UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Hnv1]

I wonder if this will be the first election since 79 Lab+Con break 80%

[jaichind]

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/ashcroft-model-update-potential-majorities-seat-seat-estimates/

Ashcroft Sees Potential UK CON Majority of 64 Seats with majority be as small as 48 if turnout on June 8 includes all voters who took part in Brexit referendum, or as large as 78 if turnout is limited to those who voted in 2015 general election.

[jaichind]

I wonder if this will be the first election since 79 Lab+Con break 80%

I was thinking the same.  On details is how do we count vote share? UK or GB.  Most polls are in GB terms.

[EnglishPete]

I wonder if this will be the first election since 79 Lab+Con break 80%

I was thinking the same.  On details is how do we count vote share? UK or GB.  Most polls are in GB terms.

Vote share is always UK - its a UK wide election - whilst polling is never done UK wide, only GB wide.

[jaichind]

I wonder if this will be the first election since 79 Lab+Con break 80%

I was thinking the same.  On details is how do we count vote share? UK or GB.  Most polls are in GB terms.

Vote share is always UK - its a UK wide election - whilst polling is never done UK wide, only GB wide.

Agreed.  My point is if polls has CON+LAB at just around 80% (for GB) we should view it as falling below 80% UK-side since we have to factor in the fact that LAB will get 0% and CON will get near 0% in NI.

[jaichind]

I played around with the Ashcroft model.  It seems it has LIB going down to 3 seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can we perhaps please not post actual dead cat smear stories here? Why the fyck are so many of you, longtime posters often and people who should know better, so committed to turning to turning this place into a festering sewer?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And I'd say the same if someone linked to some paranoid sh!t in the fycking Canary and if people responded it to it with apparent seriousness. If this is the sort of thing you people here like now, fine. Have fun with it. Just don't expect anyone to be sorry when it gnaws away and your insides and leaves you a worthless emotionally barren husk.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just don't expect anyone to be sorry when it gnaws away and your insides and leaves you a worthless emotionally barren husk.

For some people in this thread, I think that's already too late.

[MaxQue]

Corbyn/Labour might come into serious trouble in the final days:

(... enter pictures of Corbyn addressing an Islamic terrorist group back in 2002 ...)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

F***ing incredible.

He is what he is.

If he was to come to power, it would potentially create a world crisis. I think that'll weigh heavily on voters' minds when they vote. As well as potential coalition partners'.

I think the Tories and May might be slightly too nice on Corbyn right now.

It would be better if she'd portray him more as the terrorist-cuddling traitor to the country that he is - while pointing out that she's leading the country through a difficult period (allthough she didn't do anything wrong).

That's why May has been trying to do non-stop since the beginning of the campaign, without success because people care more about economy and healthcare, on which she has a weak record.

[DavidB.]

That's why May has been trying to do non-stop since the beginning of the campaign, without success because people care more about economy and healthcare, on which she has a weak record.

Remains to be seen. The Tories are still expected to gain seats.

[MaxQue]

That's why May has been trying to do non-stop since the beginning of the campaign, without success because people care more about economy and healthcare, on which she has a weak record.

Remains to be seen. The Tories are still expected to gain seats.

Well, I suppose the Tory plan was to use that and win in a landslide. In any case, less effective than expected.

[DavidB.]

I think this election was never about winning a huge number of seats (even if that was indeed expected and seen as a nice side-effect) and always about buying time (i.e. two years) in government to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit. Suppose Brexit goes wrong and there is an election in 2020. Voters would (rightfully) blame the Tories and they could have been out of power for more than a decade.

[parochial boy]

I think this election was never about winning a huge number of seats (even if that was indeed expected and seen as a nice side-effect) and always about buying time (i.e. two years) in government to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit. Suppose Brexit goes wrong and there is an election in 2020. Voters would (rightfully) blame the Tories and they could have been out of power for more than a decade.

Given that there was absolutely, positively, definitely going to be an election until the Tories had a 20 point polling lead, that seems kind of hard to imagine

[MaxQue]

I think this election was never about winning a huge number of seats (even if that was indeed expected and seen as a nice side-effect) and always about buying time (i.e. two years) in government to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit. Suppose Brexit goes wrong and there is an election in 2020. Voters would (rightfully) blame the Tories and they could have been out of power for more than a decade.

Honestly, if Brexit goes wrong, it won't be better in 2022 than in 2020.

[Devout Centrist]

I think this election was never about winning a huge number of seats (even if that was indeed expected and seen as a nice side-effect) and always about buying time (i.e. two years) in government to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit. Suppose Brexit goes wrong and there is an election in 2020. Voters would (rightfully) blame the Tories and they could have been out of power for more than a decade.

