UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway if you want some sobering facts - just in case you really are getting carried away - consider the following: in 2015 Labour won ninety eight fewer seats than the Tories and were ninety four seats short of a majority. The swing needed to pull of this feat is just shy of 9pts. The sort of swing needed for a minority backed by the various Nationalist parties (and it's questionable whether this would actually happen for various reasons) is just shy of 4pts. You will note that even the latter figure is double that suggested by even the eyebrow-raising GB YouGov polls. Note also that in order for the government to lose its functional majority - because in practice the Unionists are absolutely part of it - the required swing is 2pts. Most polls, of course, have the swing going the other way.

If the Tories really do make significant gains in Scotland then the latter two required numbers both get a little higher.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Still, one must admit that when the election was called that is a post that I did not expect there to be any need to write.

[jaichind]

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/ashcroft-model-update-new-potential-majorities-seat-seat-estimates/

Ashcroft model gives Conservatives 355 seats, down from 396 last week, for potential majority of 60

[WMS]

Please take your sh!tposts elsewhere sh!tposters. You are not welcome here.

Something something the Conservatives would be liberals in America something something Liberal Democrats are clearly the party of the left something something conservative working class coal miners something something Evangelicals are always conservatives in Britain something something Labour is doomed forever something something blah blah blah. There Al, that should cover everything.

Personally, I think you have a, what's the expression, a dog's breakfast to choose from this election. Not as bad of a dog's breakfast as what America had last November, but that's obvious.

[Hnv1]

The Guardian endorses Labour which must be a bit hard to some up there in the smoggy tower. Anymore newspapers endorsed today? It will be interesting to see who the independent and the times opt for

[IceAgeComing]

Times will be Tory (...when was the last time they didn't endorse the Tories?) and the Independent will probably be Liberal - they went "Liberal/Tory coalition" in 2015 and I can't see them going Tory even if their owners want them to...

[ProgressiveCanadian]

May the new Hillary Clinton?

[Shadows]

The Ipsos poll has no breakup, age wise, area wise, gender wise & it is very difficult to say if it is credible. But this poll doesn't look good for May, if you look at the details -

For Undecided/Refused to answer - Which party are you inclined to support?

Conservative 40%, Labour 43%, Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 9%


                           Satisfied           Dissatisfied            Don’t know          Net
Government            38                      53                         8                  -15



Have you definitely decided to vote for the ………. party or is there a chance you may change your
mind before you vote?  

Party              Definitely decided (%)             May change mind (%)             Don’t know (%)
Tory(June)                   75                                           23                                      2
Tory (April)                  78                                           21                                      

Party              Definitely decided (%)             May change mind (%)             Don’t know (%)
Labour (June)                  76                                           21                                      3
Labour (April)                  56                                           43                                      1

 
Party              Definitely decided (%)             May change mind (%)             Don’t know (%)
Lib-dem (June)                  46                                           48                                      6
Lib-dem (April)                  40                                           60                                      0


Can you imagine Labour voters are more sure of voting for their party than Tories after all the civil war in Labour & so-called unity in Tories. And Lib-Dem has very delicate support with almost half of it could go anywhere. Given the huge share of Lib-Dem voters going to Labour & the convergence of manifesto, I think Labour will take more out of it (even Tories will get a lot of Lib-Dem voters). Why waste votes on Lib-Dem ?


Most capable PM?

              April          May           June
May -        61            56              50
Corbyn -    23            29              35

Past elections data -

Most capable PM (May 2015) -

Cameron - 42%
Mllibrand - 27%

Most capable PM (May 2010) -

Cameron - 33%
Brown - 29%

May's favorability -7%, Corbyn -11%

[Shadows]

PM accused of 'subservience' to Trump over climate move

Mr Corbyn criticised Mrs May for not signing a joint condemnation from France, Germany and Italy.
In a statement, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italy's Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni warned the US president that the Paris Agreement could not be renegotiated. They said they remained committed to the "irreversible" accord and regarded it as "a cornerstone in the co-operation between our countries, for effectively and timely tackling climate change".

At an election campaign event in York, he said: "Given the chance to present a united front from our international partners she [Mrs May] has instead opted for silence and once again subservience to Donald Trump."It's a dereliction of both her duty to this country and our duty to our planet. "This is not the type of leadership Britain needs either to negotiate Brexit or stand up to defend our planet in an era of climate change."

