UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

'I don't think he needs my advice': Bernie Sanders applauds Jeremy Corbyn


“I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn needs my advice,” said the Vermont senator. “I think he is doing quite well. Nor do the people of the UK need my advice on who to vote for. I think they understand. But I have been very impressed by the campaign that he has been running and I wish him the very best.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/02/i-dont-think-he-needs-my-advice-bernie-sanders-applauds-jeremy-corbyn

I'm glad that he didn't endorse. That would just seem odd. Also, his brother is running as a Green in Oxford East.

If he wins, great for Bernie. If he doesn't, he doesn't need to be tied to the Corbyn baggage (you endorsed X or Y blah blah) & his brother is running for the Green Party. But he has praised ideologically & the broader view economically what Corbyn is taking which is not dis-similar to him.

Anyways, it is important Corbyn holds the Labour party rather than it be held by the lackeys of the war criminal Tony Blair.

I'd bet that Bernie wants Corbyn to win (and his brother to win that seat). I'm not sure if I'd prefer someone quite as far left as Corbyn, but I wouldn't want Blair back.

[Shadows]

'I don't think he needs my advice': Bernie Sanders applauds Jeremy Corbyn


“I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn needs my advice,” said the Vermont senator. “I think he is doing quite well. Nor do the people of the UK need my advice on who to vote for. I think they understand. But I have been very impressed by the campaign that he has been running and I wish him the very best.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/02/i-dont-think-he-needs-my-advice-bernie-sanders-applauds-jeremy-corbyn

I'm glad that he didn't endorse. That would just seem odd. Also, his brother is running as a Green in Oxford East.

If he wins, great for Bernie. If he doesn't, he doesn't need to be tied to the Corbyn baggage (you endorsed X or Y blah blah) & his brother is running for the Green Party. But he has praised ideologically & the broader view economically what Corbyn is taking which is not dis-similar to him.

Anyways, it is important Corbyn holds the Labour party rather than it be held by the lackeys of the war criminal Tony Blair.

I'd bet that Bernie wants Corbyn to win (and his brother to win that seat). I'm not sure if I'd prefer someone quite as far left as Corbyn, but I wouldn't want Blair back.

He's running on large parts of Corbyn's agenda - Tuition free college, better funded universal healthcare, more education funding, free childcare, massive infrastructure investment, higher minimum wage, no cuts to welfare, ban fracking, no to stupid wars, higher taxes on wealthy, combating wealth inequality, no stupid internet regulation !

It is broadly similar. Ofcourse Corbyn goes into re-nationalization etc (which Sanders doesn't support)   but broadly in terms of economic outline, they are similar & very VERY different form the conservative party.

Let us not forget politics in UK & US are in some linked (maybe co-incidence). Thatcher won in 1979 I think & then in some ways her twin Reagan (who along with Thatcher was a disaster) won in 1980 to create a radical conservative era. Then you had Bill Clinton winning in 1992 with "New Democrats", the 3rd way somewhat conservative faction & then you had Blair 1997 odd with New Labour. In many ways Corbyn & Sanders can define a new era for the left (although I don't think Corbyn anywhere as good as Sanders, average orator at best, Sanders' would have destroyed the Conservatives)!

[Shadows]

Corbyn vows no deals, no pacts if there is a hung parliament

Corbyn said: “We are not doing deals, we are not doing coalitions, we are not doing any of these things. We are fighting to win this election.” Thornberry went further and said: “We are fighting to win and we are fighting to win a majority. If we end up in a position where we are in a minority, then we will go ahead and put forward a Queen’s speech and a budget and, if people want to vote for it, then good, but if people don’t want to vote for it, then they are going to have to go back and speak to their constituents and explain to them why we have a Tory government instead. Those are the conversations we have had. No deals.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/01/corbyn-vows-no-deals-no-pacts-if-there-is-a-hung-parliament

[Kingpoleon]

Interesting isidewith results, probably because I marked all answers as "somewhat":

81% Labour
79% Liberal Democrats
78% SNP
75% Green
74% Plaid Cymru
63% Sinn Fein
56% Democratic Unionist
55% Libertarian
50% UKIP
48% Conservative
43% BNP

[Silent Hunter]

This won't go down well in middle England

It definitely won't. Sturgeon is particularly disliked in my social circle.

[Silent Hunter]

This won't go down well in middle England

It definitely won't. Sturgeon is particularly disliked in my social circle.

[Silent Hunter]

This won't go down well in middle England

It definitely won't. Sturgeon is particularly disliked in my social circle.

[Shadows]

Interesting isidewith results, probably because I marked all answers as "somewhat":

81% Labour
79% Liberal Democrats
78% SNP
75% Green
74% Plaid Cymru
63% Sinn Fein
56% Democratic Unionist
55% Libertarian
50% UKIP
48% Conservative
43% BNP

Maybe you should re-take the Political Compass test. Your results may come out a bit different from your signature !

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Craig Mackinlay of Thanet South being charged for expenses fraud in the 2015 GE

[Shadows]

8 ways Jeremy Corbyn is winning

Labour discipline

The Labour Party has run a traditional left-wing “giveaway” campaign. Tory campaign insiders, who spoke on condition of anonymity, have been impressed with its “discipline.” “This is what Corbyn enjoys doing. This is what he is good at. He is doing stump speeches and a rousing call to arms. This is what won him the Labour leadership twice. He is in his natural turf.