Yeah well, if this backfires and they end up with a coalition or a minority, the Tories are far worse off.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I'm clear: if human rights laws get in the way of tackling extremism and terrorism, we will change those laws to keep British people safe.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/872181737933217794

[TheSaint250]

Opinium final polll:
CON 43 (=)
LAB 36 (-1)
LD 8 (+2)
UKIP 5 (=)
GRN 2(=)
SNP 5 (=)

4th-6th June
N=3,002

The Conservatives retain a 2-to-1 lead on trust on the economy


Despite a Conservative lead nationally, ethnic minorities are dividing clearly in favour of Labour


Jeremy Corbyn has continued to improve his personal ratings throughout the campaign


Labour is now the most trusted party to lead the Brexit negotiations amongst Remain voters

That first pic disproves the point some others were making that more people could vote Labour based on economic issues.

[parochial boy]

That first pic disproves the point some others were making that more people could vote Labour based on economic issues.

Sort of, but well, sort of not - it really comes down to the question the pollsters ask (and the fact that what we call "economic issues" is a gross oversimplification.

For example, one of the other pollsters has been asking "whose policies are best for you and your family" and showing a small Labour lead. Now this is a question that implcitely talks about economic issues, and the implication that people read into it is likely to be "under which party will you feel best off under"

In contrast, the "who would run the economy better" question is getting people to look at it from a slightly different angle, that is more concerned about macroeconomic indicators like economic growth or unemployment and the like, which most people see the Tories as being better at.

So both deal with economic issues, but from different angles, which leads to differing responses.

To add to that, I don't think there is really much disputing the fact that Labour's rise in the polls is down to the fact that the campaign has very much focused on bread and butter (ie economic) issues like healthcare, taxes, benefits, nationalisation of industries and so on. On many of these issues, Labour do have widespread public support, see this poll on support for nationalisation from a few weeks ago.

[Pericles]

It's really illuminating that Corbyn is mainly campaigning in Labour-held seats. While Labour is playing up their chances of victory in public,  they really think they are likely to lose, the question is how badly they lose.

[ApatheticAustrian]

It's really illuminating that Corbyn is mainly campaigning in Labour-held seats. While Labour is playing up their chances of victory in public,  they really think they are likely to lose, the question is how badly they lose.

the implosion of UKIP made that outcome far more likely to be sure.

in a non-majorital system this would be different.

[IceAgeComing]

Perceived economic competence is a question that the Tories always win on though - the only times they probably didn't were 1945 (the stink of the post-depression period was one of the big reasons why Labour won; the others being a collective remembrance of the shocking way in which WW1 veterans were treated after the war by the Tory-dominated Coalition government, and also the fact that they were actively involved in the war time coalition government which reassured many groups of people who don't normally vote Labour - there's a reason why lots of bits of the country voted Labour in 1945 and then never again did) and from a period roughly between Black Wednesday and the 2007 recession where the Tories were the party of Black Wednesday, high interest rates and high unemployment.  Sure, the numbers would have to be better than that for Labour to win an election, but that ought to be noted.

I'm clear: if human rights laws get in the way of tackling extremism and terrorism, we will change those laws to keep British people safe.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/872181737933217794

This stuff is genuinely terrifying and hopefully it doesn't fool anyone.  This is something that she's wanted to do for years - it was blocked in their first term by the Liberals (one of the few good things they did, really); in their second term by the fact that they had a small majority; lets hope that this time whatever majority they get is small enough that they can't get a repeal of the ECHR through the commons.

This is probably the worst part about May's conservative party; this creeping authoritarianism and nationalism that seeks to get people to vote their rights away.  I mean Cameron's Tory party was bad and did start to go along this route; but a lot of that push was by May and she's not in control of the whole thing...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It's quite funny that Corbyn might actually beat Blair in 2005 in the popular vote and still lose to the Tories substantially. Even though I can't stand Corbyn and his ilk it really goes to show how dysfunctional FPTP is.   

[DavidB.]

It's quite funny that Corbyn might actually beat Blair in 2005 in the popular vote and still lose to the Tories substantially. Even though I can't stand Corbyn and his ilk it really goes to show how dysfunctional FPTP is.

Mainly due to the fact that the Lib Dems got 22% in that election and will get about 15% fewer in this election. The continuous underrepresentation of third parties absolutely makes FPTP undemocratic, but I don't think Labour falling short of a majority this time while winning in 2005 with about the same share of the vote proves that point by itself (but perhaps you implied all this ).

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think this election was never about winning a huge number of seats (even if that was indeed expected and seen as a nice side-effect) and always about buying time (i.e. two years) in government to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit. Suppose Brexit goes wrong and there is an election in 2020. Voters would (rightfully) blame the Tories and they could have been out of power for more than a decade.

I think the reason she called an election was for both reasons ,to win a huge majority and to buy the tories more time . If tories had gotten the 140 + majority they were supposed to get ,they likely would have had a large enough majority to last at least until 2027 , which would mean the affecs of brexit even if its negative wouldn't sink the tories .