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40128356

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So this happened to-day:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-40129826

Please be very careful as how you comment on this story

[Phony Moderate]

The Ipsos poll has no breakup, age wise, area wise, gender wise & it is very difficult to say if it is credible.

It does, but it's in a difficult format; it requested WinRAR when I tried to open it.

Ipsos-MORI (well, it was just the latter until a few years ago when it merged with Ipsos) is, btw, the oldest player in town when it comes to British polling. 

[Shadows]

The Ipsos poll has no breakup, age wise, area wise, gender wise & it is very difficult to say if it is credible.

It does, but it's in a difficult format; it requested WinRAR when I tried to open it.

Ipsos-MORI (well, it was just the latter until a few years ago when it merged with Ipsos) is, btw, the oldest player in town when it comes to British polling. 

Can you type the age, gender, area wise voting for different parties etc break-up when you get some time as well as the Voting % considered for Young people, so that we can see if there are some shifts happening !

[IceAgeComing]

Crosstabs are useless,  stop taking them seriously.

We have a KEY ENDORSEMENT here:



Labour have defo won lads, that confirms it!

[Phony Moderate]

The Ipsos poll has no breakup, age wise, area wise, gender wise & it is very difficult to say if it is credible.

It does, but it's in a difficult format; it requested WinRAR when I tried to open it.

Ipsos-MORI (well, it was just the latter until a few years ago when it merged with Ipsos) is, btw, the oldest player in town when it comes to British polling. 

Can you type the age, gender, area wise voting for different parties etc break-up when you get some time as well as the Voting % considered for Young people, so that we can see if there are some shifts happening !

It wouldn't let me open it even after unWINRARing it, sorry.

[Helsinkian]

Amazing how far Corbyn has come...this guy was a laughing stock who repeatedly got trolled in the house of commons and now he's almost winning while turning May into the bumbling idiot she is.

And if Labour's surge turns out to be a polling error, he will return to being a laughingstock.

[Silent Hunter]

He hasn't won yet and remember everyone that Labour is still behind in the polls.

[Del Tachi]

For some reason over the past couple days have been starting to feel very bearish on the Tories' chances.  I think it'll be bad night for May (whatever that looks like).

Nothing to base this on, just a gut feeling.

[thumb21]

Amazing how far Corbyn has come...this guy was a laughing stock who repeatedly got trolled in the house of commons and now he's almost winning while turning May into the bumbling idiot she is.

And if Labour's surge turns out to be a polling error, he will return to being a laughingstock.

Even if the polling is dramatically overrepresenting Labour, it's severely unlikely that they would fall down back to the 24% that they were polling before. Polls in Britain are bad, but not 14 points bad.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Tonight's BBC debate was one of the best in this campaign..
May struggled in social care.. and Corbyn was destroyed in Trident...

Jeremy Corbyn is asked about Trident

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWt3rS27vzY

"Would you nuke another country?"

"No, you sick freak."

wow owned

[Silent Hunter]

Except he didn't actually say that. He said no to first use, then waffled on retaliation...

[parochial boy]

Corbyn won't retaliate to a nuclear attack that isn't going to happen? outrageous!

[afleitch]

If I lived in 1983 I'd be concerned.

[Silent Hunter]

Corbyn won't retaliate to a nuclear attack that isn't going to happen? outrageous!

He does have to write the letters of last resort if he becomes PM, so this is not a non-issue.

[parochial boy]

Corbyn won't retaliate to a nuclear attack that isn't going to happen? outrageous!

He does have to write the letters of last resort if he becomes PM, so this is not a non-issue.

Apologies for the sh!tposting and may I forgiven and all, but it is a total non-issue, because no-one is going to nuke the UK.

Deciding to vote against the party that is best for yourself, and best for the country, because of some hypothetical situation that has absolutely zero chance of happening is completely insane.

I mean, people go on about "muh the establishment" all the time, and now you've got someone who's offering something genuinely different, and who is standing up, saying what he believes even when he knows its unpopular, and everyone goes back to "oh he's clearly not fit to run the country, let's go back to bashing immigrants instead".

I was sceptical about Corbyn even one month ago, but come on, saying "I won't use nukes" is not a sign of weakness...