Theresa May

May has performed poorly. Hesitant, wooden and inflexible, the prime minister has proved a weak campaigner. The theory among Tory MPs (and Labour “moderates” opposed to Corbyn) was the more the public saw of Corbyn the more they would dislike him. If anything, it is May who has proved a turnoff. With just a week to go, her lead over Corbyn when pollsters asked people who would make the best prime minister has shrunk to 13 percent, down 4 percentage points in a week and fueled by a surge in support for Labour that’s taken the party to within 3 points of the Tories in one poll.

The youth vote

Many of those who turned up at the rally in Reading were young people — and that has been mirrored across the country. But the big question for the Labour Party is whether they will actually turn out to vote. Previous poll boosts believed to be from young voters — including “Cleggmania” for Nick Clegg and “Milifandom” for Ed Miliband — failed to materialize on election day.

http://www.politico.eu/article/8-ways-jeremy-corbyn-is-winning/

[Shadows]

House of Cards' Twitter account brilliantly trolls Theresa May over TV debate

Theresa May was accused by her rivals of “running away” from the debate as she sent Home Secretary Amber Rudd to appear in her place. But she was also trolled by a less likely culprit: the official Twitter account of Netflix’s hit US political drama House of Cards. The account posted: “@theresa_may They respect you more when you show strength. Or show up”, along with a GIF of star Kevin Spacey walking into the US Senate.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/house-of-cards-twitter-account-brilliantly-trolls-theresa-may-over-tv-debate-a3554041.html

From landslide win to upset defeat: Scenarios for PM Theresa May in the British election


Theresa May 'refuses to take part in local and regional interviews'

Theresa May has reportedly refused to take part in a series of local radio interviews in the run up to the general election. The prime minister is also said to have cancelled interviews with regional political editors at the BBC.

“Jeremy Corbyn and the leaders of Green, LD and UKIP have all responded to BBC interview requests for the Local Radio network – as well as interviews with regional TV political editors,” the email reads.  “Today, I learn that Mrs May’s team have confirmed she won’t be doing the same. No Local Radio interviews (not even a pooled one for the network), no regional political editors interviews and no interview for the All England Show (a networked evening programme across the LR stations)."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2017-theresa-may-local-interviews-regional-radio-conservative-campaign-a7768501.html

[jaichind]

Ipsos MORI Pol


CON   45
LAB    40
LIB      7

Not sure if they did not ask UKIP or just fail to publish it

[parochial boy]

FWIW, the last YouGov (the 3 point lead) was based on an 18-24 year old turnout of 51% - nowhere near the heights that people have been claiming.

The polls maybe (I suspect they still are) completely overestimating Labour support, but can we please stop the unskewing and claiming that it is purely down to a huge increase in young voters who won't turn out on the day? The narrowing goes well beyond that.

[Silent Hunter]

Ipsos MORI Pol


CON   45
LAB    40
LIB      7

Not sure if they did not ask UKIP or just fail to publish it

That looks odd...  possible, but very odd.

[Baki]

June 8th cannot come soon enough.

Really looking forward to it.

[jaichind]

Ipsos MORI Pol


CON   45
LAB    40
LIB      7

Not sure if they did not ask UKIP or just fail to publish it

That looks odd...  possible, but very odd.

Yeah, now you mention it, 45+40+7= 92.  I will assume this is a GB poll and not a UK poll.  You figure SNP+PC should be around 5, that leaves Greens+UKIP to be 3 at most which sounds low.

[ApatheticAustrian]

since i detest both candidates, i would love a hanging parliament.

[IceAgeComing]

the vast majority of polls are GB only; there's one company that includes NI for... some reason; but I can't remember exactly which one it is.  Its the only sensible way to do polling; considering that the only major party that sits in NI gets virtually zero votes so there's no point in including an NI sample just to get a bunch of others.

[Polkergeist]

Here are the rest of the Ipsos poll figures

UKIP 2
Grn 2
Rest (incl SNP) 4

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/870602256214839299/photo/1

[IceAgeComing]

There's also a "new" Scottish poll from BMG that has been released but I'm not even going to bother posting the numbers here; the fieldwork ended on the 18th May so its the best part of three weeks old and there are a couple of Scottish polls that have been released since there, which I think give a much more accurate position considering the moves in the campaign since then.

[IceAgeComing]

The Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction ratings on that Ipsos/MORI poll are pretty big:

May: 43/50 (!!!!)
Corbyn: 39/50
Farron: 25/44
Nuttall: 18/55 (lol)

Preferred Prime Minister is 50% May and 35% Corbyn which isn't good for May (she's down 11%, Corbyn is up 12%).

If this is where we are then we're starting to see the only real advantage that the Tories have over Labour reduce heavily in importance - in terms of approval ratings in that poll the gap between May and Corbyn is within the MOE which isn't something that I thought would have happened.  I mean he's still behind and that's not good but not a chasm anymore.  I still think that we'll get a slightly increased Tory majority but I think that the chances of a Labour improvement are getting higher as time goes on...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

May is probably going to be at subterranean levels in a year or two, especially if the press turn on her Major style.

[mvd10]

but strong and stable

[IceAgeComing]

May is probably going to be at subterranean levels in a year or two, especially if the press turn on her Major style.

The way that they've managed to throw that away really is pretty damn impressive...

[ApatheticAustrian]

with the wage stagnation and the rising unemployment and inflation and the decreasing growth, a lacking political mandate would be extra fun for brexit negotiations....

....even while scotland could still create a massive tory-mentum.