10]

So how long would May last if she wins about 330 seats?

[Horus]

@JewishNewsUK
THIS WEEK's @JewishNewsUK front page. @Theresa_May writes exclusively. @jeremycorbyn ... still tumbleweed.

Why should the leader of the UK proudly stand up for a foreign entity?

That headline makes me like Corbyn more.

[Zinneke]

@JewishNewsUK
THIS WEEK's @JewishNewsUK front page. @Theresa_May writes exclusively. @jeremycorbyn ... still tumbleweed.

Why should the leader of the UK proudly stand up for a foreign entity?

That headline makes me like Corbyn more.

In what way are British Jews foreign entities? EDIT : I just realised you meant the third point of the Con manifesto. I apologise.

YouGov are thinking that there will be a major increase in the youth vote... it may well happen but I remain sceptical. Labour may be close but they are not close enough.

Any increase in registrations? Or are they not counted?
Also is it fair to say registered voters are an indication of turnout or do still a sizeable part take the time to register but do not vote on the day?

[Horus]

@JewishNewsUK
THIS WEEK's @JewishNewsUK front page. @Theresa_May writes exclusively. @jeremycorbyn ... still tumbleweed.

Why should the leader of the UK proudly stand up for a foreign entity?

That headline makes me like Corbyn more.

In what way are British Jews foreign entities?

Israel =/= British Jews.

[DL]

Is this some ultra rightwing Jewish rag funded by people like Sheldon Adelson? I'm Jewish and i'm inured to this garbage

@JewishNewsUK
THIS WEEK's @JewishNewsUK front page. @Theresa_May writes exclusively. @jeremycorbyn ... still tumbleweed.

[Silent Hunter]

You did get a large number of late registrations ahead of the deadline... however, the turnout for the last four elections has been below 70% - the highest turnout electoral event since 1992 was the EU referendum.

If YouGov are assuming this big youth turnout and Labour are still falling short of largest party, with no-one else reliable even predicting a hung parliament, then May must be the favourite to get back in...

But that is reliant on the polls being right...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please take your sh!tposts elsewhere sh!tposters. You are not welcome here.

[parochial boy]

Panelbase poll:
CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

Apparently this was of 2015 voters only, so Panelbase are showing a single digit lead even when you rule out the "muh young voters won't turn out in the end" argument.

[Silent Hunter]

The number of seats Corbyn really must get more than is 209, which was the figure Michael Foot got in 1983.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder how many more dodgy constituency PROJECTIONS based on STATISTICAL MODELS (roflmao) we can expect over the next week.

[mgop]

@britainelects
Here's how we think the result would look if the election were held today:

CON 362 (+32)
LAB 206 (-26)





http://britainelects.com/nowcast/

looks very pro-tory. somebody will be surprised in a week.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

What are the chances for a Hung parliament. When I first brought it up I got laughed at and told May would win 400 seats!

I will still stick to my hung parliament to conservative majority of 30 prediction.

[kyc0705]

@britainelects
Here's how we think the result would look if the election were held today:

CON 362 (+32)
LAB 206 (-26)

http://britainelects.com/nowcast/

I believe this as much as I believe YouGov nailing it to the percentage.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

@britainelects
Here's how we think the result would look if the election were held today:

CON 362 (+32)
LAB 206 (-26)

http://britainelects.com/nowcast/

I believe this as much as I believe YouGov nailing it to the percentage.

This is way more realistic than the Yougov model (but I also think this is still underestimating the Tories, or maybe I'm insane, we'll see in a week)

[_]

Trusting any poll at this point is completely pointless, the election could be anywhere from a Labour Majority of 10 to the Tories at 400 Seats.  Just wait for the Exit Poll to come in on the 8th, then we look at the polls and see who was right.

[Lachi]

While I would like to see a hung parliament, I think that the tories will probably get a majority of around 10-15, with most of the gains being gains from the SNP, with Labour MAYBE picking up a few seats.

[Shadows]

'I don't think he needs my advice': Bernie Sanders applauds Jeremy Corbyn


“What has impressed me – and there is a real similarity between what he has done and what I did – is he has taken on the establishment of the Labour party, he has gone to the grassroots and he has tried to transform that party … and that is exactly what I am trying to do,” said Sanders. “I am also impressed by his willingness to talk about class issues,” he added during a sold-out speech at the Brighton festival. “Too many people run away from the grotesque levels of income and wealth inequality that exist in the United States, the UK and all over the world. We will never make the kind of changes we need unless we take on the levels of inequality that exist.”

“I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn needs my advice,” said the Vermont senator. “I think he is doing quite well. Nor do the people of the UK need my advice on who to vote for. I think they understand. But I have been very impressed by the campaign that he has been running and I wish him the very best.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/02/i-dont-think-he-needs-my-advice-bernie-sanders-applauds-jeremy-corbyn

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

'I don't think he needs my advice': Bernie Sanders applauds Jeremy Corbyn


“I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn needs my advice,” said the Vermont senator. “I think he is doing quite well. Nor do the people of the UK need my advice on who to vote for. I think they understand. But I have been very impressed by the campaign that he has been running and I wish him the very best.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/02/i-dont-think-he-needs-my-advice-bernie-sanders-applauds-jeremy-corbyn

I'm glad that he didn't endorse. That would just seem odd. Also, his brother is running as a Green in Oxford East.

[Shadows]

'I don't think he needs my advice': Bernie Sanders applauds Jeremy Corbyn


“I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn needs my advice,” said the Vermont senator. “I think he is doing quite well. Nor do the people of the UK need my advice on who to vote for. I think they understand. But I have been very impressed by the campaign that he has been running and I wish him the very best.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/02/i-dont-think-he-needs-my-advice-bernie-sanders-applauds-jeremy-corbyn

I'm glad that he didn't endorse. That would just seem odd. Also, his brother is running as a Green in Oxford East.

If he wins, great for Bernie. If he doesn't, he doesn't need to be tied to the Corbyn baggage (you endorsed X or Y blah blah) & his brother is running for the Green Party. But he has praised ideologically & the broader view economically what Corbyn is taking which is not dis-similar to him.

Anyways, it is important Corbyn holds the Labour party rather than it be held by the lackeys of the war criminal Tony Blair.